Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

    The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile,and The Bed of Procrustes.

    But the full impact of the crises we have recently faced will create far more problems, and unless you're prepared, you'll struggle to regain your financial footing.In The Great Reflation, author Tony Boeckh helps you understand how these crises, and the policies passed to jumpstart the economy, will play out for investments and business, and provides you with the tools to excel in today's rapidly evolving financial landscape. He reveals how similar episodes compare with the current crises and what this could mean for your financial future.Arms you with practical insights that will allow you to evaluate different investment options Explores the implications of the end of the private debt cycle, the possible rise of a new age of thrift, and the new government debt crisis Reveals how you can profit from once-in-a-lifetime opportunities as well as proper portfolio allocation strategies While things may never return to "normal," you can still make choices that will allow you to prosper. This book will show you how.

    Her approach to telling the truestories of famous investment 'scams' will keep the readerspellbound, while teaching the investor many cruciallessons.--David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent BearFundSelling short is still a misunderstood discipline, but even themost raging bull needs to know this valuable technique to masterthe ever-changing markets.--Jim Rogers, author, InvestmentBikerOn the investment playing field, there is perhaps no game moreexciting than short selling. With the right moves, it can yieldhigh returns; one misstep, however, can have disastrousconsequences. Despite the risk, a growing number of players areanteing up, sparked in part by success stories such as that ofGeorge Soros and the billions he netted by short selling theBritish pound. In The Art of Short Selling, Kathryn Staley, anexpert in the field, examines the essentials of this importantinvestment vehicle, providing a comprehensive game plan with whichyou can effectively play--and win--the short selling game.Whether used as a means of hedging bets, decreasing the volatilityof total returns, or improving returns, short selling must behandled with care--and with the right know-how. As Staley pointsout, Short selling is not for the faint of heart. If a stock movesagainst the position holder, the effect on a portfolio and networth can be devastating. Investors need to understand the impacton their accounts as well as the consequences of getting bought inbefore they indulge in short selling. The Art of Short Sellingguides you--clearly and concisely--through the ins and outs of thishigh-risk, high-stakes game.The first--and most important--move in selling short is to identifyflaws in a business before its share prices drop. To help youtackle this key step, Staley shows you how to evaluate companyfinancial statements and balance sheets, make sense of returnratios, detect inconsistencies in inventory, and analyze thestatement of cash flows. Through real-world examples thatillustrate the shorting of bubble, high multiple growth, and themestocks, you'll proceed step by step through the complete processand learn to carry out all the essentials for a successful shortsell, including quantifying the risk factor and orchestratingcorrect timing, as well as implementing advanced valuationtechniques to execute the sell/buy.Packed with landmark, cutting-edge examples, up-to-the-minuteguidelines, and pertinent regulations, The Art of Short Selling isa timely and comprehensive reference that arms you with thenecessary tools to make a prepared and confident entrance onto theshort selling playing field.

    Continuing the theme of the Investing for Adults series, this full-length finance title is not for beginners, but rather assumes a fair degree of quantitative ability and finance knowledge. If you think you can time the market or pick stocks and mutual fund managers, or even if you think that you can formulate an optimally efficient mean-variance asset allocation with a black box, then learn some basic finance and come back in a few years.On the other hand, if you know your way around risk premiums and standard deviations and know who Irving Fisher and Benjamin Graham were, and if you want to sharpen your asset class skills, you’ve come to the right place.

    By showing you how to build a simple and rational portfolio and tailor it to your specific needs, "Investing Demystified "will help you generate superior returns.With his straightforward and jargon-free advice, Lars Kroijer simplies the often complex world of finance and tells you everything you need to know and everything that you don t need to worry about in order to make the most from your investments.In "Investing Demystified "you will: Discover the mix of stocks, bonds and cash needed for a top performing portfolio Learn why the most broadly diversi_ ed and simplest portfolio makes the most sense Understand the right level of risk for you and how this affects your investments Find out why a low cost approach will yield bene_ ts whilst leaving you with a higher quality portfolio Understand the implications of tax and liquidity"

    Excellent for beginners or experienced investors, Nothing Down for the 2000s is the key to generating low-risk, high-profit wealth and to a potential future of security and financial independence.

    The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In Think Twice, Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps, including:-Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages-Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior-Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision-Relying too much on expertsSharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive.Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

    Why? BECAUSE THAT'S HOW WALL STREET WANTS IT"[T]he always irreverent author of the Reformed Broker blog has written an excellent narrative that shares all of your broker's dirty little secrets. Much like Michael Lewis' Liar's Poker captured the essence of 1980s institutional Wall Street, Brown's Backstage Wall Street recreates the boiler room retail brokerage culture of the 1990s and early 2000s in vivid color." --FORBES "With a smirk, a lashing wit, and an appropriate irreverence, Joshua Brown gives voice to what all investment professionals are--or should be--secretly thinking."--MICHAEL SANTOLI, Barron's columnist"The pages of this book are filled with colorful expos�s of misconduct in the way Wall Street presents and sells itself (and its financial products offerings!). . . . Run don't walk to read Brown's chronicles of deception [perpetrated by] those wonderful folks on Wall Street, who nearly bankrupted the world's fi nancial system a few short years ago."--DOUGLAS A. KASS, Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc."Everything you've ever read about Wall Street is a total lie. Everyone is lying to you every day. Until you read this book."--JAMES ALTUCHER, Formula Capital and author of I Was Blind but Now I See"Joshua wants Wall Street to be awesome. You can feel it every day on his amazing blog and in this great book. He is happy to shout when Wall Street drives him crazy. I guarantee you will enjoy this book that describes the action behind the business of Wall Street and his own experiences along the way."--HOWARD LINDZON, Lindzon Capital and founder of StockTwitsJoshua Brown may be the funniest writer on finance today, but Backstage Wall Street could make you cry more than laugh. The buffoons, manipulators, and incompetents Brown parades before us are the stewards of our retirement accounts....What's important is that investors understand the choices before them. Backstage Wall Street goes a long way to taking us backstage, while making us laugh in the process.--BARRON'SAbout the Book: Wall Street is very good at one thing: convincing you to act against your own interests. And there's no one out there better equipped with the knowledge and moxie to explain how it all works than Josh Brown. A man The New York Times referred to as "the Merchant of Snark" and Barron's called "pot-stirring and provocative," Brown worked for 10 years in the industry, a time during which he learned some hard truths about how clients are routinely treated--and how their money is sent on a one-way trip to Wall Street's coffers.Backstage Wall Street reveals the inner workings of the world's biggest money machine and explains how a relatively small confederation of brilliant, sometimes ill-intentioned people fuel it, operate it, and repair it when necessary--none of which is for the good of the average investor.Offering a look that only a long-term insider could provide (and that only a "reformed" insider would want to provide), Brown describes:THE PEOPLE--Why retail brokers always profit--even if you don't THE PRODUCTS--How funds, ETFs, and other products are invented as failsafe profit generators--for the inventors alone THE PITCH--The marketing schemes designed for one thing and one thing only: to separate you from your moneyIt's that bad . . . but there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Brown gives you the knowledge you need to make the right decisions at the right time.Backstage Wall Street is about seeing reality for what it is and adjusting your actions accordingly. It's about learning who and what to steer clear of at all times. And it's about setting the stage for a bright financial future--your own way.

    Baruch, a man whose life spanned the late nineteenth century and over half of the twentieth century. Given the time period, he is a man who has seen much having met seven presidents, witnessing two wars and working on Wall Street for a time. In these memoirs, Baruch has tried to set forth the philosophy through which he had sought to harmonize a readiness to risk something new with precautions against repeating the errors of the past.

    If you're serious about investing for the long run, you have to take a no-nonsense, businesslike approach to your portfolio. In addition to covering all the basics, this new edition of "All About Asset Allocation" includes timely advice on: Learning which investments work well together and why Selecting the right mutual funds and ETFs Creating an asset allocation that's right for your needs Knowing how and when to change an allocation Understanding target-date mutual funds"All About Asset Allocation offers advice that is both prudent and practical--keep it simple, diversify, and, above all, keep your expenses low--from an author who both knows how vital asset allocation is to investment success and, most important, works with real people." -- John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO, The Vanguard Group"With All About Asset Allocation at your side, you'll be executing a sound investment plan, using the best materials and wearing the best safety rope that money can buy." -- William Bernstein, founder, EfficientFrontier.com, and author, The Intelligent Asset Allocator

    Readers are treated to real, actionable guidance as the promise of behavioral finance is realised and practical applications for everyday investors are delivered.Crosby presents a framework of timeless principles for managing your behavior and your investing process. He begins by outlining ten rules that are the hallmarks of good investor behavior, including 'Forecasting is for Weathermen' and 'If You're Excited, It's Probably a Bad Idea'. He then goes on to introduce a unique new taxonomy of behavioral investment risk that will enable investors and academics alike to understand behavioral risk in a newly coherent and complete way.From here, attention turns to the four ways in which behavioral risk can be combatted and the five equity selection methods investors should harness to take advantage of behaviorally-induced opportunities in the stock market. Throughout, readers are treated to anecdotes, research and graphics that illustrate the lessons in memorable ways. And in highly valuable 'What now?' summaries at the end of each chapter, Crosby provides clear, concise direction on what investors should think, ask and do to benefit from the behavioral research.Dr. Crosby's training as a clinical psychologist and work as an asset manager provide a unique vantage and result in a book that breaks new ground in behavioral finance. You need to follow the laws of wealth to manage your behavior and improve your investing process!

    The book offers sound, practical advice, no matter what your age or net worth. Bottomline, become a Boglehead and prosper! Originally just the chat-line ruminations of Boglehead founder Taylor Larimore, and Morningstar forum leading cohorts Mel Lindauer and Michael LeBoeuf, their trusted advice has been brewed and distilled into an easy-to-use, need-to-know, no frills guide to building up your own financial well-being - so you can worry less and profit more from the investments you make. Invest like a Boglehead, and let their grassroots investment wisdom guide you down the path of long-term wealth creation and happiness, without all the worries and fuss of stock pickers and day traders. If you face a financial crisis or problem, or simply want to know what is prudent to do with the money you save, the Bogleheads will have the answers you need to help you gain your financial footing and keep it.

    It is intended for non-financial managers and business students interested in the practice of financial management.

    People used to download music for free, then Steve Jobs convinced them to pay. How? By charging 99 cents. That price has a hypnotic effect: the profit margin of the 99 Cents Only store is twice that of Wal-Mart. Why do text messages cost money, while e-mails are free? Why do jars of peanut butter keep getting smaller in order to keep the price the “same”? The answer is simple: prices are a collective hallucination. In Priceless, the bestselling author William Poundstone reveals the hidden psychology of value. In psychological experiments, people are unable to estimate “fair” prices accurately and are strongly influenced by the unconscious, irrational, and politically incorrect. It hasn’t taken long for marketers to apply these findings. “Price consultants” advise retailers on how to convince consumers to pay more for less, and negotiation coaches offer similar advice for businesspeople cutting deals. The new psychology of price dictates the design of price tags, menus, rebates, “sale” ads, cell phone plans, supermarket aisles, real estate offers, wage packages, tort demands, and corporate buyouts. Prices are the most pervasive hidden persuaders of all. Rooted in the emerging field of behavioral decision theory, Priceless should prove indispensable to anyone who negotiates.