Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Conventional wisdom long held that big name, highly athletic hitters and young pitchers with rocket arms were the ticket to success. But Beane and his staff, buoyed by massive amounts of carefully interpreted statistical data, believed that wins could be had by more affordable methods such as hitters with high on-base percentage and pitchers who get lots of ground outs. Given this information and a tight budget, Beane defied tradition and his own scouting department to build winning teams of young affordable players and inexpensive castoff veterans. Lewis was in the room with the A's top management as they spent the summer of 2002 adding and subtracting players and he provides outstanding play-by-play. In the June player draft, Beane acquired nearly every prospect he coveted (few of whom were coveted by other teams) and at the July trading deadline he engaged in a tense battle of nerves to acquire a lefty reliever. Besides being one of the most insider accounts ever written about baseball, Moneyball is populated with fascinating characters. We meet Jeremy Brown, an overweight college catcher who most teams project to be a 15th round draft pick (Beane takes him in the first). Sidearm pitcher Chad Bradford is plucked from the White Sox triple-A club to be a key set-up man and catcher Scott Hatteberg is rebuilt as a first baseman. But the most interesting character is Beane himself. A speedy athletic can't-miss prospect who somehow missed, Beane reinvents himself as a front-office guru, relying on players completely unlike, say, Billy Beane. Lewis, one of the top nonfiction writers of his era (Liar's Poker, The New New Thing), offers highly accessible explanations of baseball stats and his roadmap of Beane's economic approach makes Moneyball an appealing reading experience for business people and sports fans alike. --John Moe

    But they're unsure of how to sort through it and use it to make smart decisions. The result? They're struggling with profit-sapping supply chain problems including stock-outs, overstock, and discounting.It doesn't have to be that way. In The New Science of Retailing, supply chain experts Marshall Fisher and Ananth Raman explain how to use analytics to better manage your inventory for faster turns, fewer discounted offerings, and fatter profit margins.Featuring case studies of retailing exemplars from around the world, this practical new book shows you how to:· Mine your sales data to identify "homerun" products you're missing· Reinvent your forecasting and pricing strategies· Build end-to-end agility into your supply chain· Establish incentives that align your supply chain partners behind shared objectives· Extract maximum value from technologies such as point-of-sale scanners and customer loyalty cardsHighly readable and compelling, The New Science of Retailing is your playbook for turning all that data into a wellspring for new profits and unprecedented efficiency.

    Now that machine learning is thriving, even programmers who know close to nothing about this technology can use simple, efficient tools to implement programs capable of learning from data. This practical book shows you how.By using concrete examples, minimal theory, and two production-ready Python frameworks—Scikit-Learn and TensorFlow—author Aurélien Géron helps you gain an intuitive understanding of the concepts and tools for building intelligent systems. You’ll learn how to use a range of techniques, starting with simple Linear Regression and progressing to Deep Neural Networks. If you have some programming experience and you’re ready to code a machine learning project, this guide is for you.This hands-on book shows you how to use:Scikit-Learn, an accessible framework that implements many algorithms efficiently and serves as a great machine learning entry pointTensorFlow, a more complex library for distributed numerical computation, ideal for training and running very large neural networksPractical code examples that you can apply without learning excessive machine learning theory or algorithm details

    The cases in the 15th edition are excerpted and edited by the authors. The syntax is not altered, therefore retains the language of the courts. As in recent previous editions, the 15th edition includes a mix of actual AND hypothetical cases. This text is our most research-based Business Law text.

    It blends practical and theoretical coverage, while maintaining an appropriate rigor and a clear writing style. Its unifying theme is that security markets are nearly efficient, meaning that most securities are priced appropriately given their risk and return attributes. The text places greater emphasis on asset allocation and offers a much broader and deeper treatment of futures, options, and other derivative security markets than most investment texts. It is also the only graduate Investments text to offer an online homework management system, McGraw-Hill's "Connect Finance."

    But what if you could have your computer do them for you?In "Automate the Boring Stuff with Python," you'll learn how to use Python to write programs that do in minutes what would take you hours to do by hand no prior programming experience required. Once you've mastered the basics of programming, you'll create Python programs that effortlessly perform useful and impressive feats of automation to: Search for text in a file or across multiple filesCreate, update, move, and rename files and foldersSearch the Web and download online contentUpdate and format data in Excel spreadsheets of any sizeSplit, merge, watermark, and encrypt PDFsSend reminder emails and text notificationsFill out online formsStep-by-step instructions walk you through each program, and practice projects at the end of each chapter challenge you to improve those programs and use your newfound skills to automate similar tasks.Don't spend your time doing work a well-trained monkey could do. Even if you've never written a line of code, you can make your computer do the grunt work. Learn how in "Automate the Boring Stuff with Python.""

    Incorporating OD ethics and values into each chapter, Donald L. Anderson provides discussion of the real-world application of these theoretical ideas. In-depth case studies that follow major content chapters allow students to immediately apply what they have learned. In today's challenging environment of increased globalization, rapidly changing technologies, economic pressures, and expectations in the contemporary workforce, this book is an essential tool.

    In this handy guidebook, the authors contend that you manage your boss for a very good reason: to do your best on the job—and thereby benefit not only yourself but also your supervisor and your entire company. Your boss depends on you for cooperation, reliability, and honesty. And you depend on him or her for links to the rest of the organization, for setting priorities, and for obtaining critical resources. By managing your boss—clarifying your own and your supervisor's strengths, weaknesses, goals, work styles, and needs—you cultivate a relationship based on mutual respect and understanding. The result? A healthy, productive bond that enables you both to excel. Gabarro and Kotter provide valuable guidelines for building this essential relationship—including strategies for determining how your boss prefers to process information and make decisions, tips for communicating mutual expectations, and tactics for negotiating priorities. Thought provoking and practical, Managing Your Boss enables you to lay the groundwork for one of the most crucial working relationships you'll have in your career.

    The long-anticipated revision of this best-selling text offers the most comprehensive, up-to-date introduction to the theory and practice of artificial intelligence. *NEW-Nontechnical learning material-Accompanies each part of the book. *NEW-The Internet as a sample application for intelligent systems-Added in several places including logical agents, planning, and natural language. *NEW-Increased coverage of material - Includes expanded coverage of: default reasoning and truth maintenance systems, including multi-agent/distributed AI and game theory; probabilistic approaches to learning including EM; more detailed descriptions of probabilistic inference algorithms. *NEW-Updated and expanded exercises-75% of the exercises are revised, with 100 new exercises. *NEW-On-line Java software. *Makes it easy for students to do projects on the web using intelligent agents. *A unified, agent-based approach to AI-Organizes the material around the task of building intelligent agents. *Comprehensive, up-to-date coverage-Includes a unified view of the field organized around the rational decision making pa

    Data Governance should not be about command-and-control, yet at times could become invasive or threatening to the work, people and culture of an organization. Non-Invasive Data Governance™ focuses on formalizing existing accountability for the management of data and improving formal communications, protection, and quality efforts through effective stewarding of data resources. Non-Invasive Data Governance will provide you with a complete set of tools to help you deliver a successful data governance program. Learn how: Steward responsibilities can be identified and recognized, formalized, and engaged according to their existing responsibility rather than being assigned or handed to people as more work. Governance of information can be applied to existing policies, standard operating procedures, practices, and methodologies, rather than being introduced or emphasized as new processes or methods. Governance of information can support all data integration, risk management, business intelligence and master data management activities rather than imposing inconsistent rigor to these initiatives. A practical and non-threatening approach can be applied to governing information and promoting stewardship of data as a cross-organization asset. Best practices and key concepts of this non-threatening approach can be communicated effectively to leverage strengths and address opportunities to improve.

    Throughout the book the authors show how managers use financial theory to solve practical problems and as a way of learning how to respond to change by showing not just how but why companies and management act as they do. The text is comprehensive, authoritative, and modern and yet the material is presented at a common sense level. The discussions and illustrations are unique due to the depth of detail blended with a distinct sense of humor for which the book is well known and highly regarded. This text is a valued reference for thousands of practicing financial managers.

    A third revised edition of this study of the art and theories behind negotiation, which explores the psychology of bargaining, and the interpersonal conflicts and resolutions which occur during the process.

    The range covered reflects the breadth of design, from hardware and software design, to architecture and Formula One. The book offers new insights and understanding of design thinking, based on evidence from observation and investigation of design practice. Author Nigel Cross, considered one of design's most influential thinkers, goes to the heart of what it means to think and work as a designer. The book is an ideal guide for anyone who wants to be a designer or to know how good designers work in the field of contemporary design.

    It covers the basics of computer programming, including variables and values, functions, conditionals and control flow, program development and debugging. Later chapters cover basic algorithms and data structures.