The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

    The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with. Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed.

    Most important, they focus on the decisions we make every day and, using entertaining examples, provide invaluable tips on avoiding the financial faux pas that can cost thousands of dollars each year.

    Traditionally, creating a marketing plan has been a difficult and time-consuming process, which is why it often doesn't get done. In The 1-Page Marketing Plan, serial entrepreneur and rebellious marketer Allan Dib reveals a marketing implementation breakthrough that makes creating a marketing plan simple and fast. It's literally a single page, divided up into nine squares. With it you'll be able to map out your own sophisticated marketing plan and go from zero to marketing hero. Whether you're just starting out or are an experienced entrepreneur, The 1-Page Marketing Plan is the easiest and fastest way to create a marketing plan that will propel your business growth. In this groundbreaking new book you'll discover: • How to get new customers, clients, or patients and how make more profit from existing ones. • Why “big business” style marketing could kill your business and strategies that actually work for small and medium-sized businesses. • How to close sales without being pushy, needy, or obnoxious while turning the tables and having prospects begging you to take their money. • A simple step-by-step process for creating your own personalized marketing plan that is literally one page. Simply follow along and fill in each of the nine squares that make up your own 1-Page Marketing Plan. • How to annihilate competitors and make yourself the only logical choice. • How to get amazing results on a small budget using the secrets of direct response marketing. • How to charge high prices for your products and services and have customers actually thank you for it.

    And they often receive an incredible return on their investments. They’re angel investors, some of the most important—and least understood—players in business today, whose investments in startups exceed $20 billion per year. Many, if not most, of the world’s largest companies were originally funded by angels—companies like Apple, Microsoft, LinkedIn and Amazon.com.But until now, little has been written about these angels, due in part to their preference for anonymity. ANGEL INVESTING: The Gust Guide to Making Money and Having Fun Investing in Startups by David S. Rose provides an inside look at who these angels are, how they operate, and how anyone with six figures to invest can potentially generate annual returns of 25% while funding tomorrow’s industry leaders…and having a lot of fun in the process.In the past few years, angel investing has moved from an arcane, tiny backwater of the financial world to a business arena that receives coverage in mainstream newspapers and smash hit television shows such as ABC’s Shark Tank. Every year angels invest over $20 billion into startup companies in the US alone (and double that amount worldwide). Historically this been a virtually random activity, but over the past several years angel investing has begun to be recognized as a legitimate part of the Alternative Investments asset class. With a foreword by Reid Hoffman—co-founder of LinkedIn and a prolific angel investor himself—together with hard research studies and a host of stories from his personal experience as one of the world’s leading angels, Rose explains in this book precisely how angels and venture capitalists differ, describes proven ways for entrepreneurs to attract them, and provides all the relevant resources for investors to enter into the world of startup funding. Rose tackles all the challenging questions that have long confounded angel investors and the entrepreneurs seeking to attract them: • Who can be an angel…and who should be an angel?• Where do angels find hidden startup gems before the public hears about them?• How should an angel build a portfolio that can return 25% annually over a decade?• What is it like to lose all of an investor’s money? And, conversely, what does it feel like to invest in a failed startup as an angel investor? • What are some common mistakes that inexperienced angel investors make?Successful angels know that investing in entrepreneurial ventures is more than just providing money. ANGEL INVESTING is the first complete, up-to-date guide to the subject, including what angel investing is, how one gets started, how to find deal flow, evaluate opportunities, negotiate terms, join an angel group, structure investments, and work with venture capital funds. ANGEL INVESTING includes tools, tactics, and strategies for high-tech, low-tech, and every other kind of early-stage investing. Rose opens the doors to those angels who have limited experience, while augmenting the experience of seasoned investors. Entrepreneurs will gain access to the mind-set of winning angels, and learn how best to win them over, as well as finding information on how to value, structure and bring their companies to a successful exit.The combination of advancing technology, changing federal regulations, rapidly dropping startup costs and new online investment platforms means that it is now possible for any serious investor to undertake angel investing the right way—and that is what the book ANGEL INVESTING is all about.ABOUT DAVID S. ROSE:David S. Rose is an Inc. 500 CEO, serial entrepreneur and angel investor who has founded or funded over 90 pioneering companies. He has been described by Forbes as "New York's Archangel", by BusinessWeek as a “world conquering entrepreneur”, by Crain's New York Business as "the father of angel investing in New York", and by Red Herring magazine as “patriarch of Silicon Alley.”PRAISE FOR ANGEL INVESTING:"As an angel investor and a long-time fan of David S. Rose, I was delighted to hear he finally captured his wit and wisdom in the pages of a book. David is a born teacher — clear minded, witty and provocative, with amazing stories to illustrate every key idea and insight. Those gifts — as well as his unsurpassed knowledge of his field — are teaching me so much more about investing than I've learned over the years doing it! Read every page of Angel Investing."Barbara CorcoranReal Estate Mogul, Shark Tank star, Angel Investor“From the secret economics of angel investing and the best methods for finding and picking tomorrow’s big winners to proven techniques for adding value to any business you invest in, Angel Investing provides readers with everything they need to know to get started in this fascinating, fun—and lucrative—business arena.”David Bach#1 New York Times bestselling author of The Automatic Millionaire and Start Late Finish Rich, Angel Investor“This is the most comprehensive and readable guide to angel investing ever written. The chapter on valuation and expectations lays out a clear framework for understanding one of the least well-known pitfalls in the angel world. And its emphasis on creating a win-win relationship with the entrepreneur is at the heart of being a long-term successful angel—and continuing to see the best deal flow. I recommend this book to anyone even thinking about making or receiving angel investments.”Howard L. MorganFounding Partner, First Round Capital“The world of entrepreneurial startups is where the most exciting and creative action is happening in today’s business world, which is why I was a strong supporter of the JOBS Act of 2012. No wonder millions of people are wondering how they can get involved as investors. There’s no better place to start than by reading David S. Rose’s Angel Investing.”U.S. Senator Charles E. SchumerSenate Finance Committee“David S. Rose’s Angel Investing is the best book on early stage investing ever written. His method of step-by-step explanation is better than any I have read in 20+ years of professional angel investing. I will recommend this to every serious entrepreneur seeking investment as required reading before the effort.”Dave BerkusChairman Emeritus, Tech Coast Angels and Author of Berkonomics“Only an angel who has backed over 90 start-ups could possess the mastery to provide such illumination into our craft. David’s candor and insights will attract more investors to this entertaining and lucrative activity so essential to economic growth.”John HustonFounder & Manager, The OhioTechAngel Funds"Angel Investing is an engaging, easy read, full of real stories and hard numbers, actual cases and a whole lot of good advice. David S. Rose brings tons of real-world knowledge to the subject that makes this required reading for every new angel."Tim BerryAuthor of Business Plan Pro, Entrepreneur, Angel Investor"David S. Rose is one of the most insightful thinkers about the angel and venture investment markets. It's rare that an investment leader with so much experience and success takes the time to share (systematically!) his knowledge so openly. Whether you are new to angel investing or someone with lots of experience, you will learn a ton from reading this book."Marc BodnickCo-Founder, Elevation Partners“David S. Rose has distilled his vast knowledge into an easy to read yet comprehensive guide to angel investing. It is a must read for all angel investors as well as for entrepreneurs seeking angel financing.”Jeffrey SeltzerManaging Partner, Pierce Yates Ventures, Former Deputy Chairman, CIBC World Markets, Angel Investor"Anyone with a checkbook can be an angel investor, but it takes insight to do it well. David S. Rose has written a terrific new book that will help would-be angels make money, rather than lose it. From explaining the value of diversification, to tips on evaluating deals, to offering up plans to attract good deals, Angel Investing will help you move from a money-losing amateur to a money-making professional angel. And if you’re an entrepreneur looking for angel money, you should read this book too. It will help you understand what knowledgeable angels are seeking and how they will evaluate you."Scott ShaneAuthor of Fool’s Gold? The Truth Behind Angel Investing in America“The future of financial markets will be based on the democratization of capital, as the funding of innovation is no longer limited to large institutions and venture capitalists. Angel Investing is the definitive guidebook for visionary investors seeking to profit from the startups of today that will become the superstars of tomorrow. David S. Rose is both a brilliant futurist and an engaging, accessible writer, and his book reveals the secrets behind investing at the leading edge of technologies and markets."Faith PopcornFuturist, CEO and Author of The Popcorn Report

    Trading for a Living helps you master all of those three areas: * How to become a cool, calm, and collected trader * How to profit from reading the behavior of the market crowd * How to use a computer to find good trades * How to develop a powerful trading system * How to find the trades with the best odds of success * How to find entry and exit points, set stops, and take profits Trading for a Living helps you discipline your Mind, shows you the Methods for trading the markets, and shows you how to manage Money in your trading accounts so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game. To help you profit even more from the ideas in Trading for a Living, look for the companion volume--Study Guide for Trading for a Living. It asks over 200 multiple-choice questions, with answers and 11 rating scales for sharpening your trading skills. For example: Question Markets rise when * there are more buyers than sellers * buyers are more aggressive than sellers * sellers are afraid and demand a premium * more shares or contracts are bought than sold* I and II * II and III * II and IV * III and IV Answer B. II and III. Every change in price reflects what happens in the battle between bulls and bears. Markets rise when bulls feel more strongly than bears. They rally when buyers are confident and sellers demand a premium for participating in the game that is going against them. There is a buyer and a seller behind every transaction. The number of stocks or futures bought and sold is equal by definition.

    In its sweeping survey of the history of Internet search technologies, its gossip about and analysis of Google, and its speculation on the larger cultural implications of a Web-connected world, it will likely receive attention from a variety of businesspeople, technology futurists, journalists, and interested observers of mid-2000s zeitgeist. This ambitious book comes with a strong pedigree. Author John Battelle was a founder of The Industry Standard and then one of the original editors of Wired, two magazines which helped shape our early perceptions of the wild world of the Internet. Battelle clearly drew from his experience and contacts in writing The Search. In addition to the sure-handed historical perspective and easy familiarity with such dot-com stalwarts as AltaVista, Lycos, and Excite, he speckles his narrative with conversational asides from a cast of fascinating characters, such Google's founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin; Yahoo's, Jerry Yang and David Filo; key executives at Microsoft and different VC firms on the famed Sandhill road; and numerous other insiders, particularly at the company which currently sits atop the search world, Google. The Search is not exactly the corporate history of Google. At the book's outset, Battelle specifically indicates his desire to understand what he calls the cultural anthropology of search, and to analyze search engines' current role as the "database of our intentions"--the repository of humanity's curiosity, exploration, and expressed desires. Interesting though that beginning is, though, Battelle's story really picks up speed when he starts dishing inside scoop on the darling business story of the decade, Google. To Battelle's credit, though, he doesn't stop just with historical retrospective: the final part of his book focuses on the potential future directions of Google and its products' development. In what Battelle himself acknowledges might just be a "digital fantasy train", he describes the possibility that Google will become the centralizing platform for our entire lives and quotes one early employee on the weightiness of Google's potential impact: "Sometimes I feel like I am on a bridge, twenty thousand feet up in the air. If I look down I'm afraid I'll fall. I don't feel like I can think about all the implications." Some will shrug at such words; after all, similar hype has accompanied other technologies and other companies before. Many others, though, will search Battelle's story for meaning--and fast. --Peter Han

    NEW.

    But concern over what Louis Brandeis called the "curse of bigness" can no longer remain the province of specialist lawyers and economists, for it has spilled over into policy and politics, even threatening democracy itself. History suggests that tolerance of inequality and failing to control excessive corporate power may prompt the rise of populism, nationalism, extremist politicians, and fascist regimes. In short, as Wu warns, we are in grave danger of repeating the signature errors of the twentieth century.In The Curse of Bigness, Columbia professor Tim Wu tells of how figures like Brandeis and Theodore Roosevelt first confronted the democratic threats posed by the great trusts of the Gilded Age--but the lessons of the Progressive Era were forgotten in the last 40 years. He calls for recovering the lost tenets of the trustbusting age as part of a broader revival of American progressive ideas as we confront the fallout of persistent and extreme economic inequality.

    Get a grip and gain control with the Entrepreneurial Operating System (EOS). Inside Traction, you’ll discover simple yet powerful ways to run your company with more focus, growth and enjoyment. Based on years of real-world implementation, the EOS is a practical method for achieving the business success you have always envisioned.

    In it, self-made multimillionaire and bestselling author Masterson shares the knowledge he has gained from creating and expanding numerous businesses and outlines a focused strategy for guiding a small business through the four stages of entrepreneurial growth. Along the way, Masterson teaches you the different skills needed in order to excel in this dynamic environment.

    No more excuses. Learn how to start something stupid—the smartest thing you can do.Drawing on years of research, including hundreds of face-to-face interviews and some of the world’s greatest success stories past and present, Richie shows you how stupid is the New Smart—the common denominator for success, creativity, and innovation in business and life.

    

    have gained an enormously valuable informal education. The letters distill in plain words all the basic principles of sound business practices.

    From this front row seat, you'll see one of the greatest wealth-building records in history unfold, year by year.If you're looking for dusty old investment theory, there are hundreds of other books waiting to cure you of insomnia. However, if you're looking for an investing book that's as personal as it is revelatory, look no further.Packed with Buffett and Munger's timeless, generous, and often hilarious wisdom, University of Berkshire Hathaway will keep serious investors turning pages late into the night:• Get unique insight into the thinking, strategies, and decisions--both good and bad--that made Buffett and Munger two of the world's greatest investors. • Understand the critical reasoning that leads Buffett and Munger to purchase a particular company, including their methods for assigning value.• Learn the central tenets of Buffett's value-investing philosophy "straight from the horse's mouth."• Enjoy Munger's biting wit as he goes after any topic that offends him.• Discover Buffett's distaste for "commonly accepted strategies" like modern portfolio theory.• See why these annual meetings are often called "an MBA in a weekend."