Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    A career book that helps readers get the most of the job search process using recruiters.

    But with confusing things like GDP and interest rates, it's often hard to get you head around.So What do you really need to know about economics? Find out:What economic growth is and why it matters How inflation happens How jobs are created and lost How the property market works What central banks do and how it affects the rest of us The impact of government spending on the economy What You Need to Know About Economics cuts through the theory to help you to do your job and understand the world around you better.Read More in the What You Need to Know Series and Ger Up to Speed on The Essentials... Fast.

    Providing strategies and solutions for the managers of today, this book offers answers for improving employee commitment and profitability by strategically acknowledging employee effort. How is it done? The deceptively simply answer: with carrots.

    This quick read is a must for new managers -- and also for senior managers who are seeking a framework to help newer managers avoid the common mistakes." - Dave Stachowiak, Host of the ‘Coaching for Leaders’ podcast Do you feel stressed and overwhelmed with tasks that you can’t keep up with? Are you struggling with the delegation of work to your employees?  Effective Delegation of Authority is a brief guide for new managers that will help you improve your delegation skills in simple steps.If you’re a manager or entrepreneur who leads three or more employees, then this book is for you.It’s a super-short book that’ll help you avoid the common mistakes that new managers make when delegating tasks.It includes a comprehensive step-by-step process that tells you exactly what to do before delegation, during delegation, and after delegation.You’ll also get immediately applicable tactics that you can implement straightway with your subordinates. Here’s a partial list of what’s covered:  How to determine what to delegate to your employees before starting the delegation process The method you should follow to decide who to delegate work to on your team The five traits that every task should have before you delegate it.  How to describe authority levels the right way before you delegate work How to avoid micromanaging your employees How to check in with your subordinates and give them meaningful feedback.  How to avoid being too prescriptive, while still giving your employees a good description of what they need to accomplish The most important thing you should do after you delegate a task to verify understanding Some examples of delegation to help you understand the concepts better A downloadable sample delegation template and one-page cheat sheet that you can use as quick reference guides The book is divided into three sections that will serve as your new manager checklist:   Section I: Before Delegation Step One: Determine What to Delegate Step Two: Determine Who to Delegate to Section II: During Delegation Step One: Explain the Task Clearly Step Two: Describe Goals, Not Actions Step Three: Give Clear Timelines

    The answers aren't easy -- just incredibly successful.

    The betrayal cut so deeply that Versace had vowed never to love again. It was just about her and her babies for now on. However, her brother's friend may change all that. Hurricane Katrina has taught Dior LaCroix that nothing in that life is promised to anyone. So, when Ferrari's little sister, Versace comes into his life, Dior wants to shoot his shot. But there's only one problem... she's mean as hell. Versace got Dior breaking down every emotional wall that her baby daddy has put up. Will Dior and Versace's hood love be able to survive Versace's distrust, or will it phase out as quickly as Versace's temper? Jump into this standalone of when a hood nigga meets a project chick, New Orleans style. Ain't nothing like hood love.

    The aim here is not to motivate you to get started, but to educate the various possibilities of getting things done. Hence the ideal reader is someone who has a product / service in their mind, completed their business calculations, is willing to manage the risks and just about to get started. Right from naming your company, registering it, banking, taxation through selling your products / services, this book will guide you on how to get it done in a quicker and affordable manner. Entrepreneurship is a journey. It needs proper fundamentals and systems in place to run the distance. The founder must plan well ahead while starting up or be willing to adapt to changes as the company grows. I sincerely hope this book will give that initial clarity, help you explore the possibilities and get started quickly.

    Tech companies in general lack the experience, tools, texts, and frameworks to do it well. And the handful of books that share tips and tricks of engineering management don t explain how to supervise employees in the face of growth and change.In this book, author Camille Fournier takes you through the stages of technical management, from mentoring interns to working with the senior staff. You ll get actionable advice for approaching various obstacles in your path, whether you re a new manager, a mentor, or a more experienced leader looking for fresh advice. Pick up this book and learn how to become a better manager and leader in your organization. * Discover how to manage small teams and large/multi-level teams * Understand how to build and bootstrap a unifying culture in teams * Deal with people problems and learn how to mentor other managers and new leaders * Learn how to manage yourself: avoid common pitfalls that challenge many leaders * Obtain several practices that you can incorporate and practice along the way

    What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favorites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such issues for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us.In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.

    The site was named Amazon.com, after the meandering South American river. The initial success of the company was meteoric. With no press promotion, Amazon.com sold books across the United States and in 45 foreign countries within 30 days.We bring you the origins, leaders, growth and products of Amazon.com, an undisputed giant in the e-commerce market.JAICO’S CREATIVE COMPANIES SERIES explores how today’s great companies operate and inspires young readers to become the entrepreneurs and businessmen of tomorrow.

    and industrialists of the lime were not afraid to think ahead and plan big. Among the entrepreneurs who led this Industrial resurgence, four were particularly outstanding, G.D. Birla, Walchand Hirachand, Kasturbhai Lalbhai and, J.R.D. Tata. Gita Piramal, author of the acclaimed Business Maharajas, sensitively recreates the Lives and Times of these four titans of industry. She draws upon hitherto untapped sources of information to Sketch her profiles, making htis perhaps the closest Look at these legends this fair. Thought provoking and incisive. Business Legends is a compelling Account of ambition and achievement.

    But honest and open conversations are not taking place between management and Agile delivery teams.In A Seat at the Table, CIO Mark Schwartz explores the role of IT leadership as it is now and opens the door to reveal IT leadership as it should be - an integral part of the value creation engine. With wit and easy style, Schwartz reveals that the only way to become an Agile IT leader is to be courageous - to throw off the attitude and assumptions that have kept CIOs from taking their rightful seat at the table. CIOs, step on up, your seat at the table is waiting for you.Listening Length: 9 hours and 20 minutes

    In Your Money and Your Brain, Jason Zweig explains why smart people make stupid financial decisions -- and what they can do to avoid these mistakes. Zweig, a veteran financial journalist, draws on the latest research in neuroeconomics, a fascinating new discipline that combines psychology, neuroscience, and economics to better understand financial decision making. He shows why we often misunderstand risk and why we tend to be overconfident about our investment decisions. Your Money and Your Brain offers some radical new insights into investing and shows investors how to take control of the battlefield between reason and emotion. Your Money and Your Brain is as entertaining as it is enlightening. In the course of his research, Zweig visited leading neuroscience laboratories and subjected himself to numerous experiments. He blends anecdotes from these experiences with stories about investing mistakes, including confessions of stupidity from some highly successful people. Then he draws lessons and offers original practical steps that investors can take to make wiser decisions. Anyone who has ever looked back on a financial decision and said, "How could I have been so stupid?" will benefit from reading this book.

    This book is gripping tale for anyone who has been or loves someone who has been recruited into a network marketing business. This well documented book has been utilized by government authorities in both India and the UK to take action against Amway's deceptive business scheme which knowingly has created losses for the majority of all induced to invest.