Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    In Pricing the Future, financial economist George G. Szpiro tells the fascinating stories of the pioneers of mathematical finance who conducted the search for the elusive options pricing formula. From the broker’s assistant who published the first mathematical explanation of financial markets to Albert Einstein and other scientists who looked for a way to explain the movement of atoms and molecules, Pricing the Future retraces the historical and intellectual developments that ultimately led to the widespread use of mathematical models to drive investment strategies on Wall Street.

    Addressing the growing demand to learn how to manage personal investments and finances, the authors have turned the spotlight on individual rather than institutional investors. Their strong real-word focus includes superior coverage of mutual funds, international investments, and investment decision techniques. The new edition makes use of the Internet through exercises and cross references to Internet resources. An accompanying CD-ROM offers hands-on practice in analyzing companies for investment purposes. All these distinctive features ensure that Fundamentals of Investing will continue to define the market for years to come.

    It blends practical and theoretical coverage, while maintaining an appropriate rigor and a clear writing style. Its unifying theme is that security markets are nearly efficient, meaning that most securities are priced appropriately given their risk and return attributes. The text places greater emphasis on asset allocation and offers a much broader and deeper treatment of futures, options, and other derivative security markets than most investment texts. It is also the only graduate Investments text to offer an online homework management system, McGraw-Hill's "Connect Finance."

    Throughout the book the authors show how managers use financial theory to solve practical problems and as a way of learning how to respond to change by showing not just how but why companies and management act as they do. The text is comprehensive, authoritative, and modern and yet the material is presented at a common sense level. The discussions and illustrations are unique due to the depth of detail blended with a distinct sense of humor for which the book is well known and highly regarded. This text is a valued reference for thousands of practicing financial managers.

    Valuation provides up-to-date insights and practical advice on how to create, manage, and measure an organization's value. Along with all-new case studies that illustrate how valuation techniques and principles are applied in real-world situations, this comprehensive guide has been updated to reflect the events of the Internet bubble and its effect on stock markets, new developments in academic finance, changes in accounting rules (both U. S. and IFRS), and an enhanced global perspective. This edition contains the solid framework that managers at all levels, investors, and students have come to trust.

     From Larry Swedroe, author of the bestselling series of "The Only Guide" investment books, and Kevin Grogan, co-author of "The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan," comes "Reducing the Risk of Black Swans." Designed for professional financial advisors and educated investors alike, Swedroe and Grogan wrote this book especially for those looking to expand their technical knowledge of the evidence-based investing world. "Swans" provides an in-depth look at portfolio construction and offers a roadmap for those interested in refining their portfolio. From CAPM to the three-factor model, Swedroe and Grogan present some of the academic underpinnings that have led to what we now commonly recognize to be modern financial theory. Taking it one step further, they provide specifics on what it takes to build a more efficient portfolio. Based on an overwhelming amount of hard data and research, Swedroe and Grogan make their case for reducing the risk of black swans.

    As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    When John Hargrave first invested in cryptocurrency, the price of a single bitcoin was about $125; a few years later, that same bitcoin was worth $20,000. He wasn’t alone: this flood of new money is like the early days of the Internet, creating a new breed of “blockchain billionaires.” Sir John has unlocked their secrets. In Blockchain for Everyone, Sir John reveals the formula for investing in bitcoin and blockchain, using real-life stories, easy-to-understand examples, and a healthy helping of humor. Packed with illustrations, Blockchain for Everyone explains how (and when) to buy bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other blockchain assets, with step-by-step instructions. Blockchain for Everyone is the first blockchain investing book written for the layperson: a guide that helps everyone understand how to build wealth wisely. It’s the new investing manifesto!

    In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.

    This is the secret that lets tiny quantitative edges create hedge fund billionaires, and defines the powerful modern global derivatives economy. The same practical techniques are still used today by risk-takers in finance as well as many other fields. "Red-Blooded Risk" examines this approach and offers valuable advice for the calculated risk-takers who need precise quantitative guidance that will help separate them from the rest of the pack. While most commentators say that the last financial crisis proved it's time to follow risk-minimizing techniques, they're wrong. The only way to succeed at anything is to manage true risk, which includes the chance of loss. "Red-Blooded Risk" presents specific, actionable strategies that will allow you to be a practical risk-taker in even the most dynamic markets.Contains a secret history of Wall Street, the parts all the other books leave outIncludes an intellectually rigorous narrative addressing what it takes to really make it in any risky activity, on or off Wall StreetAddresses essential issues ranging from the way you think about chance to economics, politics, finance, and lifeWritten by Aaron Brown, one of the most calculated and successful risk takers in the world of finance, who was an active participant in the creation of modern risk management and had a front-row seat to the last meltdownWritten in an engaging but rigorous style, with no equationsContains illustrations and graphic narrative by renowned manga artist Eric KimThere are people who disapprove of every risk before the fact, but never stop anyone from doing anything dangerous because they want to take credit for any success. The recent financial crisis has swelled their ranks, but in learning how to break free of these people, you'll discover how taking on the right risk can open the door to the most profitable opportunities.

    These two highly-respected economists and educators have revised this best-selling MICRO FIRST book to include more current topics and events while maintaining its hallmark feature of teaching economics through stories, graphs, and equations; relevant to students with various learning styles (verbal, visual, and numerical).

    of Wisconsin-Madison) and Wichern (Texas A&M U.) present the newest edition of this college text on the statistical methods for describing and analyzing multivariate data, designed for students who have taken two or more statistics courses. The fifth edition includes the addition of seve