From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

    Numerous case studies, followed by the author's analysis of the cases, helps you structure your thinking and apply professional standards to complex cases. Coverage includes ethics, legal research, and the professional literature in major topics in ethics (such as consent, confidentiality, and multiple relationships) and in applied settings (such as community mental health, private practice, schools, and teaching/research).

    It is widely recognised as an invaluable reference for professionals training or working in health, education and social care.Features of this completely revised edition include:Charts describing key stages in the development of motor, perception, communication, play, independence and social skills, updated in the light of recent research and supported by over 120 illustrationsInformation on what we know about how children develop.A new section on the development of attention and self-regulationGuidelines for the assessment of children through observation and interactionAdvice on when to refer to specialist servicesGuidance is offered on ages at which children typically achieve key stages, whilst recognising individual variation in the rate of development and the influence of the child's environment. Based on an ethos of health promotion and the need for a common assessment framework, the book will be welcomed by all those who work with infants and young children.Dr Ajay Sharma is a Consultant Community Paediatrician in Southwark, LondonHelen Cockerill is a Consultant Speech and Language Therapist, working at the Evelina Children's Hospital in London.

    It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable. Professor of Computer Science at the UCLA, Judea Pearl is the winner of the 2008 Benjamin Franklin Award in Computers and Cognitive Science.

    Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists.Currently available in the Series: Emil ArtinGeometnc Algebra R. W. CarterSimple Groups Of Lie Type Richard CourantDifferential and Integrai Calculus. Volume I Richard CourantDifferential and Integral Calculus. Volume II Richard Courant & D. HilbertMethods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. HilbertMethods of Mathematical Physics. Volume II Harold M. S. CoxeterIntroduction to Modern Geometry. Second Edition Charles W. Curtis, Irving ReinerRepresentation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Nelson Dunford, Jacob T. Schwartzunear Operators. Part One. General Theory Nelson Dunford. Jacob T. SchwartzLinear Operators, Part Two. Spectral Theory--Self Adjant Operators in Hilbert Space Nelson Dunford, Jacob T. SchwartzLinear Operators. Part Three. Spectral Operators Peter HenriciApplied and Computational Complex Analysis. Volume I--Power Senes-lntegrauon-Contormal Mapping-Locatvon of Zeros Peter Hilton, Yet-Chiang WuA Course in Modern Algebra Harry HochstadtIntegral Equations Erwin KreyszigIntroductory Functional Analysis with Applications P. M. PrenterSplines and Variational Methods C. L. SiegelTopics in Complex Function Theory. Volume I --Elliptic Functions and Uniformizatton Theory C. L. SiegelTopics in Complex Function Theory. Volume II --Automorphic and Abelian Integrals C. L. SiegelTopics In Complex Function Theory. Volume III --Abelian Functions & Modular Functions of Several Variables J. J. StokerDifferential Geometry

    today. An essential reference for all teachers, educational leaders, and policymakers at all levels, the book is organized and written in a style that is accessible to all, even those with little or no knowledge of the legal issues in education.

    Inspired by insights gained from more than 450 programs conducted with all types of organizations, the authors of SACRED COWS MAKE THE BEST BURGERS show how corporations can kill off the sacred cows that are crippling them.

    In this unconventional introduction, physicist Leonard Susskind and hacker-scientist George Hrabovsky offer a first course in physics and associated math for the ardent amateur. Unlike most popular physics books—which give readers a taste of what physicists know but shy away from equations or math—Susskind and Hrabovsky actually teach the skills you need to do physics, beginning with classical mechanics, yourself. Based on Susskind's enormously popular Stanford University-based (and YouTube-featured) continuing-education course, the authors cover the minimum—the theoretical minimum of the title—that readers need to master to study more advanced topics.An alternative to the conventional go-to-college method, The Theoretical Minimum provides a tool kit for amateur scientists to learn physics at their own pace.

    In order to enable students to apply the basics of data modeling to real models, the book addresses the realities of developing systems in real-world situations by assessing the merits of a variety of possible solutions as well as using language and diagramming methods that represent industry practice.This revised edition has been given significantly expanded coverage and reorganized for greater reader comprehension even as it retains its distinctive hallmarks of readability and usefulness. Beginning with the basics, the book provides a thorough grounding in theory before guiding the reader through the various stages of applied data modeling and database design. Later chapters address advanced subjects, including business rules, data warehousing, enterprise-wide modeling and data management. It includes an entirely new section discussing the development of logical and physical modeling, along with new material describing a powerful technique for model verification. It also provides an excellent resource for additional lectures and exercises.This text is the ideal reference for data modelers, data architects, database designers, DBAs, and systems analysts, as well as undergraduate and graduate-level students looking for a real-world perspective.

    eGrade Plus offers an integrated suite of teaching and learning resources, including an online version of Black's Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, in one easy-to-use Web site. Organized around the essential activities you perform in class, eGrade Plus helps you: Create class presentation using a wealth of Wiley-provided resources. you may easily adapt, customize, and add to his content to meet the needs of your course. Automate the assigning and grading of homework or quizzes by using Wiley-provided question banks, or by writing your won. Student results will be automatically graded and recorded in your gradebook. Track your students' progress. An instructor's gradebook allows you to an analyze individual and overall class results to determine each student's progress and level of understanding. Administer your course. eGrade Plus can easily be integrated with another course management system, gradebook, or other resources you are using in your class. Provide students with problem-solving support. eGrade Plus can link homework problems to the relevant section of the online text, providing context-sensitive help. Best of all, instructors can arrange to have eGrade Plus packaged FREE with new copies of Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, All instructors have to do is adopt the eGrade Plus version of this book and activate their eGrade Plus course.

    Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    It educates prospective clinicians and counselors by guiding them, step-by-step, through the process of working with substance-abuse clients. Chapter content builds in sequence; however, each chapter can be taken as a stand-alone source of valuable information. Individual chapters on special populations add substantial depth to the text's treatment of its subject.

    D. Landau and his distinguished colleague G. B. Rumer, employ a simple and straightforward manner to illuminate relativity theory's more subtle and elusive aspects. Using such familiar objects as trains, rulers, and clocks, the authors explain the reasoning behind seemingly self-contradictory ideas in which the relative seems absolute, but the absolute proves to be relative. A series of playful cartoons highlights the authors' witty observations on the laws governing inertia, the speed of light, the relationship of work and mass, and other relativistic concepts."The exposition is masterful . . . a superb book." — New York Times Book Review.

    Each chapter utilizes case studies and numerous examples. Mathematical and technical sections can be skipped without loss of continuity. Most textbooks do not include models and decision support systems robust enough for industry, but that is not true of this new edition.The accompanying CD-ROM also features the return of two simulations, the Computerized Beer Game and the Risk Pool Game and a computerized tool. These simulations help users develop and execute supply chain contracts while also illustrating many of the concepts discussed in the text.