The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

    Part One focuses on the exponential technologies that are disrupting today’s Fortune 500 companies and enabling upstart entrepreneurs to go from "I’ve got an idea" to "I run a billion-dollar company" far faster than ever before. The authors provide exceptional insight into the power of 3D printing, artificial intelligence, robotics, networks and sensors, and synthetic biology. Part Two of the book focuses on the Psychology of Bold, drawing on insights from billionaire entrepreneurs Larry Page, Elon Musk, Richard Branson, and Jeff Bezos. In addition, Diamandis reveals his entrepreneurial secrets garnered from building fifteen companies, including such audacious ventures as Singularity University, XPRIZE, Planetary Resources, and Human Longevity, Inc. Finally, Bold closes with a look at the best practices that allow anyone to leverage today’s hyper-connected crowd like never before. Here, the authors teach how to design and use incentive competitions, launch million-dollar crowdfunding campaigns to tap into ten’s of billions of dollars of capital, and finally how to build communities—armies of exponentially enabled individuals willing and able to help today’s entrepreneurs make their boldest dreams come true.Bold is both a manifesto and a manual. It is today’s exponential entrepreneur’s go-to resource on the use of emerging technologies, thinking at scale, and the awesome power of crowd-powered tools.

    But sooner or later all of our tomorrows will run out. Each day that you postpone the hard work and succumb to the clutter that chokes creativity, discipline, and innovation will result in a net deficit to the world, to your company, and to yourself. Die Empty is a tool for individuals and companies that aren't willing to put off their best work. Todd Henry explains the forces that keep people in stagnation and introduces a three-part process for tapping into your passion: Excavate: Find the bedrock of your work to discover what drives you. Cultivate: Learn how to develop the curiosity, humility, and persistence that save you from getting stuck in ruts. Resonate: Learn how your unique brilliance can inspire others. Henry shows how to find and sustain your passion and curiosity, even in tough times.

    Douglas Hubbard helps us create a path to know the answer to almost any question in business, in science, or in life . . . Hubbard helps us by showing us that when we seek metrics to solve problems, we are really trying to know something better than we know it now. How to Measure Anything provides just the tools most of us need to measure anything better, to gain that insight, to make progress, and to succeed." -Peter Tippett, PhD, M.D. Chief Technology Officer at CyberTrust and inventor of the first antivirus software "Doug Hubbard has provided an easy-to-read, demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions. We encourage our clients to try his powerful, practical techniques." -Peter Schay EVP and COO of The Advisory Council "As a reader you soon realize that actually everything can be measured while learning how to measure only what matters. This book cuts through conventional cliches and business rhetoric and offers practical steps to using measurements as a tool for better decision making. Hubbard bridges the gaps to make college statistics relevant and valuable for business decisions." -Ray Gilbert EVP Lucent "This book is remarkable in its range of measurement applications and its clarity of style. A must-read for every professional who has ever exclaimed, 'Sure, that concept is important, but can we measure it?'" -Dr. Jack Stenner Cofounder and CEO of MetraMetrics, Inc.

    So do our politicians.We're not listening.And no one is listening to us.Despite living in a world where technology allows constant digital communication and opportunities to connect, it seems no one is really listening or even knows how. And it’s making us lonelier, more isolated, and less tolerant than ever before. A listener by trade, New York Times contributor Kate Murphy wanted to know how we got here.In this always illuminating and often humorous deep dive, Murphy explains why we’re not listening, what it’s doing to us, and how we can reverse the trend. She makes accessible the psychology, neuroscience, and sociology of listening while also introducing us to some of the best listeners out there (including a CIA agent, focus group moderator, bartender, radio producer, and top furniture salesman). It’s time to stop talking and start listening.

    BASED ON SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND PSYCHOLOGICAL STUDIES OF REAL PEOPLE, THESE 100 PRACTICES, ATTITUDES AND HABITS HAVE BEEN PROVEN TO TRANSFORM A UNHAPPY EXISTENCE INTO A FULL AND HAPPY LIFE.Experts have spent their careers investigating what mak

    Since Transitions was first published, this supportive guide has helped hundreds of thousands of readers cope with these issues by providing an elegantly simple yet profoundly insightful roadmap of the transition process. With the understanding born of both personal and professional experience, William Bridges takes readers step by step through the three stages of any transition: The Ending, The Neutral Zone, and, eventually, The New Beginning. Bridges explains how each stage can be understood and embraced, leading to meaningful and productive movement into a hopeful future. With a new introduction highlighting how the advice in the book continues to apply and is perhaps even more relevant today, and a new chapter devoted to change in the workplace, Transitions will remain the essential guide for coping with the one constant in life: change.

    With their first book, Extreme Ownership (published in October 2015), Jocko Willink and Leif Babin set a new standard for leadership, challenging readers to become better leaders, better followers, and better people, in both their professional and personal lives. Now, in THE DICHOTOMY OF LEADERSHIP, Jocko and Leif dive even deeper into the unchartered and complex waters of a concept first introduced in Extreme Ownership: finding balance between the opposing forces that pull every leader in different directions. Here, Willink and Babin get granular into the nuances that every successful leader must navigate. Mastering the Dichotomy of Leadership requires understanding when to lead and when to follow; when to aggressively maneuver and when to pause and let things develop; when to detach and let the team run and when to dive into the details and micromanage. In addition, every leader must:· Take Extreme Ownership of everything that impacts their mission, yet utilize Decentralize Command by giving ownership to their team. · Care deeply about their people and their individual success and livelihoods, yet look out for the good of the overall team and above all accomplish the strategic mission. · Exhibit the most important quality in a leader—humility, but also be willing to speak up and push back against questionable decisions that could hurt the team and the mission.With examples from the authors’ combat and training experiences in the SEAL teams, and then a demonstration of how each lesson applies to the business world, Willink and Babin clearly explain THE DICHOTOMY OF LEADERSHIP—skills that are mission-critical for any leader and any team to achieve their ultimate goal: VICTORY.

    Rooted in the two thousand-year-old wisdom of the Tao Te Ching--"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"--Kaizen is the art of making great and lasting change through small, steady increments. Kaizen is the tortoise versus the hare. Kaizen is the eleven Fortune 500 companies that significantly outperformed the market through moderate, step-by-step actions. Kaizen is losing weight not by a crash diet (which more often than not crashes) but by eating one bite less at each meal--then, a month later, eating two bites less. Kaizen is starting a life-changing exercise program by standing--just standing--on a treadmill for one minute a day. Written by an expert on Kaizen--Dr. Robert Maurer, a psychologist on the staff at the UCLA medical school who speaks and consults nationally--"One Small Step" is the gentle but potent way to effect change. Beginning by outlining the all-important role that fear plays in all types of change--and Kaizen's ability to circumvent it--Dr. Maurer then explains the 7 Small Steps: how to Think Small Thoughts, Take Small Actions, Solve Small Problems, and more. He shows how to perform mind sculpture--visualizing virtual change so that real change comes more naturally. Why small rewards motivate better than big rewards. How great discoveries are made by paying attention to the little details most of us overlook. Hundreds of examples of Kaizen at work grace the book, as well as quotes from W. Edwards Deming (who brought Kaizen to Japanese industry), Peter Drucker, coach John Wooden, and others.

    James Clear, one of the world's leading experts on habit formation, reveals practical strategies that will teach you exactly how to form good habits, break bad ones, and master the tiny behaviors that lead to remarkable results.If you're having trouble changing your habits, the problem isn't you. The problem is your system. Bad habits repeat themselves again and again not because you don't want to change, but because you have the wrong system for change. You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems. Here, you'll get a proven system that can take you to new heights.Clear is known for his ability to distill complex topics into simple behaviors that can be easily applied to daily life and work. Here, he draws on the most proven ideas from biology, psychology, and neuroscience to create an easy-to-understand guide for making good habits inevitable and bad habits impossible. Along the way, readers will be inspired and entertained with true stories from Olympic gold medalists, award-winning artists, business leaders, life-saving physicians, and star comedians who have used the science of small habits to master their craft and vault to the top of their field.Learn how to:*  make time for new habits (even when life gets crazy);*  overcome a lack of motivation and willpower;*  design your environment to make success easier;*  get back on track when you fall off course;...and much more.Atomic Habits will reshape the way you think about progress and success, and give you the tools and strategies you need to transform your habits--whether you are a team looking to win a championship, an organization hoping to redefine an industry, or simply an individual who wishes to quit smoking, lose weight, reduce stress, or achieve any other goal.

    Thankfully there is a better way: The Way of the Productivity Ninja.Using techniques including Ruthlessness, Mindfulness, Zen-like Calm and Stealth & Camouflage you will get your inbox down to zero, make the most of your attention, beat procrastination and learn to work smarter, not harder.Written by one of the UK’s foremost productivity experts, How to be a Productivity Ninja is a fun, accessible and practical guide to staying cool, calm and collected, getting more done, and learning to love your work again.

    Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.

    The ethic of "more, bigger, faster" exacts a series of silent but pernicious costs at work, undermining our energy, focus, creativity, and passion. Nearly 75 percent of employees around the world feel disengaged at work every day. "The Way We're Working Isn't Working "offers a groundbreaking approach to reenergizing our lives so we're both more satisfied and more productive--on the job and off.By integrating multidisciplinary findings from the science of high performance, Tony Schwartz, coauthor of the #1 bestselling "The Power of Full Engagement, "makes a persuasive case that we're neglecting the four core needs that energize great performance: sustainability (physical); security (emotional); self-expression (mental); and significance (spiritual). Rather than running like computers at high speeds for long periods, we're at our best when we pulse rhythmically between expending and regularly renewing energy across each of our four needs.Organizations undermine sustainable high performance by forever seeking to get more out of their people. Instead they should seek systematically to meet their four core needs so they're freed, fueled, and inspired to bring the best of themselves to work every day.Drawing on extensive work with an extra-ordinary range of organizations, among them Google, Ford, Sony, Ernst & Young, Shell, IBM, the Los Angeles Police Department, and the Cleveland Clinic, Schwartz creates a road map for a new way of working. At the individual level, he explains how we can build specific rituals into our daily schedules to balance intense effort with regular renewal; offset emotionally draining experiences with practices that fuel resilience; move between a narrow focus on urgent demands and more strategic, creative thinking; and balance a short-term focus on immediate results with a values-driven commitment to serving the greater good. At the organizational level, he outlines new policies, practices, and cultural messages that Schwartz's client companies have adopted."The Way We're Working Isn't Working "offers individuals, leaders, and organizations a highly practical, proven set of strategies to better manage the relentlessly rising demands we all face in an increasingly complex world.

    They see themselves as questing for truth and meaning. Not only do they seek to know the truth about reality, but to cultivate an abundant and meaningful life. Unfortunately, getting a firm hold on truth and meaning often proves trickier than they anticipate. Complicating matters further is INTPs’ concern for finding and securing their rightful place in the world. This typically involves searching for two things: the right career and the right relationship. Because INTPs envision their optimal career as encapsulating, or at least incorporating, their quest for truth and meaning, it too can prove slippery and elusive. While often taking a back seat to the INTP’s work, relationships can be another point of frustration and difficulty for this type. At times, being such independent souls, INTPs may even consider whether a romantic partner is integral to their quest for happiness. The primary purpose of this book is to help INTPs better understand themselves through the lens of personality typology. This, in turn, can aid and abet their quest for truth, meaning, and purpose. This book also strives to help INTPs develop a clearer sense of direction, as well as increased satisfaction, in their careers and relationships. Chapter 1 contains a general overview, as well as a function-by-function analysis, of the INTP personality type, including a look at the tug-of-war between the INTP’s dominant (Ti) and inferior (Fe) function. Chapter 2 examines INTPs’ typical course of growth and development across the lifespan. Chapter 3 explores the “negative potentials” of the INTP personality type. This includes a careful look at the INTP’s “dark side,” as well as the degree to which INTPs are prone to various psychological problems such as depression, ADD, autism/Asperger’s, narcissism, etc. Chapter 4 tackles one of the INTP’s most poignant and recurrent concerns—their quest for truth and meaning. Chapter 5 examines INTPs’ political, religious, and philosophical propensities. This includes analyses of the relative contributions of each of the INTP’s four functions to the ways in which they see and understand the world. Chapter 6 dives deeply into some of INTPs’ most pressing career concerns. This includes addressing issues such as the degree to which they should focus on the intrinsic versus extrinsic value of their work, the pluses and minuses of working independently, the potential merits of a day job, creative versus analytical careers, etc. This chapter also enumerates the INTP’s most common career strengths and interest areas, drawing on the six “RIASEC” interest themes developed by John Holland. Furthermore, it examines the relative merits of specific careers and majors—the hard sciences, social/moral sciences, computers/IT, freelancing, scholarship, medicine, psychology, etc.—in light of the INTP’s personality, skills, values, and interests. Chapter 7 explores the ways INTPs think and function with respect to relationships, including their unconscious motivations. It also discusses relationships as a forum for learning and experimentation, the danger of concealing negative thoughts and assumptions, INTP communication issues, Ti-Fe identity issues, and INTP attitudes toward family and parenting. Chapter 8 might be viewed as an extension of Chapter 7. It explores, on a type-by-type basis, how INTPs may fare when paired with various personality types. Chapter 9 compares and contrasts INTPs with related personality types—INTJs, ENTPs, ISTPs, and INFPs.

    This witty and informative guide demystifies the ancient Enneagram system with cartoons, exercises, and personality tests that reveal our motivations and desires and show how to put that knowledge to use in our everyday lives.The 9 Types of People:The Perfectionist: Motivated by the need to live life the right way, improve oneself and others, and avoid anger.The Helper: Motivated by the need to be loved and appreciated and to express your positive feelings towards others.The Achiever: Motivated by the need to be productive, to achieve success, and to avoid failure.The Romantic: Motivated by the need to understand your feelings and to be understood to search for the meaning of life, and to avoid being ordinary.The Observer: Motivated by the need to know everything and understand the universe, to be self-sufficient and left alone, and to avoid not having the answer or looking foolish.The Questioner: Motivated by the need for security, to feel taken care of, or to confront your fears.The Adventurer: Motivated by the need to be happy and plan fun things, to contribute to the world, and to avoid suffering and pain.The Asserter: Motivated by the need to be self-reliant and strong, to make an impact on the world, and to avoid being weak.The Peacemaker: Motivated by the need to keep the peace, merge with others, and avoid conflict.