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Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example by Soren Bisgaard
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Think Stats
Allen B. Downey - 2011
This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python.You'll work with a case study throughout the book to help you learn the entire data analysis process—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. Along the way, you'll become familiar with distributions, the rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts.Develop your understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing codeRun experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributionsUse simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematicallyLearn topics not usually covered in an introductory course, such as Bayesian estimationImport data from almost any source using Python, rather than be limited to data that has been cleaned and formatted for statistics toolsUse statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us and How to Know When Not to Trust Them
David H. Freedman - 2010
An eye-opening exploration of why experts are constantly misleading us-and what we can do about it.
Junk to Gold: From Salvage to the World's Largest Online Auto Auction
Willis Johnson - 2014
Willis Johnson, the founder of Copart [CPRT], offers up a personal and inspirational account of this journey to the top including lessons he learned from love, war and building a global, multi-billion dollar business. Even at the pinnacle of success, Willis remained grounded in his family-first values. His stories will inspire and provoke the entrepreneur in everyone to start building their dream.
Introductory Statistics with R
Peter Dalgaard - 2002
It can be freely downloaded and it works on multiple computer platforms. This book provides an elementary introduction to R. In each chapter, brief introductory sections are followed by code examples and comments from the computational and statistical viewpoint. A supplementary R package containing the datasets can be downloaded from the web.
The Big Short: by Michael Lewis
aBookaDay - 2016
If you have not yet bought the original copy, make sure to purchase it before buying this unofficial summary from aBookaDay. SPECIAL OFFER $2.99 (Regularly priced: $3.99) OVERVIEW This review of The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis provides a chapter by chapter detailed summary followed by an analysis and critique of the strengths and weaknesses of the book. The main theme explored in the book is how corruption and greed in Wall Street caused the crash of the subprime mortgage market in 2008. Despite being completely preventable, the big firms in Wall Street chose to ignore the oncoming fall in favor of making money. Michael Lewis introduces characters—men outside of the Wall Street machine—who foresaw the crisis and, through several different techniques, were able to predict how and when the market would fall. Lewis portrays these men—Steve Eisman, Mike Burry, Charlie Ledley, and Jamie Mai—as the underdogs, who were able to understand and act upon the obvious weaknesses in the subprime market. Lewis’s overall point is to demonstrate how the Wall Street firms were manipulating the market. They used loans to cash in on the desperation of middle-to-lower class Americans, and then ultimately relied on the government to bail them out when the loans were defaulted. Using anecdotes and interviews from the men who were involved first-hand, the author makes the case that Wall Street, and how they conducted business in regards to the subprime mortgage market, is truly corrupt beyond repair, and the men he profiles in this novel were trying to make the best out of a bad situation. By having the words from the sources themselves, this demonstrates Lewis’s search for the truth behind what actually happened. Ultimately, we as an audience can not be sure if the intentions of these underdogs were truly good, but Lewis does an admirable job presenting as many sides to the story as possible. The central thesis of the work is that the subprime mortgage crisis was caused by Wall Street firms pushing fraudulent loans upon middle-to-lower class Americans that they would essentially not be able to afford. Several people outside of Wall Street were able to predict a crash in the market when these loans would be defaulted on, and bought insurance to bet against the market (essentially, buying short). Over a time period from roughly 2005-2008, the market crashed and huge banks and firms lost billions of dollars, filed for bankruptcy, or were bailed out by the government. These men, the characters of Lewis’s novel, were able to bet against the loans and made huge amounts of money, but it was not quite an easy journey. Michael Lewis is a non-fiction author and financial journalist. He has written several novels—notably Liar’s Poker in 1989, Moneyball in 2003, and The Blind Side in 2006. Born in New Orleans, he attended Princeton University, receiving a BA degree in Art History. After attending London School of Economics and receiving his masters there, he was hired by Salomon Brothers where he experienced much about what he wrote about in Liar’s Poker. He is currently married, with three children and lives in Berkeley, California. SUMMARY PROLOGUE: POLTERGEIST Michael Lewis begins his tale of the remarkable—and strange—men who predicted the immense fall of the housing market by immediately exposing himself as the exact opposite type of person from them. He explains to the reader that he has no background in accounting, business, or money managing.
Guide to Economic Indicators: Making Sense of Economics
Bloomberg Press - 1998
With more than ninety tables and charts, it looks at all the main economic indicators and answers. Since the spread of globalisation, it has become even more essential in business today to have a thorough understanding of economic information: to be able to grasp fully the real implications of the economic indicators referred to in business reports and by the media. Written for the nonspecialist, this highly accessible guide explains how to understand and interpret all the main economic indicators.Guide to Economic Indicators is above all a practical work that clearly explains the underlying economic realities of today's world. Fully updated and revised, this sixth edition is an invaluable reference for those in business, the financial markets, or government, and a necessary resource for students.
The Intelligent Investor (100 Page Summaries)
Preston Pysh - 2014
Be sure to look inside the book to get a free sample of this quality product!
How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Ben Stein - 2004
This book is a laugh-out-loud way to educate yourself, your children, and your friends about how money really works...and a way to smile while you're straightening out that mess you call your financial life.
The Dividend Mantra Way: Achieving Financial Independence By Living Below Your Means And Investing In Dividend Growth Stocks
Jason Fieber - 2015
From the founder of Dividend Mantra, this is a definitive guide on why you should aim to achieve financial independence early in life and how to actually get there. It includes information on my background, the strategies I've used to grow my wealth from below zero to well into the six figures, and practical, nuts-and-bolts advice. I've written over 650 articles, and this book includes some of my most useful, inspirational, and evergreen content I've ever put out there. If you're looking for information on how to execute a a real-life journey to financial independence in real-time, this is the book for you. I describe why you should aim for financial independence and I explore the idea of true sacrifice. I also discuss the 4% safe withdrawal rate, index funds, the power of dividends and dividend growth, living below your means, and how to analyze and value stocks. I've been featured in major media, including USA Today, CNBC, Today, Yahoo, and Mr. Money Mustache. I'm hoping this book inspires you. Living below your means and investing your excess capital into high-quality companies that pay and grow dividends is not only an incredibly easy and fun way to achieve financial independence early in life, but also incredibly robust.
Statistical Methods for Psychology
David C. Howell - 2001
This book has two underlying themes that are more or less independent of the statistical hypothesis tests that are the main content of the book. The first theme is the importance of looking at the data before formulating a hypothesis. With this in mind, the author discusses, in detail, plotting data, looking for outliers, and checking assumptions (Graphical displays are used extensively). The second theme is the importance of the relationship between the statistical test to be employed and the theoretical questions being posed by the experiment. To emphasize this relationship, the author uses real examples to help the student understand the purpose behind the experiment and the predictions made by the theory. Although this book is designed for students at the intermediate level or above, it does not assume that students have had either a previous course in statistics or a course in math beyond high-school algebra.
How Charts Lie: Getting Smarter about Visual Information
Alberto Cairo - 2019
While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the storm” maps shown on TV every hurricane season.Many of us are ill equipped to interpret the visuals that politicians, journalists, advertisers, and even employers present each day, enabling bad actors to easily manipulate visuals to promote their own agendas. Public conversations are increasingly driven by numbers, and to make sense of them we must be able to decode and use visual information. By examining contemporary examples ranging from election-result infographics to global GDP maps and box-office record charts, How Charts Lie teaches us how to do just that.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip E. Tetlock - 2015
Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
All About Derivatives (All About Series)
Michael Durbin - 2005
Using real-world examples and simple language, it lucidly illustrates what derivatives are and why they are so powerful. This second edition of "All About Derivatives" provides a rock-solid foundation on: The most common contracts available to you in today's marketKey concepts such as cost of carry, settlement, valuation, and payoffProven methods for establishing fair valueHow leverage can work for you--and against youThe various derivative contracts traded today, including forwards, futures, swaps, and optionsPricing methods and mathematics for determining fair valueHedging strategies for managing and reducing different types of riskINCLUDES A BRAND-NEW CHAPTER ON THE ROLEDERIVATIVES PLAYED IN THE 2008 FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
Wheelbarrow Profits: How To Create Passive Income, Build Wealth, And Take Control Of Your Destiny Through Multifamily Real Estate Investing
Jake Stenziano - 2015
The Wheelbarrow Profits system for real estate investment takes advantage of an under appreciated source of wealth in the United States: multifamily properties. Learn how to identify your own niche, study your market, build your portfolio, and manage properties to successfully turn your investment into true wealth. Written and created by Jake Stenziano and Gino Barbaro, Wheelbarrow Profits is the tried and true system that they’ve utilized to grow a single multifamily investment into nearly a dozen successful and lucrative properties. Whether you’re a seasoned professional looking to explore a different type of investment strategy or a new investor looking to start building your portfolio, Jake and Gino’s system will provide you with the step-by-step guide you need to secure your financial independence.