He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    The book explains in easy manner the various investing avenues that you have, the advantages and disadvantages of each. It gives the overall picture of the Indian market.Here are some of the topics that are covered in the book:• Finding and choosing a broker - Online vs traditional broker• How to invest, how much to invest and investment goals• The difference between mutual funds, index funds, and ETFs• How to make your first tradeQuick and easy to read, this will help you start trading and gives you that basic knowlegde that is required before you select a stock to trade

    

    Sway introduces us to the Harvard Business School professor who got his students to pay $204 for a $20 bill, the head of airline safety whose disregard for his years of training led to the transformation of an entire industry, and the football coach who turned conventional strategy on its head to lead his team to victory. We also learn the curse of the NBA draft, discover why interviews are a terrible way to gauge future job performance, and go inside a session with the Supreme Court to see how the world’s most powerful justices avoid the dangers of group dynamics.Every once in a while, a book comes along that not only challenges our views of the world but changes the way we think. In Sway, Ori and Rom Brafman not only uncover rational explanations for a wide variety of irrational behaviors but also point readers toward ways to avoid succumbing to their pull.

    This new breed of billion-dollar businesses proves it's possible to achieve enormous success while implementing sustainable principles that help consumers live better lives. Ranging from start-ups to business lines incubated within major multinationals, these companies collectively represent over $60 billion in revenue. What's more--many command wider profit margins and are growing faster than their conventional counterparts.Packed with eye-opening research, exclusive interviews, and enlightening examples from Chipotle, Toyota, Unilever, Tesla, General Electric, and more, Green Giants serves as a blueprint for sustainable success that anyone can follow.

    With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.

    Kathryn Schulz, editor of Grist magazine, argues that error is the fundamental human condition and should be celebrated as such. Guiding the reader through the history and psychology of error, from Socrates to Alan Greenspan, Being Wrong will change the way you perceive screw-ups, both of the mammoth and daily variety, forever.

    Jacobs decided to thank every single person involved in producing his morning cup of coffee. The resulting journey takes him across the globe, transforms his life, and reveals secrets about how gratitude can make us all happier, more generous, and more connected.Author A.J. Jacobs discovers that his coffee—and every other item in our lives—would not be possible without hundreds of people we usually take for granted: farmers, chemists, artists, presidents, truckers, mechanics, biologists, miners, smugglers, and goatherds. By thanking these people face to face, Jacobs finds some much-needed brightness in his life. Gratitude does not come naturally to Jacobs—his disposition is more Larry David than Tom Hanks—but he sets off on the journey on a dare from his son. And by the end, it’s clear to him that scientific research on gratitude is true. Gratitude’s benefits are legion: It improves compassion, heals your body, and helps battle depression. Jacobs gleans wisdom from vivid characters all over the globe, including the Minnesota miners who extract the iron that makes the steel used in coffee roasters, to the Madison Avenue marketers who captured his wandering attention for a moment, to the farmers in Colombia. Along the way, Jacobs provides wonderful insights and useful tips, from how to focus on the hundreds of things that go right every day instead of the few that go wrong. And how our culture overemphasizes the individual over the team. And how to practice the art of “savoring meditation” and fall asleep at night. Thanks a Thousand is a reminder of the amazing interconnectedness of our world. It shows us how much we take for granted. It teaches us how gratitude can make our lives happier, kinder, and more impactful. And it will inspire us to follow our own “Gratitude Trails.”

    Liberalism is not a political party; it is a system of social organization. The liberal program aims at securing equality under law and freedom of opportunity for everyone to make their own choices and decisions, so long as they do not interfere with the equal rights of others; it offers no special privileges to anyone. Under liberalism, the role of government would be limited to protecting the lives, property, and freedom of its citizens to pursue their own ends and goals. Mises is more specific here than elsewhere in applying the liberal program to economic policy, domestic and foreign. Also in this book, Mises contrasts liberalism with other conceivable systems of social organization such as socialism, communism, and fascism.Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973) was the leading spokesman of the Austrian School of Economics throughout most of the twentieth century. He earned his doctorate in law and economics from the University of Vienna in 1906. In 1926, Mises founded the Austrian Institute for Business Cycle Research. From 1909 to 1934, he was an economist for the Vienna Chamber of Commerce. Before the Anschluss, in 1934 Mises left for Geneva, where he was a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Studies until 1940, when he emigrated to New York City. From 1948 to 1969, he was a visiting professor at New York University.Bettina Bien Greaves is a former resident scholar, trustee, and longtime staff member of the Foundation for Economic Education. She has written and lectured extensively on topics of free market economics. Her articles have appeared in such journals as Human Events, Reason, and The Freeman: Ideas on Liberty. A student of Mises, Greaves has become an expert on his work in particular and that of the Austrian School of economics in general. She has translated several Mises monographs, compiled an annotated bibliography of his work, and edited collections of papers by Mises and other members of the Austrian School.

    This title can help you understand why financial markets exist, how financial institutions serve those markets, and the various services those institutions offer.

    It has crippled the country’s economy for a long time to come. In this book, Arun Kumar, the country’s leading authority on the black economy, tells us why Modi’s gambit failed. He shows us the way in which the problem can be rooted out, provided the government has the political will and determination to act.Today, the black economy is estimated to be 62 per cent of GDP—or about `93 lakh crore ($1.4 trillion). Corrupt businessmen, corrupt politicians, and corrupt members of the executive (bureaucrats, police and the judiciary) are responsible for controlling the black economy and enabling its growth. If the black economy were to be dismantled and turned into a part of the ‘white’ economy, the country’s rate of growth would be 12 per cent. If it had not grown the way it has since the 1970s, India’s per capita income today would be approximately `7 lakh per annum ($11,000) and India would become the second largest economy in the world. If the black economy were taxed at current rates, it would generate `37 lakh crore in additional taxes and the union budget would show a surplus of `31 lakh crore instead of a deficit.The failure of successive governments to tackle the problem effectively has been the single biggest obstacle to eradicating poverty. It is the cause of both widespread policy failure and the inability of the nation to improve its living conditions rapidly.

    Godin shows that winners quit fast, quit often, and quit without guilt--until they commit to beating the right Dip.Every new project (or job, or hobby, or company) starts out fun...then gets really hard, and not much fun at all. You might be in a Dip--a temporary setback that will get better if you keep pushing. But maybe it's really a Cul-de-Sac--a total dead end. What really sets superstars apart is the ability to tell the two apart.Winners seek out the Dip. They realize that the bigger the barrier, the bigger the reward for getting past it. If you can beat the Dip to be the best, you'll earn profits, glory, and long-term security. Whether you're an intern or a CEO, this fun little book will help you figure out if you're in a Dip that's worthy of your time, effort, and talents. The old saying is wrong--winners do quit, and quitters do win.

    You would find yourself closely connected to these stories. They will encourage you to explore your own potential to inspire you, and to achieve your real worth. This book will also help you to understand the traits that keep you from achieving your dreams. The book lays down a process to help you emerge from the clutches of negativity and develop a positive approach towards life.By investing time in yourself, acknowledging your potential, setting a worthy goal, avoiding common traps, surviving bad days and harvesting the power of thoughts, you can be successful.Read this interesting book to Know Your Worth.-------------------------------------------------N.K. Sondhi:N.K. Sondhi’s first book was 'Management of Banking', which draws upon his experiences as a manager in the Punjab National Bank. He then turned to fiction writing, bringing forth the seen and unseen aftermaths of the partition of India in 1947 in his novel 'Cart full of Husk'. He followed it up with a short non-fiction, 'Forgotten City of Delhi (How Delhi became Delhi)'. He wrote his next book, 'A Match Made in Heaven: A 2000-year-old love story', based on the life of an Indian princess, who became first queen of Korea in 48 AD.Working with young people as he pursued social activities after his retirement, he sensed the restlessness among youngsters, who are facing a large number of problems due to stiff neck to neck competition in every field of life. Growing use of advanced technology has further alienated them from the main stream of the society. This has led him to initiate this book 'Know Your Worth' with the young and enterprising writer Ms. Vibha Malhotra.-------------------------------------------------Vibha Malhotra:Vibha Malhotra is the founder of 'Literature Studio' and editor-in-chief of the literary e-journal 'Literature Studio Review'. In the past, she has worked as an editor with Dorling Kindersley (Penguin Random House) where she has edited beautiful coffee table books on subjects such as history, nature, fitness, lifestyle, and travel.She is also a poet and a translator. Her work has been published in literary journals across the world such as Wasafiri, Muse India, Tipton Poetry Journal, The Luxembourg Review, Red Fez, and in dailies such as The Times of India and Ceylon Today. 'Know Your Worth' is her first work as an author.Vibha holds a Master of Arts in Creative Writing from Newcastle University, UK. She teaches creative writing to all age groups. By Profession, Vibha is a Lead Software Engineer at Adobe Systems.-------------------------------------------------CONTENTS1. Acknowledge Your Superpowers2. Invest in Yourself3. Take Charge4. Set a Worthy Goal5. Identify Your Worst Enemy6. Turn Your Fear into an Opportunity7. Avoid the Common Traps8. Harvest the Power of Thoughts9. Watch Your Attitude10. Keep Your Communication Clear11. Be Mindful12. Surviving Bad Days13. Nurture Your Ecosystem14. Stay SuccessfulINVEST IN YOURSELF Now that you know that you have superpowers that are there within you and can be harvested whenever you need them, it is important to take time to really explore all your strengths and weaknesses. Only then can you be fully prepared to achieve your goals. But we are mostly clueless that understanding ourselves doesn’t have to be a slow, tedious process, it can always be sped up.All of us are born with inherent likes and dislikes. Even a fetus in the womb has its own taste preferences, resulting in the seemingly irrational food cravings that expecting mothers experience. These preferences, likes, and dislikes are clues to the things you will be good at. If a child enjoys painting more than singing, chances are that the child will be better at painting than he/she is at singing. You can think of these as clues that nature chose to expose to us so that we can carve a satisfying path for ourselves.Most of us, even as adults, have whims, and mostly we choose to ignore them. Even as children, we are rarely able to indulge in every whim. There are always limitations – in terms of time, finances, facilities etc. – to keep us from fully exploring what we are capable of. But these are not the only factors that stop us. The biggest factor, in fact, is our own inhibitions, especially once we are grown-ups. We are afraid of new experiences, afraid of disappointment, afraid of failure, afraid of making fools of ourselves. And this fear keeps us from taking advantage of opportunities to gather new experiences. Let us try to understand this with the example of a young girl called Shikha. Shikha and the Ideation CompetitionShikha was an editor at a publishing house. She was very good at her job and apart from being an excellent editor, she also often proposed new book ideas to the publishing house.The publishing house announced a competition in which teams would work together and come up with new book ideas that they would then present to a jury comprising of senior publishers from all over the world. The selected idea would then be converted into a book that would be sold all over the world.Shikha had never ever participated in a competition, let alone won it. She wasn’t at all confident of her abilities to work in a team. And the fact that the competition was about new book ideas was making her restless. By proposing new book ideas in the past, she had earned a reputation in that area. Her colleagues and even her boss thought of her as a creative thinker. Shikha was worried that if she participated in this competition and lost it, her reputation as a creative thinker would be tarnished too. Can you guess why she was so full of doubts? It was because she had always attributed her past achievements to good luck, and had never given herself any credit for the book ideas she had come up with. Thus, she was afraid of being exposed as someone who really did not possess any great talent.She was still in this state of dilemma when she discovered that her manager had already nominated Shikha’s name for the competition. Now she had no choice, so she decided to go with the flow. With each passing day, her desperation to win the contest increased, and by the time the date of the competition arrived, she found herself unable to sleep. She knew that she would do anything to win this competition. For the first time in her life she was this passionate about something. She wanted to give it her all.On the day of the competition, she was put in a team and the team started with discussing the various ideas that all members had. Shikha had a great idea, but when she saw more merit in the idea proposed by another team member, she voted for it to be taken up for further preparation and the final presentation. She was almost feverish with excitement. And when her team members were of the opinion that they should give their best and not really care if they win or lose, Shikha was single-minded about her goal of winning the competition. Her focus proved to be contagious and soon all her team-members too were bubbling with enthusiasm. Guided by their single goal, the group of strangers really became a team and the initial idea evolved to become something they all believed in. Though the team leader was someone else, everyone could see that Shikha was the driving force for the team. When it was time to present their idea, the team leader proposed that Shikha should do it. And the presentation left the judges mesmerized. When their team emerged the winner, no one was surprised. Their idea and their presentation of it were deemed to be the best.Once she was out of the competition frenzy, Shikha herself was surprised. She couldn’t understand what had come over her during the competition. But she was glad to discover this other Shikha. She had gone into the competition based on her creative thinking, but her team had emerged a winner because of her team spirit and leadership skills. Shikha was surprised to discover these two new skills in herself. She had never thought herself capable of what she had achieved. Most of us are like Shikha – capable, but afraid of failure and public ridicule. And this is why we do not take chances in life. We like to play safe. But one can never really truly understand oneself by remaining in a shell. Unless you experience new things, you can never experience a new you. Unless you take risks, you can never transcend your normal, day-to-day existence.But, what gives us the capacity to take risks? Our confidence on our strengths and abilities. And from where do we get this confidence? Unfortunately, it isn’t a commodity and you cannot buy it from a shop. Money can’t buy you confidence. You need to work hard to develop it. You need to test yourself, which is again done by putting yourself in situations that you feel are beyond your reach. So, this is once again a chicken-and-egg situation. But after you have been through some such cycles and are confident of the situations you can handle, you are in a better position to fix your goals.However, it is easier said than done. Unfortunately, life is not a fairy tale and this means that we will not succeed every time we take up a challenge. There will also be times when we fail. This is inevitable. We will invariably have to face problems, and this may shake our confidence. Dealing with failures is not easy. It is like a double-edged sword. If you take failures too seriously, they may end up crushing you. On the other hand, if you take them too lightly, you will not learn any lessons from them, which means that the risk that you took would go to waste. So, you need to recognize failures for what they are – failures. Nothing more, nothing less. If you fail in a challenge, it does not mean that you yourself are a failure. This is the most common mistake we commit. Failing a challenge means that you failed that challenge. You need to analyze the situation, see what you could have done better, and move on to the next challenge where you can test your learnings.This act of never giving up, will give you confidence and this confidence helps us realize our capabilities. And this, in turn, shows in our personality. We hold our head high. We walk with determination. We talk with conviction, and we are normally in a good mood. Confidence also gives us perseverance – the ability to keep going after a failure. If you haven’t invested in yourself, you are more likely to give up after a failure or two.Confidence helps us stay on our path and not go astray. Many hurdles and problems may block our way and discourage us, but if we have confidence, we will not let these hurdles stop us. Instead we will search for an alternate path to our goal. The Little Bird and the BranchOnce a little bird landed on a branch high up a tall tree. The jungle below was full of dangerous predators but at this height, they posed no danger to the little bird. Feeling safe and protected, the little bird rested, enjoying the beautiful view around, and feeling completely at peace. Just as the bird became used to the branch, a strong wind started blowing, shaking the entire tree. The tree swayed with such intensity that it appeared the branch would break and fall down.To other animals, this could be a matter of great worry, but the little bird was not worried. Do you know why? Because the little bird knew its own powers and strengths. Even if the branch was to fall down, the bird knew that it had wings and the ability to fly. And the bird was also aware that if this branch was to fall, there are many other branches that could be used instead. Therefore, the bird, though tiny in size, sat on the branch, braving the high wind. The animals below, all of them much stronger than the bird, were filled with much admiration for this courageous little creature who was braving difficult circumstances. The story of this small bird tells us a lot about our own self-confidence and courage. If one road is blocked there are others we can follow. And if there are no new roads, there’s always the earth on which we can make a new road.

    For the first time in human history, he observes, “more” is no longer synonymous with “better”—indeed, for many of us, they have become almost opposites. McKibben puts forward a new way to think about the things we buy, the food we eat, the energy we use, and the money that pays for it all. Our purchases, he says, need not be at odds with the things we truly value.McKibben’s animating idea is that we need to move beyond “growth” as the paramount economic ideal and pursue prosperity in a more local direction, with cities, suburbs, and regions producing more of their own food, generating more of their own energy, and even creating more of their own culture and entertainment. He shows this concept blossoming around the world with striking results, from the burgeoning economies of India and China to the more mature societies of Europe and New England. For those who worry about environmental threats, he offers a route out of the worst of those problems; for those who wonder if there isn’t something more to life than buying, he provides the insight to think about one’s life as an individual and as a member of a larger community.McKibben offers a realistic, if challenging, scenario for a hopeful future. As he so eloquently shows, the more we nurture the essential humanity of our economy, the more we will recapture our own.

    Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401K, everyday decisions have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains why too much of a good thing has proven detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz explains how a culture that thrives on the availability of constantly evolving options can also foster profound dissatisfaction and self-blame in individuals, which can lead to a paralysis in decision making and, in some cases, depression. With the latest studies on how we make choices in our personal and professional lives, Schwartz offers practical advice on how to focus on the right choices, and how to derive greater satisfaction from choices that we do make.