Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Since the dot.com crash and ensuing bear market, significant changes have come about in the investing world, and The Neatest Little Guide takes this into account. In this revised edition, readers will learn: € Strategies on how to double the Dow with one simple investment and the latest products required for this approach € Methods investors can use to avoid disasters such as Enron and WorldCom € Thoroughly updated reference lists, including new websites, new software, new brokers, and new publications With the right information for investors to keep pace, and rooted in the principles that made it invaluable from the start, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing is a resource that no serious investor can be without.

      Buy as many lattes as you want. Choose the right accounts and investments so your money grows for you—automatically. Best of all, spend guilt-free on the things you love.   Personal finance expert Ramit Sethi has been called a “wealth wizard” by Forbes and the “new guru on the block” by Fortune. Now he’s updated and expanded his modern money classic for a new age, delivering a simple, powerful, no-BS 6-week program that just works.  I Will Teach You to Be Rich will show you: • How to crush your debt and student loans faster than you thought possible • How to set up no-fee, high-interest bank accounts that won’t gouge you for every penny • How Ramit automates his finances so his money goes exactly where he wants it to—and how you can do it too • How to talk your way out of late fees (with word-for-word scripts) • How to save hundreds or even thousands per month (and still buy what you love) • A set-it-and-forget-it investment strategy that’s dead simple and beats financial advisors at their own game • How to handle buying a car or a house, paying for a wedding, having kids, and other big expenses—stress free • The exact words to use to negotiate a big raise at work  Plus, this 10th anniversary edition features over 80 new pages, including: • New tools • New insights on money and psychology • Amazing stories of how previous readers used the book to create their rich lives   Master your money—and then get on with your life.

    Each of them has accumulated £1m or more - in most cases considerably more - mainly from stock market investment. Six are 'ISA millionaires' who have £1m or more in a tax-free ISA, a result which is arithmetically impossible without exceptional investment returns.Some have several academic degrees or strong City backgrounds; others left school with few qualifications and are entirely self-taught as investors. Some invest most of their money in very few shares and hold them for years at a time; others make dozens of trades every day, and hold them for at most a few hours. Some are inveterate networkers, who spend their day talking to managers at companies in which they invest; for others a share is just a symbol on a screen, and a price chart shows most of what they need to know to make their trading decisions.Free capital - money surplus to immediate living expenses - is the raw material with which these investors work. It can also be thought of as their psychological habitat, free from the petty tribulations of office politics. Lastly, free capital describes the footloose nature of their assets, which can be quickly redirected towards any type of investment anywhere in the world, without the constraints which institutional investors often face.Although it presents many advanced insights and valuable investment hints, this is not an overly technical book. It offers practical ideas and inspiration, with revealing detail and minimal jargon, making it an indispensable read for novice and experienced investors alike.

    The very things done to make markets safer, have, in fact, created a world that is far more dangerous. From the 1987 crash to Citigroup closing the Salomon Arb unit, from staggering losses at UBS to the demise of Long-Term Capital Management, Bookstaber gives readers a front row seat to the management decisions made by some of the most powerful financial figures in the world that led to catastrophe, and describes the impact of his own activities on markets and market crashes. Much of the innovation of the last 30 years has wreaked havoc on the markets and cost trillions of dollars. A Demon of Our Own Design tells the story of man's attempt to manage market risk and what it has wrought. In the process of showing what we have done, Bookstaber shines a light on what the future holds for a world where capital and power have moved from Wall Street institutions to elite and highly leveraged hedge funds.

    Hayek is one of only a few social scientists over the past 200 years who thoroughly rethought the relationship between individual people and both the market and the state. While countless works have discussed the importance of Hayek and his ideas, none have focused on making his core ideas accessible to average people. This volume highlights and explains Hayek's basic insights in plain language to ensure that his critical ideas about the nature of society are both accessible and enduring.

    The mainstream financial gurus have sold you blindly down the river. For those who don't want a lifetime subscription to "settle for less," and a slight chance of elderly riches, there is an expressway to extraordinary wealth that can burn a trail to financial independence faster than any road out there. Demand the Fastlane, an alternative road to wealth that actually ignites dreams and creates millionaires young, not old. Hit the Fastlane, crack the code to wealth, and find out how to live rich for a lifetime.

    It is state of the art in economic theory and political philosophy. The intelligent, open-minded reader who seeks to understand the economics and politics of the modern world (along with much of its closely related history and social and cultural phenomena), and what is required to improve mankind's lot in these two vital areas, need look no further than to this book.

    Written by an investor with a long and remarkable track record, it shares for the first time the ins and outs of finding high-potential undervalued stocks before anyone else.Deep value investing means finding companies that are genuine bargains that can pay back phenomenally over the long term. They are firms so cheap that even if they were to close tomorrow their assets would pay you out at a profit. But if they can turn things around, the rewards will be many times greater ...These were the favourite shares of Benjamin Graham, author of 'The Intelligent Investor'. Inspired by Graham's classic and with a long history of discovering these great value stocks - sometimes known as 'bargain issues' or 'netnets' - author and investor Jeroen Bos reveals:- how to use only publicly available information to discover these shares and filter the gold from the dross- everything he did when analysing, purchasing, monitoring and selling more than ten recent successful deep value investments- the complete philosophy behind deep value investing, and the ins and outs of this strategy in practice- what can go wrong and how to minimise the chances of it happening to you.Deep value investing has a better track record than almost any other approach to the market. Even better, it doesn't require minute and technical knowledge of a company, nor is it fixated on earnings or often-unreliable future projections.It's all about the balance sheet and patience. This makes it the perfect investing approach for those who want to see phenomenal stock market returns without wasting time or commission costs.

    It counters conventional wisdom with an eighty-year revisionist history of how the American state—especially the Federal Reserve—has fallen prey to the politics of crony capitalism and the ideologies of fiscal stimulus, monetary central planning, and financial bailouts. These forces have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America's private enterprise foundation to morph into a speculative casino that swindles the masses and enriches the few.Defying right- and left-wing boxes, David Stockman provides a catalogue of corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. The former includes Franklin Roosevelt, who fathered crony capitalism; Richard Nixon, who destroyed national financial discipline and the Bretton Woods gold-backed dollar; Fed chairmen Greenspan and Bernanke, who fostered our present scourge of bubble finance and addiction to debt and speculation; George W. Bush, who repudiated fiscal rectitude and ballooned the warfare state via senseless wars; and Barack Obama, who revived failed Keynesian “borrow and spend” policies that have driven the national debt to perilous heights. By contrast, the book also traces a parade of statesmen who championed balanced budgets and financial market discipline including Carter Glass, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Simon, Paul Volcker, Bill Clinton, and Sheila Bair.Stockman's analysis skewers Keynesian spenders and GOP tax-cutters alike, showing how they converged to bloat the welfare state, perpetuate the military-industrial complex, and deplete the revenue base—even as the Fed's massive money printing allowed politicians to enjoy “deficits without tears.” But these policies have also fueled new financial bubbles and favored Wall Street with cheap money and rigged stock and bond markets, while crushing Main Street savers and punishing family budgets with soaring food and energy costs. The Great Deformation explains how we got here and why these warped, crony capitalist policies are an epochal threat to free market prosperity and American political democracy.

    In The Soul of Capitalism, Greider examines how the greatest wealth-creation engine in the history of the world is failing most of us, why it must be changed, and how specifically it can be transformed. Brilliantly perceptive and sweeping in its ambition, The Soul of Capitalism is also hard-headed and practical, as Greider, one of our most eloquent populist spokesmen, assures us we are not powerless. He illustrates how American capitalism can be aligned more faithfully and obediently with what people want and need in their lives, with what American society needs for a healthy, balanced, and humane future. He proves that it is within our power to reinvent capitalism to make it work for us. The Soul of Capitalism -- solid, pragmatic, visionary, optimistic -- addresses the nation's most urgent needs.

    No Hyperbole. No Magic Bullet. The Compound Effect is based on the principle that decisions shape your destiny. Little, everyday decisions will either take you to the life you desire or to disaster by default. Darren Hardy, publisher of Success Magazine, presents The Compound Effect, a distillation of the fundamental principles that have guided the most phenomenal achievements in business, relationships, and beyond. This easy-to-use, step-by-step operating system allows you to multiply your success, chart your progress, and achieve any desire. If you’re serious about living an extraordinary life, use the power of The Compound Effect to create the success you want.

    With substantial new material, this second edition features Tharp's new 17-step trading model. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom also addresses reward to risk multiples, as well as insightful new interviews with top traders, and features updated examples and charts.

    after taxes! What are his investing secrets? How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett contains the answers and shows, step-by-profitable-step, how any investor can follow Buffett's path to consistently find bargains in all markets: up, down, or sideways.How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett sticks to the basics: how Buffett continually finds bargain stocks passed over by others. Written by an actual financial analyst who uses Buffett's strategies professionally, this tactical how-to book includes:Comprehensive financial tools and informationStrategy-packed Buffett in action boxesBuffett's own stock portfolio­­continually updated on the author's website!

    Taylor discusses all the fundamental aspects of Austrian thought, from subjectivism and marginal utility to inflation and the business cycle. This new and revised edition is widely influential among economics students.For the newcomer, this work represents a concise introduction to both the historical setting of the Austrian School and to the ideas espoused by its members.This volume includes chapters on:Social Cooperation and Resource Allocation Economic Calculation The Subjective Theory of Value The Market and Market Prices Production in an Evenly Rotating Economy From an Evenly Rotating Economy to the Real World Inflation and the Business Trade Cycle96 pp. (pb)