Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

     Understand the dynamics of price action trading and give yourself a significant trading advantage. Benefit from years of trading experience. Give yourself an advantage by learning from someone who has experience on a prop desk. Atanas will teach you what you need to know about different types of price action and and how to trade it. Not sure where to start? Are you unsure about what it means to trade price action? Or maybe you don't understand how technical indicators work. This book will give your trading clarity. Understand different types of candlesticks and price action patterns so you can reduce your risk and be consistently profitable.. Easy to understand explanations of complex topics, this book will demystify price action trading once and for all. From Steve Burns of NewTraderU.com: "Atanas writes about the topics that most traders are interested in, price action and the tools to trade it systematically. His insight on technical indicators, how to identify and trade a trend, and how to visually see chart patterns have been read by tens of thousands of readers. The work and effort Atanas puts into writing and custom illustration is a testament to his passion for trading." About the Author: Atanas Matov a.k.a. Colibri Trader (@priceinaction on Twitter) started his trading career as a retail trader in the early 2000’s. After a few years of trading and investing his own funds, he won the KBC stock market challenge and shortly afterwards started working for a leading prop trading house in London. Currently he is trading his own account and trying to help other traders through his trading blog and social media. Major part of Atanas’s philosophy is in giving back and helping others achieve their trading goals. In his own words: “Judge your trading success by the things you have given up in order to get where you are now!" Follow Atanas on Twitter @priceinaction www.colibritrader.com

    On Target is the first in-depth look at the business leaders and strategies that made Target such a runaway success. The company's easily recognizable red-and-white logo, youthful television advertisements, and upscale partnerships-with designers like Michael Graves, Mossimo, and Todd Oldham-have not only removed the stigma traditionally attached to discount store shopping, but actually made it hip to be frugal. In the process, the company has cemented its place as the favorite discount retailer of middle- and upper-income families across the country. In On Target, award-winning business journalist Laura Rowley examines the methods and the success of the company from its shrewd merchandising strategy to its clever marketing campaigns, ingenious branding effort, and extensive philanthropy . An excellent education in how to beat the competition even in a crowded and weak retail market, Target's story details the history and incredible success of a unique company and an enticing, unmistakable brand. Both insightful and entertaining, On Target offers important business lessons for executives and managers in need of a bull's-eye.Laura Rowley (Maplewood, NJ) is an award-winning television, radio, and print journalist specializing in business reporting. She is the personal finance and career columnist for Self magazine and has also been published in The New York Times, Parents, and Newsweek. As a reporter and producer for CNN in New York, she reported on air for Your Money and Business Unusual, and produced live programs for CNNfn. She has also appeared on Good Morning America, Oxygen Media, and CNBC.

    He explains how bankers worldwide created a secret trillion-dollar machine that delivered cheap mortgages to the masses and riches beyond dreams to the financial innovators.Fundamental to this saga is how “the people who hated to lose” were persuaded to accept risk by “the people who loved to win.” Why did people come to trust and respect arcane financial tools? Who were the bankers competing to assemble the basic components into increasingly intricate machines? How did this process achieve its own unstoppable momentum—ending in collapse, bailouts, and a public outcry against the giants of finance?Provocative and intriguing, The Devil’s Derivatives sheds much-needed light on the forces that fueled the most brutal economic downturn since the Great Depression.

    Get a new and powerful understanding of the world around you. Save yourself from the nonsense spouted by politicians, TV pundits, right-wingers, left-wingers, shamans, uncles, and best friends.

    Economics, Third Edition: Making Sense of the Modern Economy takes complex concepts and makes them easy to understand, presenting the concepts in the context of today's economic environment.Details the sources of economic growth, and the role of central banks Explains both macro and microeconomics Analyzes why the recession of 2008 happened and how it was dealt with, as well as its short- and long-term effects Free of jargon and with few charts or tables to sort through and pore over, Economics, Third Edition helps everyone from students to statesmen quickly and easily grasp how the economy really works in the real world, and how it affects our daily lives.

    He explains why the United States is now the "borrower and spender of last resort," makes the case that this is an untenable arrangement, and argues that global economic security depends on the ability of emerging economies to develop robust financial systems based on domestic currencies.Sharply and clearly argued, Wolf’s prescription for fixing global finance illustrates why he has been described as "the world's preeminent financial journalist."

    Moving between New Yorks Wall Street and the beauty of Corsica, Berberians novel is a literary rendering of Marxs Capital for the 21st century: where a fund trader makes his profits through the collapse of overseas markets--and ensures it with the aid of a hired assassin.

    Breaking everything down into simple and achievable steps, he makes this daunting process easy. Learn how to:- Find your perfect pad- Choose which mortgage is right for you- Negotiate with estate agents and sellers- Organise exchange and completion Including indispensable advice, money-saving tips and an essential trouble-shooting section, this guide covers everything a first-time buyer needs to know. And when it's time to move on again, this book will show you how to sell your home too.Phil Spencer is one the best-known faces on British television, co-presenting the hit Channel 4 series Location, Location, Location and Relocation, Relocation. Phil has written regularly columns in The Sunday Times and Country Life, and is contracted to Archant publishing to write columns that are syndicated in the group's numerous local glossy magazines which are distributed nationwide. Recent TV appearances include on The One Show, Children in Need and The Friday Night Project, and Phil also regularly appears on the radio to discuss property issues.

    Drawing on his experiences at the heart of the campaign, Daniel Hannan dissects the result and our reaction. He outlines why Vote Leave won, exploring what people were voting for and what they weren’t. He looks at the immediate aftermath—how it differs from what people expected and what it says about where to go next. Brexit, Hannan points out, is a process—not an event—with three key areas of consideration: the UK's relationship with the remaining 27 EU states; their relationship with the rest of the world; and, crucially, their consequent domestic reforms—there is no point to Brexit if they don’t now tackle the threats to democracy of corporatism and lobbying. What Next is Hannan’s blueprint for a successful Brexit. A Brexit that addresses the concerns of the 48% who voted Remain as well as of the 52% who voted Leave, a Brexit that revitalizes British democracy, and a Brexit that will be mutually beneficial for both Britain and Europe.

    Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century makes a powerful case that wealth, and accumulated wealth, tends to stay where it lands: and with the passage of time, just gets bigger…and bigger.But how many of us who bought or borrowed the book–or even, perhaps, reviewed it–have read more than a fraction of its 696 pages? How many more shuddered at the thought of committing $40 to such a venture? And how many of Piketty’s groundshaking concepts have gone unappreciated, all for want of intellectual stamina?Deliverance is at hand in the form of Pocket Piketty, written in clear and accessible prose by an experienced economist and teacher–and one whose work was relied on by Piketty for his masterpiece. In this handy and slim volume, Jesper Roine explains all things Piketty.

    

    He shares his investing philosophy and offers advice on all aspects of financial planning, including engaging an adviser; building a property portfolio; investing in shares, bonds or managed funds; growing your superannuation; and ethical investment.It’s Your Money is an indispensable guide for anyone who wants to do more with their money. Alan shows how, with a few careful steps and some practical wisdom, anyone can invest sensibly and successfully. He gives you the tools to be confidently in charge of your money and your future, your way.It’s Your Money is an indispensable guide for anyone who wants to do more with their money

    Find all of the following, explained in plain-English: How your Social Security retirement benefits, spousal benefits, and widow/widower benefits are calculated How your benefits are affected if you have a government pension or if you continue working while claiming Social Security How to decide when is the best age for you (and your spouse, if you're married) to claim Social Security in order to get the most out of your benefits Whether or not it makes sense to take Social Security early in order to invest the money How to check your earnings record on the Social Security Administration's website to make sure you're getting the full benefit you deserve How Social Security benefits are taxed and how this affects retirement tax planning Please note that this book does not cover Social Security disability benefits or Supplemental Security Income (SSI).

    Learn how to use CDs, bonds, and bond funds to manage risk/reward even during low interest rates. You will learn:How to choose your stocks/bonds allocationHow to become immune to changing interest ratesWhen to use CDs and individual bondsHow to choose a good bond fundHow to hedge against unexpected inflationContents:Foreword by Larry SwedroeIntroduction- Who Should Read This Book?- Start with a Sound Financial LifestyleWhy Bother With Bonds?- Stocks are risky in the short-run, and the long run too!- Bonds Make Risk More Palatable- Bonds Can Be A Safe Bet- Bonds Are An Attractive Investment DiversifierLife Is Complicated. Bonds Are Not.- What is a Money Market Fund?- Are CDs Better Than Bonds?- What Are Bonds?- What is a Bond Ladder?- Individual Bonds or a Bond Fund?Bonds: Risks and Returns- Yield, Price And Making Comparisons— How To Compare Individual Bond Returns— How to Compare Bond Fund Returns— Total Return: To Measure And Compare Performance- How To Reduce Risk From Interest Rates Changes— Duration: The Point of Indifference to Interest Rates— Duration: The Measure of Sensitivity to Interest Rates- How To Reduce Risk From Unexpected Inflation— Real versus Nominal Interest Rates— Why Include TIPS In Your Portfolio?- Credit Quality or Default RiskBuild The Bond Portion Of Your Portfolio- Start With Your Goals.- How Much Risk Is Right For You?— Understand How Much Risk You’re Taking— Take Your Risk In Stock Market, Not Bond Market— How Much in Bonds? How Much in Stocks?— Your Needs Change Over Time- The Importance of Low Cost— How Much To Diversify Bonds?— The Importance of Low Cost— Five Low-Cost Strategies You Can Do Yourself- Taxes Matter- Example Portfolios (both good and bad)Common Misconceptions Important to Correct- Stocks Are Safer In The Long Run- Holding a Bond (or CD) to Maturity Eliminates Risk- Stocks Are Safer Than Bonds- The Best Funds Have The Most Stars- A One Percent Fee Is Small- Rising Interest Rates are Bad for Bond Holders- You Can’t Beat the Market Using Index Funds- Use Multiple Investment Companies To Diversify- You Need Many Mutual Funds to Diversify- Frugal Means StingyReviews Worth Noting:“[As] stocks have surged and bond yields have dwindled, investors increasingly ask "Why bother with bonds?" Rick Van Ness takes this question and runs with it in his book sporting this provocative title. Sooner or later, this question will answer itself, and it will behoove all investors to get to know Rick before it does. Read it, enjoy it, and profit from it—before it's too late.”William J. BernsteinAuthor, The Four Pillars of Investing“In his simply stated and entertaining book, Rick Van Ness eloquently instructs the reader on how to do bonds right – in fact, better than any single book I’ve read.”Allan S. RothAuthor: How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street“If you are a DIY investor . . . you should read this book. It will steer you clear of areas you need to avoid and into where you should be. A quick read filled with valuable info!”Robert Wasilewski“This book should be part of America’s high school curriculum.”Andrew HallamAuthor: Millionaire Teacher