Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    From randomized clinical trials in medical research, to statistical models of risk in banking and hedge fund industries, to the statistical tools used to probe vast astronomical databases, the field of statistics has become centrally important to how we understand our world. But the discipline underlying all these is not the dull statistics of the popular imagination. Long gone are the days of manual arithmetic manipulation. Nowadays statistics is a dynamic discipline, revolutionized by the computer, which uses advanced software tools to probe numerical data, seeking structures, patterns, and relationships. This Very Short Introduction sets the study of statistics in context, describing its history and giving examples of its impact, summarizes methods of gathering and evaluating data, and explains the role played by the science of chance, of probability, in statistical methods. The book also explores deep philosophical issues of induction--how we use statistics to discern the true nature of reality from the limited observations we necessarily must make.About the Series: Combining authority with wit, accessibility, and style, Very Short Introductions offer an introduction to some of life's most interesting topics. Written by experts for the newcomer, they demonstrate the finest contemporary thinking about the central problems and issues in hundreds of key topics, from philosophy to Freud, quantum theory to Islam.

    Out of it you have to spin health, pleasure, money, content, respect, and the evolution of your immortal soul. This timeless classic is one of the first self-help books ever written and was a best-seller in both England and America. It remains as useful today as when it was written, and offers fresh and practical advice on how to make the most of the daily miracle of life.

    You know tilt costs you money, but do you know how to make it go away? You know position is important, but do you really know how to profit from that knowledge? Elements of Poker is the distilled wisdom of a master. Published in 2007, this book is praised by poker pros worldwide as a timeless classic.

    Their methods vary fromtechnical trading and global macro-economic analysis to deep valueinvesting. The glue that holds them together is their passion forinvesting and their ability to efficiently harness the Internet forcritical investment ideas, research, and trading skills.The author digs deep to find the best of the best, even findingthose who are making money during these turbulent timesContains case studies that will explain to you how these greatindividual investors find and profit from stocks and options.Shows you how to rely on your own instincts and knowledge whenmaking important investment decisionsIn an era when the best professional advice has cracked manyinvestor nest eggs and Madoff-style frauds have shattered investortrusts, the self-empowered investors found in The WarrenBuffetts Next Door offer an inspiring and educationaltale.

    Short-Cut Math is a concise, remarkably clear compendium of about 150 math short-cuts — timesaving tricks that provide faster, easier ways to add, subtract, multiply, and divide.By using the simple foolproof methods in this volume, you can double or triple your calculation speed — even if you always hated math in school. Here's a sampling of the amazingly effective techniques you will learn in minutes: Adding by 10 Groups; No-Carry Addition; Subtraction Without Borrowing; Multiplying by Aliquot Parts; Test for Divisibility by Odd and Even Numbers; Simplifying Dividends and Divisors; Fastest Way to Add or Subtract Any Pair of Fractions; Multiplying and Dividing with Mixed Numbers, and more.The short-cuts in this book require no special math ability. If you can do ordinary arithmetic, you will have no trouble with these methods. There are no complicated formulas or unfamiliar jargon — no long drills or exercises. For each problem, the author provides an explanation of the method and a step-by-step solution. Then the short-cut is applied, with a proof and an explanation of why it works.Students, teachers, businesspeople, accountants, bank tellers, check-out clerks — anyone who uses numbers and wishes to increase his or her speed and arithmetical agility, can benefit from the clear, easy-to-follow techniques given here.

    Through long-form interviews with them we learn exactly how they did it, what their lives are like now, and what they recommend to anyone just starting out.Of course, "success" is a relative term. During the book you'll meet people ranging from Mark, who amassed a portfolio worth millions, to Serena, whose few houses saved her family from financial ruin. And along the way you'll meet Kim, who was unstoppable prior to the credit crunch, nearly lost everything, and found an innovative way to stay afloat.The day-to-day life of a property investor isn't necessarily what you'd expect either. Fast cars and exotic holidays are represented... but so too are sprinting in pursuit of rent cheques, pottering around in a dressing gown all day, and helping a tenant with cancer by driving her to hospital appointments.This book is less of a "how to" than a "how you could". It won't give you one formula for success, but many practical ideas and inspiring examples that you can use to craft your own property investment story.With all jargon clearly explained, this book will be an educational and entertaining read for those who are yet to get started, as well as a rich source of new ideas for more experienced investors.Praise for "Beyond The Bricks" "Put this on your list of property must-reads" - Property Tribes, Book of the Month"A compelling read" - Property118.com"These stories will entertain and inspire you all the way through to the end" - Your Property Network magazine

    Introverts gain energy and power through reflection and solitude. Our culture, however, is geared toward the extrovert. The pressure to enjoy parties, chatter, and interactions can lead people to think that an inward orientation is a problem instead of an opportunity. Helgoe shows that the exact opposite is true: Introverts can capitalize on this inner source of power. INTROVERT POWER is a groundbreaking call for an introvert renaissance, a blueprint for how introverts can take full advantage of this hidden strength in daily life. Supplemented by the voices of several introverts, Helgoe presents a startling look at introvert numbers, influence, and economic might. Revolutionary and invaluable, INTROVERT POWER includes ideas for how introverts can learn to: Claim private spaceCarve out time to thinkBring a slower tempo into daily lifeCreate breaks in conversation and relationshipsDeal effectively with parties, interruptions, and crowds QUIET IS MIGHT. SOLITUDE IS STRENGTH. INTROVERSION IS POWER.

    It is elegant, clever and rewarding to learn, but it is hard. Even the best students find it challenging, and those who are unprepared often find it incomprehensible at first. This book aims to ensure that no student need be unprepared. It is not like other Analysis books. It is not a textbook containing standard content. Rather, it is designed to be read before arriving at university and/or before starting an Analysis course, or as a companion text once a course is begun. It provides a friendly and readable introduction to the subject by building on the students existing understanding of six key topics: sequences, series, continuity, differentiability, integrability and the real numbers. It explains how mathematicians develop and use sophisticated formal versions of these ideas, and provides a detailed introduction to the central definitions, theorems and proofs, pointing out typical areas of difficulty and confusion and explaining how to overcome these. The book also provides study advice focused on the skills that students need if they are to build on this introduction and learn successfully in their own Analysis courses: it explains how to understand definitions, theorems and proofs by relating them to examples and diagrams, how to think productively about proofs, and how theories are taught in lectures and books on advanced mathematics. It also offers practical guidance on strategies for effective study planning. The advice throughout is research-based and is presented in an engaging style that will be accessible to students who are new to advanced abstract mathematics.

    Never started a 401k or IRA? Don’t worry. And are you so far behind in your personal finances you’re worried you’ll never be able to retire? It’s all good. Because whether you know it or not, the entire US retirement system is horribly flawed and was doomed to fail anyway. And that’s why every American needs to read “Poor Richard’s Retirement.” “Poor Richard’s Retirement” is a revolutionary retirement system because, unlike today’s conventional retirement planning, it works. It puts retirement easily within the reach of your everyday man. Whether you have student loans, a mortgage, are behind in your retirement planning, or have no retirement savings at all, “Poor Richard’s Retirement” bypasses it all by showing you how little you truly need to retire. And it does so through the simple truth that happiness is not found in $400 yoga pants, luxury SUV’s, McMansions, or whatever lies they’re selling you on TV, but through love of family, friends, and your fellow man. All of which are free. Make retirement infinitely easier and life happier. Buy “Poor Richard’s Retirement” today. Nobody in America has saved enough for retirement…until now.

    Ernest Chan, a respected independent trader and consultant, will show you how. Whether you're an independent retail trader looking to start your own quantitative trading business or an individual who aspires to work as a quantitative trader at a major financial institution, this practical guide contains the information you need to succeed.

    . . a most valuable contribution." — Douglas R. Hofstadter, author of Gödel, Escher, BachThe foundations of game theory were laid by John von Neumann, who in 1928 proved the basic minimax theorem, and with the 1944 publication of the Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, the field was established. Since then, game theory has become an enormously important discipline because of its novel mathematical properties and its many applications to social, economic, and political problems.Game theory has been used to make investment decisions, pick jurors, commit tanks to battle, allocate business expenses equitably — even to measure a senator's power, among many other uses. In this revised edition of his highly regarded work, Morton Davis begins with an overview of game theory, then discusses the two-person zero-sum game with equilibrium points; the general, two-person zero-sum game; utility theory; the two-person, non-zero-sum game; and the n-person game.A number of problems are posed at the start of each chapter and readers are given a chance to solve them before moving on. (Unlike most mathematical problems, many problems in game theory are easily understood by the lay reader.) At the end of the chapter, where solutions are discussed, readers can compare their "common sense" solutions with those of the author. Brimming with applications to an enormous variety of everyday situations, this book offers readers a fascinating, accessible introduction to one of the most fruitful and interesting intellectual systems of our time.

    G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

    

    This book helps you even the odds. Using easy-to-understand explanations and examples, it demystifies probability -- and even offers savvy tips to boost your chances of gambling success Discover how to* Conquer combinations and permutations* Understand probability models from binomial to exponential* Make good decisions using probability* Play the odds in poker, roulette, and other games