Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    This is the real stuff: dynamic, messy, baffling adoptive parenting, rooted in domestic life.Award-winning columnist and adoptive parent Sally Donovan offers savvy, compassionate advice on how to be 'good enough' in the face of both day-to-day and more bewildering challenges – how to respond to 'red mist' meltdowns, crippling anxieties about new routines and, most importantly, how to meet the intimidating challenge of being strong enough to protect and nurture your child.Full of affecting and hilarious stories drawn from life in the Donovan household, The Unofficial Guide to Adoptive Parenting offers parents a refreshing counterblast to stuffy parenting manuals -- read it, weep, laugh and learn.

    Waited for a team that could end the longest title drought on any city in America that fields teams in all four major professional sports. Waited for that one magical postseason run that could unleash a quarter-century of pent-up frustration. And then these '08 Phillies hopped on that magic carpet and made it happen. Unlike so many Phillies teams that were haunted by the past, this team was inspired by it, by the chance to place its own inimitable stamp on the franchise. And as the 2 million people who attended their championship parade can attest, it was Worth the Wait.

    In other words, she’s got it all. Who Peed on My Yoga Mat? peels back the curtain on family life to show that happiness is really a matter of perspective. Between watching adorably annoying toddlers transform into text-obsessed teens, and facing inevitable moments of marital “for worse,” a girl’s got to carve out time for inner peace. As she did in Blacklisted from the PTA, Davidson shows us once again that laughing at yourself and your family is the surest path to tranquility–or at least the most fun.

    Laura Schlessinger's mission. A devoted mother to her son, Deryk, she identifies herself as "her kid's mom" because that's her most important job.Never one to shy away from tough truths, Dr. Laura marshalls compelling evidence for the widespread neglect of America's children and convincingly condemns the numerous rationalizations to excuse it. Parents, special interest groups, and professionals in education and psychology all contribute to a dangerous trend that places adult fulfillment above obligation to children. Parenthood by Proxy addresses the serious causes and effects of this national crisis, among them the high rate of divorce, serial marriages, single parenting, the premature sexualization of children, dual-career families, disdain for religion, the redefinition of immoral behavior as lifestyle choices, and societal intolerance for the concept of judgment.In Parenthood by Proxy, Dr. Laura exhorts parents to make their own children their top priority and, if necessary, to change their lives to do so. In her inimitable, straight-shooting style, Dr. Laura entreats parents to involve themselves in their children's hearts, minds, and souls, to cherish and protect them, and to commit to the essential task of teaching them right from wrong. She acknowledges that parents no longer get much support from neighbors or public and private institutions, but she urges mothers and fathers to work even harder to counteract the prevailing culture of selfishness and irresponsibility.Parenthood by Proxy covers all aspects of parenting, from childbearing to discipline, from multiple families to being role models. Dr. Laura also tackles such cultural and societal concerns as abortion, modern sexuality, drug and alcohol use, violence, discipline, and a child's right to privacy.Parenthood by Proxy is a passionate and provocative summation of the perils of parenting and a road map to safety for America's families.

    Whether you are single, dating, or engaged, Gary’s unique perspective on dating will prepare you for a satisfying, spiritually enriching marriage even before you walk down the aisle. As Gary reminds us, a good marriage is not something you find—it’s something you make.

    It will teach prospective fathers, in no-nonsense terms, how to survive the first 24 hours; how to Prepare and Plan to Prevent Poor Parental Performance; how to maintain morale in the ranks; how to feed, clothe, transport, and entertain your troops; how to transport the troops successfully on maneuvers; how to increase your "flash to bang" time and "square away" tasks along the way; and much more. Let training commence.

    

    It also provides more general information on AD/HD. All of the information is presented to kids in fun, engaging activities that challenge their skills and empower them to strive to be their best. Includes an Introduction for Parents and Professionals. From the Introduction: Once children have begun to understand what it means to have an attention disorder and take steps to positively influence their own lives, they benefit from the opportunity to try ideas on their own and thus develop a repertoire of behaviors that work for them at home and school. This Activity Book introduces a wide range of suggestions that can be used to gain mastery over some of the more difficult aspects of AD/HD: distractibility, impulsivity, poor planning skills, lack of organization, and a sense of isolation from peers....We have attempted to address the issues that children, parents, counselors and teachers have identified as particularly problematic in dealing with AD/HD. Approaching these issues from our combined backgrounds in pediatrics and education has encouraged us to look at the varied ways children with AD/HD can become involved with understanding AD/HD, making improvements, and having fun in the process.

    This book looks closer at the patterns and similarites between those who are the eldest or the youngest or the middle child in a family and explains exactly how we are affected by not only our own siblings but even our parents and their siblings.

    Grant shows how women can integrate back into their lives the feminine aspects they have lost.

    In a world of modern, involved, caring parents, why are so many kids aggressive and cruel?  Where is intelligence hidden in the brain, and why does that matter?  Why do cross-racial friendships decrease in schools that are more integrated?  If 98% of kids think lying is morally wrong, then why do 98% of kids lie?  What's the single most important thing that helps infants learn language?NurtureShock is a groundbreaking collaboration between award-winning science journalists Po Bronson and Ashley Merryman.  They argue that when it comes to children, we've mistaken good intentions for good ideas.  With impeccable storytelling and razor-sharp analysis, they demonstrate that many of modern society's strategies for nurturing children are in fact backfiring--because key twists in the science have been overlooked.Nothing like a parenting manual, the authors' work is an insightful exploration of themes and issues that transcend children's (and adults') lives.

    This is a healing book, one t hat can help people overcome the pain of loving someone who does not or cannot them back. If you--or someone you care about--are struggling to recover from the loss of a lover, or to end a dead-end affair, this will come as a godsend. Nationally renowned Dr. Debora Phillips give you the complete proven program that lets you: --diminish, then dismiss a destructive love--say goodbye to jealousy--rebuild your inner strength and confidence--discover and enjoy a new love that is right for you.

    One essentially comes from the Harvard Business School camp, and it’s perhaps best described as “Thou Shalt Collaborate.” This approach teaches that negotiating parties should always work together toward common interests. The other school of thought, mostly pushed by author/consultant Roger Dawson, takes an opposite approach. Call it “Thou Shalt Compete,” this approach is always overtly or subtly adversarial. The One Minute Negotiator differs in that it doesn’t single-mindedly push one strategy over the other—in the real world every negotiation differs depending on the participants and the circumstances. The authors provide an easy-to-use tool that allows you to understand your own negotiation strategy and quickly match it to the negotiation strategy used by the other side and to the situation.   Too many people lose out in negotiations because of apprehension and misunderstanding about the process—what the authors call “negotiaphobia”. By providing a simple, straightforward process anyone can use The One Minute Negotiator to help conquer their fears and achieve the most beneficial outcome in all their dealings.

    Paul Axtell has spent twenty-five years helping individuals in enhance their personal effectiveness by changing the way they look at relationships and conversation. In this book, he applies that wisdom to navigating life as a parent. This book will help you think about your conversations in a new light and guide you toward deeper, more meaningful connections. Father to two wonderful adults and grandfather to thirteen children in his blended family, he knows it's never too late to work on creating great relationships.