If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. You've got to have models in your head."- Charlie Munger, investor, vice chairman of Berkshire HathawayThe world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more.Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples... • If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize. • Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem. • Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation. • Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy. • Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur.So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.Note: in the US the subtitle is The Big Book of Mental Models and outside it is Upgrade Your Reasoning and Make Better Decisions with Mental Models.

    The authors help students learn key sociological concepts through real research examples related to the dynamic interplay of race, class, gender, and other social variables.

    Behavior analysts offer a worldview of the human condition different than almost any other professional perspective. To a behavior analyst, human behavior is largely learned and subject to change if the right variables are put into play. This is an empowering outlook, providing an opportunity for individuals to analyze the actions of those around them and an understanding of why others exhibit such behavior.Practical, clear, and direct, this book addresses basic questions such as how behavior analysis is different from psychotherapy, what analysis involves, and the meaning of evidence-based treatment. A chapter on Applications presents tips on using behavioral procedures to improve lives and deal with others, and articulates how behavioral procedures are used in community settings. In question and answer format, the text thoroughly covers 50 frequently asked questions about behavior analysis in an educational and entertaining manner. It was developed out of questions raised by students in behavior analysis classes over the last 35 years, as well as questions raised by consumers of behavior analysis services.This text is written for all professionals concerned with behavior, including undergraduate students in psychology and behavior analysis, parents, teachers, employers, and employees. The book can easily be used as a supplement to primary texts in introductory psychology courses, and the exercises that follow each question can be used to stimulate lively discussion in role-play and other active learning situations.

    Behind the headlines, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard tells her own story, along with her unique perspective on leadership, technology, globalization, sexism, and many other issues.

    Cialdini, author of Influence: Science and Practice“Joe Navarro brings together the art and science of nonverbal communications for the business sector with the edge of a former FBI agent and the insight of a world-class observer.” — Jack Canfield, co-author of The Success PrinciplesJoe Navarro, bestselling author of What Every Body Is Saying and Phil Hellmuth Presents Read ‘Em and Reap and former FBI agent specializing in behavioral analysis, helps you successfully navigate the business world by training your brain to see what others are feeling, thinking, or intending. Job hunters and professionals of every ilk—as well as fans of the hit FOX television series Lie to Me—will find many helpful and effective tips to reading body language and microexpressions in Louder than Words.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Meetings are a crucial part of all our lives, but too often they go nowhere and waste valuable time. In Six Thinking Hats, Edward de Bono shows how meetings can be transformed to produce quick, decisive results every time. The Six Hats method is a devastatingly simple technique based on the brain's different modes of thinking. The intelligence, experience and information of everyone is harnessed to reach the right conclusions quickly. These principles fundamentally change the way you work and interact. They have been adopted by businesses and governments around the world to end conflict and confusion in favour of harmony and productivity. 'An inspiring man with brilliant ideas. De Bono never ceases to amaze with his clarity of thought' Richard Branson.Edward de Bono invented the concept of lateral thinking. A world-renowned writer and philosopher, he is the leading authority in the field of creative thinking and the direct teaching of thinking as a skill. Dr de Bono has written more than 60 books, in 40 languages, with people now teaching his methods worldwide. He has chaired a special summit of Nobel Prize laureates, and been hailed as one of the 250 people who have contributed most to mankind

    Yet few of us even recognize what our stories are, or that we can transform our very destinies by changing the stories we tell.For decades, at the Human Performance Institute, Dr. Jim Loehr has been examining the power of story to increase engagement and productivity, and top Fortune 500 companies have paid millions to send employees to his program, in which he applies the principles and methods that he now offers here. Global business leaders, world-class athletes, military special forces, and thousands of individuals from every walk of life have sought out and benefited from his life-altering insight and expertise.Telling ourselves stories provides structure and direction as we navigate life's challenges and opportunities, and helps us interpret our goals and skills. Loehr's approach to creating deeply engaging stories will give you the tools to wield the power of storytelling and forever change your business and personal life.

    http://wps.pearsoned.co.uk/ema_ge_lau...

    Frank Luntz comes an unprecedented examination of communication excellence and how top performers win in all areas of human endeavor by utilizing superb communication skills. From Mike Bloomberg and Arnold Schwarzenegger to business icons Rupert Murdoch, Steve Wynn, and Fred Smith; to the CEOs of MGM Resorts, J. Crew, and Gibson Guitar; to legendary sports superstars like Larry Bird, Jimmy Connors, and Mike Richter; to media legends Roger Ailes, Don Imus, and dozens more, Luntz tells their stories--in their own words--and demonstrates how their style of operation and communication is absolutely essential to their success. Luntz makes it clear that following the rules of effective communication is indispensable in any successful human endeavor.Dr. Luntz offers more than seventy new "words that work" for private one-on-one meetings with your boss, for public presentations to hundreds of colleagues, or for television appearances that reach millions. There are more than three dozen specific lessons and recommendations--and each one directly illustrates the nine essential action-oriented principles of winning at every level: People-Centered, Paradigm-Breaking, Prioritizing, Perfection, Partnerships, Passion, Persuasion, Persistence, and Principled Actions.Do you have what it takes Win is an unprecedented examination of the art, science, and language of winning, and a must-have for people who want to understand and emulate the winners of today. THE DEFINITION OF WINNINGThe ability to grasp the human dimension of every situationThe ability to know what questions to ask and when to ask themThe ability to see the challenge, and the solution, from every angleThe ability to communicate their vision passionately and persuasivelyThe ability to connect with others and create an enduring chemistryand 10 other universal attributes of winners.

    But what is new is the "wise pivot," a replicable strategy for harnessing disruption to survive, grow, and be relevant to the future. It's a strategy for perpetual reinvention across the old, now, and new elements of any business.Rapid recent advances in technology are forcing leaders in every business to rethink long-held beliefs about how to adapt to emerging technologies and new markets. What has become abundantly clear: in the digital age, conventional wisdom about business transformation no longer works, if it ever did.Based on Accenture's own experience of reinventing itself in the face of disruption, the company's real world client work, and a rigorous two-year study of thousands of businesses across 30 industries, Pivot to the Future reveals methodical and bold moves for finding and releasing new sources of trapped value-unlocked by bridging the gap between what is technologically possible and how technologies are being used. The freed value enables companies to simultaneously reinvent their legacy, and current and new businesses.Pivot to the Future is for leaders who seek to turn the existential threats of today and tomorrow into sustainable growth, with the courage to understand that a wise pivot strategy is not a one-time event, but a commitment to a future of perpetual reinvention, where one pivot is followed by the next and the next.

    

    A lot of what we believe and do is bullshit, yet we walk around thinking our way of doing things is inherently correct. Why do we exchange diamond engagement rings? Why is wine so expensive? How does art become “art”? Why do so many non-profits want us to donate cars to them? Why does college cost so much? Why do so many pets die in animal shelters? Why is the world the way it is? Everything is Bullshit, by Priceonomics, is an investigation to find the answers.

    Another is composing classical music. Labs are creating life-forms from synthetic DNA. A doctor designs an artificial trachea, uses a 3D printer to produce it, and implants it and saves a child's life. Astonishing technological advances like these are arriving in increasing numbers. Scholar and entrepreneur Vivek Wadhwa uses this book to alert us to dozens of them and raise important questions about what they may mean for us. Breakthroughs such as personalized genomics, self-driving vehicles, drones, and artificial intelligence could make our lives healthier, safer, and easier. But the same technologies raise the specter of a frightening, alienating future: eugenics, a jobless economy, complete loss of privacy, and ever-worsening economic inequality. As Wadhwa puts it, our choices will determine if our future is Star Trek or Mad Max. Wadhwa offers us three questions to ask about every emerging technology: Does it have the potential to benefit everyone equally? What are its risks and rewards? And does it promote autonomy or dependence? Looking at a broad array of advances in this light, he emphasizes that the future is up to us to create--that even if our hands are not on the wheel, we will decide the driverless car's destination.ContentsPreface IntroductionPART ONE: The Here and Now1. A bitter taste of dystopia2. Welcome to Moore’s world3. How change will affect us personally and why choices matter4. If change is always the answer, what are the questions?PART TWO: Does the technology have the potential to benefit everyone equally?5. The amazing and scary rise of Artificial Intelligence6. Remaking education with avatars and A.I.7. We are becoming data; our doctors, softwarePART THREE: What are the risks and the rewards?8. Robotics and Biology: The inevitable merging of man and machine9. Security and privacy in an era of ubiquitous connectivity10. The drones are coming11. Designer genes, the bacteria in our guts, and precision medicinePART FOUR: Does the technology foster autonomy or dependency?12. Your own private driver: Self-driving cars, trucks, and planes13. When your scale talks to your refrigerator: The Internet of Things14. The future of your body is electric15. Almost free energy and foodConclusion: So will it be Star Trek or Mad Max?NotesAcknowledgmentsIndexAbout the authors

    Once an esoteric tool for academic research, the randomized controlled trial has gone mainstream. No tech company worth its salt (or its share price) would dare make major changes to its platform without first running experiments to understand how they would influence user behavior. In this book, Michael Luca and Max Bazerman explain the importance of experiments for decision making in a data-driven world.Luca and Bazerman describe the central role experiments play in the tech sector, drawing lessons and best practices from the experiences of such companies as StubHub, Alibaba, and Uber. Successful experiments can save companies money--eBay, for example, discovered how to cut $50 million from its yearly advertising budget--or bring to light something previously ignored, as when Airbnb was forced to confront rampant discrimination by its hosts. Moving beyond tech, Luca and Bazerman consider experimenting for the social good--different ways that govenments are using experiments to influence or "nudge" behavior ranging from voter apathy to school absenteeism. Experiments, they argue, are part of any leader's toolkit. With this book, readers can become part of "the experimental revolution."