To what extent do we control our own destiny? Can those who have risen to the top really say it was all down to them? Is lucky success somehow less deserving? Watch Ed Smith talk about Luck

    Underlining the importance of critical thinking in all matters numerical, Best illustrates his points with examples of good and bad statistics about such contemporary concerns as school shootings, fatal hospital errors, bullying, teen suicides, deaths at the World Trade Center, college ratings, the risks of divorce, racial profiling, and fatalities caused by falling coconuts."More Damned Lies and Statistics" encourages all of us to think in a more sophisticated and skeptical manner about how statistics are used to promote causes, create fear, and advance particular points of view.

     According to MSNBC, having a child makes you stupid. You actually lose IQ points. Good Morning America has announced that natural blondes will be extinct within two hundred years. Pundits estimated that there were more than a million demonstrators at a tea party rally in Washington, D.C., even though roughly sixty thousand were there. Numbers have peculiar powers-they can disarm skeptics, befuddle journalists, and hoodwink the public into believing almost anything. "Proofiness," as Charles Seife explains in this eye-opening book, is the art of using pure mathematics for impure ends, and he reminds readers that bad mathematics has a dark side. It is used to bring down beloved government officials and to appoint undeserving ones (both Democratic and Republican), to convict the innocent and acquit the guilty, to ruin our economy, and to fix the outcomes of future elections. This penetrating look at the intersection of math and society will appeal to readers of Freakonomics and the books of Malcolm Gladwell.

    But scientists in the late 20th century have found patterns in things formerly thought to be chaotic; their theories help explain the unstable irregular yet highly structured features of everyday experience. It now seems likely that randomness and chaos play an essential role in the evolution of the living world-and of intelligence itself. Script by Dr. Roger White.

    Dennett on decoding the architecture of the "normal" human mindSarah-Jayne Blakemore on mental disorders and the crucial developmental phase of adolescenceJonathan Haidt, Sam Harris, and Roy Baumeister on the science of morality, ethics, and the emerging synthesis of evolutionary and biological thinkingGerd Gigerenzer on rationality and what informs our choices

    That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.

    

    The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

    And the subject of these stories—how small and seemingly meaningless decisions and actions by individuals often lead to significant unintended consequences for a large group—is more important than ever. In one famous example, Thomas C. Schelling shows that a slight-but-not-malicious preference to have neighbors of the same race eventually leads to completely segregated populations.The updated edition of this landmark book contains a new preface and the author's Nobel Prize acceptance speech.

    Chanakya who was born around 3rd BC in Bharat (now Hindustan), astute, shrewd and ruthless political master. Equally selfless and patriotic teacher who politically united the small states post invasion of Greeks and reclaimed the boundaries of Bharat stretching from Puruvarsha (Persia, now Iran), Gansthan (now Afghanistan) to far east of Magadh (Bihar state). We know Chanakya for his Niti-shashtras, for his voluminous work on economy, maxims of wisdom and intelligence. But we do not know much about minute details with which he governed the country at that time. We do not know, during his time of around 3rd BCE, at how much advance stage the economy, public life, administration, industries, defence mechanisms, taxations, public-private partnerships, foreign policy, judicial systems, banking and accounting systems ….. were there in India. It seems, they all were in more than perfect stage compared to present scenario factoring advancement in science and technology etc. We will look at each of them one by one. In this book, “Chanakya Niti on Corruption”, we will take a look at corruption. What Chanakya thinks about sources of corruption, ways of finding about corruption, judgements and punishments of corruptions etc. Chanakya knows very well that just like it is impossible to know when and how much water a fish drinks, it is utmost difficult to know how much money government officials steal away while in charge of it. Knowing human nature which succumbs to greed, fear, lust, anger or any such tamas gunas, and indulges in acts of corruption to accumulate wealth in the country or outside. Chanakya keeps eye on conduct and life style of not only ministers, but all levels of the government officials too. Chanakya takes multi pronged approach to tackle and eradicate corruption. He knows that by establishing one department to tackle corruption problems are not going to be solved, instead will increase many fold later when that department itself becomes corrupt eventually. He relies on spying, continuous intelligence gathering, harsh punishments leading to deaths, rewards who bring to notice acts of corruptions by officials etc, promotions and rewards to who do their job righteously. Not only that, 3rd century BC, do you imagine there were clear cut rules and guidelines how to write account books, !. At that time, he knew that what impact it creates on overall economy and nation building, if sanctioned amount for projects are not utilised actually? Chanakya knows corruption is contiguous, and he tackles such problems too with well laid out and practical laws to follow at that time. Looking at the crux of the guidelines what Chanakya outlines, it seems that essence of those laws are applicable still today with more verbatim or expansion of words to suite and cover present scenarios. But, the essence remains same. He knew that in corruption free country, trade and business, entrepreneurship and industries flourishes and so overall wealth, health and security of the nation. I hope reading this book "Chanakya Niti on Corruption", will open up a window to explore further on how an Indian political guru administered this nation 3rd century BCE.

    This highly accessible book is aimed at anyone who wants to improve their financial situation, from the financial novice who needs clear basic guidelines on how to deal with money to those who are more financially savvy but want to supplement their knowledge. Covering a range of topics, from saving, investing, debt management, buying a house to blunders to avoid, Become Your Own Financial Advisor provides people of all ages and levels of wealth with practical information on how to improve their finances. And, in the process, proves that financial freedom is possible for everyone.

    In this book, Markus Brunnermeier, Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau argue that the core problem with the Euro lies in the philosophical differences between the founding countries of the Eurozone, particularly Germany and France. But the authors also show how these seemingly incompatible differences can be reconciled to ensure Europe's survival.As the authors demonstrate, Germany, a federal state with strong regional governments, saw the Maastricht Treaty, the framework for the Euro, as a set of rules. France, on the other hand, with a more centralized system of government, saw the framework as flexible, to be overseen by governments. The authors discuss how the troubles faced by the Euro have led its member states to focus on national, as opposed to collective, responses, a reaction explained by the resurgence of the battle of economic ideas: rules vs. discretion, liability vs. solidarity, solvency vs. liquidity, austerity vs. stimulus.Weaving together economic analysis and historical reflection, The Euro and the Battle of Ideas provides a forensic investigation and a road map for Europe's future.

    This, he says, is "all that matters," and his latest book aims to demystify buying principles for salespeople. From the red cloth cover to the small trim size to the amusing (but not cloying) cartoons on almost every page, this is an appealing and accessible book. The author is obviously enthusiastic, if not manic, about sales, and though some of his mantras verge on hokey, much of his prose is straightforward and realistic. Each chapter includes a mini table of contents, pull quotes and takeaway sound bites, examples of typical whines from salespeople (e.g., "the client said they spent their whole budget") paired with a positive response (e.g., "Decision makers make the budget. Non-decision makers spend the budget"), and plenty of advice and ideas that can be taken in and studied as a whole or referred to at random for inspiration. Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Review This isn't just a red book; it's a Red Bull of high-energy sales tips & counsel. -- David Dorsey, The Wall Street Journal (May 3rd 2006) See all Editorial Reviews -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Product Details Hardcover: 220 pages Publisher: Bard Press; 1st edition (September 25, 2004) Language: English ISBN-10: 1885167601 ISBN-13: 978-1885167606 Product Dimensions: 7.6 x 5.2 x 0.7 inches Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces

    Pittsburghers joked their town was the city of champions…and the Pirates. Big Data Baseball is the story of how the 2013 Pirates, mired in the longest losing streak in North American pro sports history, adopted drastic big-data strategies to end the drought, make the playoffs, and turn around the franchise's fortunes.Award-winning journalist Travis Sawchik takes you behind the scenes to expertly weave together the stories of the key figures who changed the way the small-market Pirates played the game. For manager Clint Hurdle and the front office staff to save their jobs, they could not rely on a free agent spending spree, instead they had to improve the sum of their parts and find hidden value. They had to change. From Hurdle shedding his old-school ways to work closely with Neal Huntington, the forward-thinking data-driven GM and his team of talented analysts; to pitchers like A. J. Burnett and Gerrit Cole changing what and where they threw; to Russell Martin, the undervalued catcher whose expert use of the nearly-invisible skill of pitch framing helped the team's pitchers turn more balls into strikes; to Clint Barmes, a solid shortstop and one of the early adopters of the unconventional on-field shift which forced the entire infield to realign into positions they never stood in before. Under Hurdle's leadership, a culture of collaboration and creativity flourished as he successfully blended whiz kid analysts with graybeard coaches—a kind of symbiotic teamwork which was unique to the sport.Big Data Baseball is Moneyball on steroids. It is an entertaining and enlightening underdog story that uses the 2013 Pirates season as the perfect lens to examine the sport's burgeoning big-data movement. With the help of data-tracking systems like PitchF/X and TrackMan, the Pirates collected millions of data points on every pitch and ball in play to create a tome of color-coded reports that revealed groundbreaking insights for how to win more games without spending a dime. In the process, they discovered that most batters struggled to hit two-seam fastballs, that an aggressive defensive shift on the field could turn more batted balls into outs, and that a catcher's most valuable skill was hidden. All these data points which aren't immediately visible to players and spectators, are the bit of magic that led the Pirates to spin straw in to gold, finish the 2013 season in second place, end a twenty-year losing streak.