In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

    "Real time" means news breaks over minutes, not days. It means companies develop (or refine) products or services instantly, based on feedback from customers or events in the marketplace. And it's when businesses see an opportunity and are the first to act on it. In this eye-opening follow-up to The New Rules of Marketing and PR, a BusinessWeek bestseller, David Meerman Scott reveals the proven, practical steps to take your business into the real-time era.Find out how to act and react flexibly as events occur, position your brand in the always-on world of the Web, and avoid embarrassing mistakes and missteps. Real-Time Marketing and PR will also enable you to:Develop a business culture that encourages speed over sloth Read buying signals as people interact with your online information Crowdsource product development, naming, and even marketing materials such as online videos Engage reporters to shape stories as they are being written Command premium prices by delivering products at speed Deploy technology to listen in on millions of online discussions and instantly engage with customers and buyers Scale and media buying power are no longer a decisive advantage. What counts today is speed and agility. While your competitors scramble to adjust, you can seize the initiative, open new channels, and grow your brand. Master Real-Time Marketing and PR today and become the first to act, the first to respond, and the first to win!

    New material in the third edition includes: - A new chapter--complete with colorful examples from Lloyds of London and Sumitomo Metals--on how risky behavior can lead to disaster in private markets.- An evaluation of the Federal Reserves role in reining in economic growth to prevent inflation, and the debate over whether its growth targets are too low.- A look at the collapse of the Mexican peso and the burst of Japans bubble economy.- A revised discussion of the federal budget deficit, including the growing concern that Social Security and Medicare payments to retiring baby boomers will threaten the solvency of the government. Finally, in the updated concluding section, the author provides three possible scenarios for the American economy over the next decade. He warns that we live in an age of diminished expectations, in which the voting public is willing to settle for policy drift--but with the first of the baby boomers turning 65 in 2011, the U.S. economy will not be able to drift indefinitely.

    Written By Two Of Today'S Most Respected Computer Science Educators, Nell Dale And John Lewis, The Text Provides A Broad Overview Of The Many Aspects Of The Discipline From A Generic View Point. Separate Program Language Chapters Are Available As Bundle Items For Those Instructors Who Would Like To Explore A Particular Programming Language With Their Students. The Many Layers Of Computing Are Thoroughly Explained Beginning With The Information Layer, Working Through The Hardware, Programming, Operating Systems, Application, And Communication Layers, And Ending With A Discussion On The Limitations Of Computing. Perfect For Introductory Computing And Computer Science Courses, Computer Science Illuminated, Third Edition's Thorough Presentation Of Computing Systems Provides Computer Science Majors With A Solid Foundation For Further Study, And Offers Non-Majors A Comprehensive And Complete Introduction To Computing.

    Traditional mathematics teaching is largely about solving exactly stated problems exactly, yet life often hands us partly defined problems needing only moderately accurate solutions. This engaging book is an antidote to the rigor mortis brought on by too much mathematical rigor, teaching us how to guess answers without needing a proof or an exact calculation.In Street-Fighting Mathematics, Sanjoy Mahajan builds, sharpens, and demonstrates tools for educated guessing and down-and-dirty, opportunistic problem solving across diverse fields of knowledge--from mathematics to management. Mahajan describes six tools: dimensional analysis, easy cases, lumping, picture proofs, successive approximation, and reasoning by analogy. Illustrating each tool with numerous examples, he carefully separates the tool--the general principle--from the particular application so that the reader can most easily grasp the tool itself to use on problems of particular interest. Street-Fighting Mathematics grew out of a short course taught by the author at MIT for students ranging from first-year undergraduates to graduate students ready for careers in physics, mathematics, management, electrical engineering, computer science, and biology. They benefited from an approach that avoided rigor and taught them how to use mathematics to solve real problems.Street-Fighting Mathematics will appear in print and online under a Creative Commons Noncommercial Share Alike license.

    Now, two science professors give us the tools to dismantle misinformation and think clearly in a world of fake news and bad data.It's increasingly difficult to know what's true. Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news abound. Our media environment has become hyperpartisan. Science is conducted by press release. Startup culture elevates bullshit to high art. We are fairly well equipped to spot the sort of old-school bullshit that is based in fancy rhetoric and weasel words, but most of us don't feel qualified to challenge the avalanche of new-school bullshit presented in the language of math, science, or statistics. In Calling Bullshit, Professors Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West give us a set of powerful tools to cut through the most intimidating data.You don't need a lot of technical expertise to call out problems with data. Are the numbers or results too good or too dramatic to be true? Is the claim comparing like with like? Is it confirming your personal bias? Drawing on a deep well of expertise in statistics and computational biology, Bergstrom and West exuberantly unpack examples of selection bias and muddled data visualization, distinguish between correlation and causation, and examine the susceptibility of science to modern bullshit.We have always needed people who call bullshit when necessary, whether within a circle of friends, a community of scholars, or the citizenry of a nation. Now that bullshit has evolved, we need to relearn the art of skepticism.

    The content of this book has been used successfully with students whose mathematics background consists of calculus and calculus-based probability. The text gives both precise statements of results, plausibility arguments, and even some proofs, but more importantly intuitive explanations developed and refine through classroom experience with this material are provided. The book includes a self-contained treatment of the probability theory needed for shastic calculus, including Brownian motion and its properties. Advanced topics include foreign exchange models, forward measures, and jump-diffusion processes.This book is being published in two volumes. This second volume develops shastic calculus, martingales, risk-neutral pricing, exotic options and term structure models, all in continuous time.Masters level students and researchers in mathematical finance and financial engineering will find this book useful.Steven E. Shreve is Co-Founder of the Carnegie Mellon MS Program in Computational Finance and winner of the Carnegie Mellon Doherty Prize for sustained contributions to education.

    Articles from Game Theory Tuesdays have been referenced in The Freakonomics Blog, Yahoo Finance, and CNN.com. The second edition includes many streamlined explanations and incorporates suggestions from readers of the first edition. Game theory is the study of interactive decision making--that is, in situations where each person's action affects the outcome for the whole group. Game theory is a beautiful subject and this book will teach you how to understand the theory and practically implement solutions through a series of stories and the aid of over 30 illustrations. This book has two primary objectives. (1) To help you recognize strategic games, like the Prisoner's Dilemma, Bertrand Duopoly, Hotelling's Game, the Game of Chicken, and Mutually Assured Destruction. (2) To show you how to make better decisions and change the game, a powerful concept that can transform no-win situations into mutually beneficial outcomes. You'll learn how to negotiate better by making your threats credible, sometimes limiting options or burning bridges, and thinking about new ways to create better outcomes. As these goals indicate, game theory is about more than board games and gambling. It all seems so simple, and yet that definition belies the complexity of game theory. While it may only take seconds to get a sense of game theory, it takes a lifetime to appreciate and master it. This book will get you started.

    Albert-László Barabási, the nation’s foremost expert in the new science of networks and author of Bursts, takes us on an intellectual adventure to prove that social networks, corporations, and living organisms are more similar than previously thought. Grasping a full understanding of network science will someday allow us to design blue-chip businesses, stop the outbreak of deadly diseases, and influence the exchange of ideas and information. Just as James Gleick and the Erdos–Rényi model brought the discovery of chaos theory to the general public, Linked tells the story of the true science of the future and of experiments in statistical mechanics on the internet, all vital parts of what would eventually be called the Barabási–Albert model.

    Whether they bind computers, economies, or terrorist organizations, networks are everywhere in the real world, yet only recently have scientists attempted to explain their mysterious workings.From epidemics of disease to outbreaks of market madness, from people searching for information to firms surviving crisis and change, from the structure of personal relationships to the technological and social choices of entire societies, Watts weaves together a network of discoveries across an array of disciplines to tell the story of an explosive new field of knowledge, the people who are building it, and his own peculiar path in forging this new science.

    By the mid-1990s the old school grizzled traders had been replaced by a new breed of quantitative analysts, applying mathematics to the "art" of trading and making of it a science. A similar phenomenon is happening in poker. The grizzled "road gamblers" are being replaced by a new generation of players who have challenged many of the assumptions that underlie traditional approaches to the game. One of the most important features of this new approach is a reliance on quantitative analysis and the application of mathematics to the game. This book provides an introduction to quantitative techniques as applied to poker and to a branch of mathematics that is particularly applicable to poker, game theory, in a manner that makes seemingly difficult topics accessible to players without a strong mathematical background.

    With easy-to-use examples and loads of screenshots, Faster is the perfect digital companion for you.

    While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the storm” maps shown on TV every hurricane season.Many of us are ill equipped to interpret the visuals that politicians, journalists, advertisers, and even employers present each day, enabling bad actors to easily manipulate visuals to promote their own agendas. Public conversations are increasingly driven by numbers, and to make sense of them we must be able to decode and use visual information. By examining contemporary examples ranging from election-result infographics to global GDP maps and box-office record charts, How Charts Lie teaches us how to do just that.

    The author has road-tested all the ideas and the chapters are completely independent of one another so readers can easily dip in and out of sections.

    Written by authors who are highly regarded in the field, the text provides sound methodological development. The discussion and development of each technique is presented in an application setting, with the statistical results providing insights to decisions and solutions to problems. Statistics for Business and Economics, 9e offers proven accuracy that has led instructors to adopt it simply for its superior examples and exercises alone.