It should prove a real boon to the student of Peirce." — The Modern SchoolmanCharles S. Peirce was a thinker of great originality and power. Although unpublished in his lifetime, he was recognized as an equal by such men as William James and John Dewey and, since his death in 1914, has come to the forefront of American philosophy. This volume, prepared by the Johnsonian Professor of Philosophy at Columbia University, formerly chairman of Columbia's philosophy department, is a carefully balanced exposition of Peirce's complete philosophical system as set forth in his own writings.The 28 chapters, in which appropriate sections of Peirce's work are interwoven into a brilliant selection that reveals his essential ideas, cover epistemology, phenomenology, cosmology, and scientific method, with especially interesting material on logic as the theory of signs, pure chance vs, pure law in the universe, symbolic logic, common sense, pragmatism (of which he was the founder), and ethics.Justus Buchler is author of Charles Peirce's Empiricism (1939), Philosophy: An Introduction (with J. H. Randall, Jr., 1942), and more recently, a series of books which form an ongoing philosophic structure: Toward a General Theory of Human Judgement (1951), Nature and Judgment (1855), and The Concept of Method (1961). It has been said of these volumes, "A fresh and vital system of ideas has been introduced into the world of contemporary philosophy." (Journal of Philosophy)."It is a very signal advantage to have this collection of Peirce's most important work within the covers of a single substantial volume. We should all be very grateful to Mr. Buchler." — John Laird, Philosophy

    In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

    Unlike party puzzles or brain teasers, many paradoxes are serious in that they raise serious philosophical problems, and are associated with crises of thought and revolutionary advances. To grapple with them is not merely to engage in an intellectual game, but to come to grips with issues of real import. The second, revised edition of this intriguing book expands and updates the text to take account of new work on the subject. It provides a valuable and accessible introduction to a range of paradoxes and their possible solutions, with questions designed to engage the reader with the arguments and full bibliographical references to both classic and current literature on the topic.

    In 1935, aged 22, he developed the mathematical theory upon which all subsequent stored-program digital computers are modeled.At the outbreak of hostilities with Germany in September 1939, he joined the Government Codebreaking team at Bletchley Park, Buckinghamshire and played a crucial role in deciphering Engima, the code used by the German armed forces to protect their radio communications. Turing's work on the versionof Enigma used by the German navy was vital to the battle for supremacy in the North Atlantic. He also contributed to the attack on the cyphers known as Fish, which were used by the German High Command for the encryption of signals during the latter part of the war. His contribution helped toshorten the war in Europe by an estimated two years.After the war, his theoretical work led to the development of Britain's first computers at the National Physical Laboratory and the Royal Society Computing Machine Laboratory at Manchester University.Turing was also a founding father of modern cognitive science, theorizing that the cortex at birth is an unorganized machine which through training becomes organized into a universal machine or something like it. He went on to develop the use of computers to model biological growth, launchingthe discipline now referred to as Artificial Life.The papers in this book are the key works for understanding Turing's phenomenal contribution across all these fields. The collection includes Turing's declassified wartime Treatise on the Enigma; letters from Turing to Churchill and to codebreakers; lectures, papers, and broadcasts which opened upthe concept of AI and its implications; and the paper which formed the genesis of the investigation of Artifical Life.

    In these cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and ruthless con men, Sherlock Holmes uses his deep understanding of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory to solve crimes and protect the innocent. But it's not just the characters in these well-crafted stories that are deceived by statistics or fall prey to gambling fallacies. We all suffer from the results of poor decisions. In this illuminating collection, Bruce entertains while teaching us to avoid similar blunders. From "The Execution of Andrews" to "The Case of the Gambling Nobleman," there has never been a more exciting way to learn when to take a calculated risk-and how to spot a scam.

    Composed of such luminaries as Kurt Gödel and Rudolf Carnap, and stimulated by the works of Ludwig Wittgenstein and Karl Popper, the Vienna Circle left an indelible mark on science.Exact Thinking in Demented Times tells the often outrageous, sometimes tragic, and never boring stories of the men who transformed scientific thought. A revealing work of history, this landmark book pays tribute to those who dared to reinvent knowledge from the ground up.

    Following on the success of Quadrivium and Sciencia, Trivium gathers six Wooden Books titles together into a beautiful six-color package that presents ancient wisdom in an accessible way. Trivium includes the books Euphonics, Grammar, Logic, Rhetoric,, Poetic Meter and Form, and Ethics.

    The many aspects of our lives that are governed by social networks make it critical to understand how they impact behavior, which network structures are likely to emerge in a society, and why we organize ourselves as we do. In Social and Economic Networks, Matthew Jackson offers a comprehensive introduction to social and economic networks, drawing on the latest findings in economics, sociology, computer science, physics, and mathematics. He provides empirical background on networks and the regularities that they exhibit, and discusses random graph-based models and strategic models of network formation. He helps readers to understand behavior in networked societies, with a detailed analysis of learning and diffusion in networks, decision making by individuals who are influenced by their social neighbors, game theory and markets on networks, and a host of related subjects. Jackson also describes the varied statistical and modeling techniques used to analyze social networks. Each chapter includes exercises to aid students in their analysis of how networks function.This book is an indispensable resource for students and researchers in economics, mathematics, physics, sociology, and business.

    D. Williams wrote this entertaining, witty introduction for the nonscientist, game theory was still a somewhat mysterious subject familiar to very few scientists beyond those researchers, like himself, working for the military. Now, over thirty years after its original publication as a Rand Corporation research study, his light-hearted though thoroughly effective primer is the recognized classic introduction to an increasingly applicable discipline. Used by amateurs, professionals, and students throughout the world in the classroom, on the job, and for personal amusement, the book has been through ten printings, and has been translated into at least five languages (including Russian and Japanese).Revised, updated, and available for the first time in an inexpensive paperback edition, The Compleat Strategyst is a highly entertaining text essential for anyone interested in this provocative and engaging area of modern mathematics. In fully illustrated chapters complete with everyday examples and word problems, Williams offers readers a working understanding of the possible methods for selecting strategies in a variety of situations, simple to complex. With just a basic understanding of arithmetic, anyone can grasp all necessary aspects of two-, three-, four-, and larger strategy games with two or more sets of inimical interests and a limitless array of zero-sum payoffs.As research and study continues not only in this new discipline but in the related areas of statistics, probability and behavioral science, understanding of games, decision making, and the development of strategies will be increasingly important. In the areas of economics, sociology, politics, and the military, game theory is sure to have an even wider impact. For students and amateurs fascinated by game theory's implications there is no better, immediately applicable, or more entertaining introduction to the subject than this engaging text by the late J. D. Williams, Professor of Mathematics at Princeton University and a member of the Research Council of The Rand Corporation.

    A System of Logic is the first major installment of his comprehensive restatement of an empiricist and utilitarian position. It begins the attack on ""intuitionism"" which Mill carried on throughout his life, and makes plain his belief that social planning and political action should rely primarily on scientific knowledge, not on authority, custom, revelation, or prescription.Contents Include: OF NAMES AND PROPOSITIONS Of the Necessity of commencing with an Analysis of Language Of Names Of the Things denoted by Names Of Proposition Of the Import of Propositions Of Propositions merely Verbal Of the nature of Classification and the five Predicables Of Definition OF REASONING Of Inference, or Reasoning in General Of Ratiocination, or Syllogism Of the Functions, and logical Values of Syllogism Of trains of Reasoning and Deductive Sciences Of Demonstration and Necessary truths OF INDUCTION Observations on Induction in General On the Ground of Induction Of the Laws of Nature Of The Law of Universal Causation Of The Composition of Causes Of Observation and Experiment, Four Methods of Experimental Enquiry Miscellaneous Examples Plurality of Causes Of the Deductive Method Explanation of Laws of Nature. Keywords: Knowledge, Theory of Logic Science Methodology

    The work is powerful and has established a passionate following as well as harsh critics.

    The invaluable companion to the new edition of the bestselling How to Measure Anything This companion workbook to the new edition of the insightful and eloquent How to Measure Anything walks readers through sample problems and exercises in which they can master and apply the methods discussed in the book.The book explains practical methods for measuring a variety of intangibles, including approaches to measuring customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, technology ROI, and other problems in business, government, and not-for-profits.Companion to the revision of the bestselling How to Measure AnythingProvides chapter-by-chapter exercises Written by industry leader Douglas Hubbard Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard--creator of Applied Information Economics--How to Measure Anything Workbook illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.

    A software diskette provides an easy-to-use tool for students to derive probabilities for binomial.

    Sipser's candid, crystal-clear style allows students at every level to understand and enjoy this field. His innovative "proof idea" sections explain profound concepts in plain English. The new edition incorporates many improvements students and professors have suggested over the years, and offers updated, classroom-tested problem sets at the end of each chapter.

    KEY TOPICS: A combination of instruction and exercises shows them how to use critical thinking to become active learners rather than passive recipients of information, more fully appreciate the power of the discipline they are studying, to see its connections to other fields and to their day-to-day lives, and to maintain an overview of the field so they can see the parts in terms of the whole . The model of critical thinking (used throughout the book) is in terms of the elements of reasoning, standards, and critical thinking processes. This model is well-suited to thinking through any problem or question. The 4th edition reflects streamlined writing, with changes and substantial edits on virtually every page. MARKET: For Freshman Orientation or Critical Thinking courses as well as a supplementary text for use in any subject-matter at any educational level.