To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    Cases, datasets, and examples allow for a more real-world perspective and explore relevant uses of regression techniques in business today.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.

    The book emphasizes a general introduction to probability theory and provides a detailed discussion of specific designs and analyses that are typically encountered in ecology and environmental science. Appropriate for use as either a stand-alone or supplementary text for upper-division undergraduate or graduate courses in ecological and environmental statistics, ecology, environmental science, environmental studies, or experimental design, the Primer also serves as a resource for environmental professionals who need to use and interpret statistics daily but have little or no formal training in the subject.

    With this book, you'll learn how to load data, assemble and disassemble data objects, navigate R's environment system, write your own functions, and use all of R's programming tools.RStudio Master Instructor Garrett Grolemund not only teaches you how to program, but also shows you how to get more from R than just visualizing and modeling data. You'll gain valuable programming skills and support your work as a data scientist at the same time.Work hands-on with three practical data analysis projects based on casino gamesStore, retrieve, and change data values in your computer's memoryWrite programs and simulations that outperform those written by typical R usersUse R programming tools such as if else statements, for loops, and S3 classesLearn how to write lightning-fast vectorized R codeTake advantage of R's package system and debugging toolsPractice and apply R programming concepts as you learn them

    Introductory Graph Theory presents a nontechnical introduction to this exciting field in a clear, lively, and informative style. Author Gary Chartrand covers the important elementary topics of graph theory and its applications. In addition, he presents a large variety of proofs designed to strengthen mathematical techniques and offers challenging opportunities to have fun with mathematics. Ten major topics — profusely illustrated — include: Mathematical Models, Elementary Concepts of Graph Theory, Transportation Problems, Connection Problems, Party Problems, Digraphs and Mathematical Models, Games and Puzzles, Graphs and Social Psychology, Planar Graphs and Coloring Problems, and Graphs and Other Mathematics. A useful Appendix covers Sets, Relations, Functions, and Proofs, and a section devoted to exercises — with answers, hints, and solutions — is especially valuable to anyone encountering graph theory for the first time. Undergraduate mathematics students at every level, puzzlists, and mathematical hobbyists will find well-organized coverage of the fundamentals of graph theory in this highly readable and thoroughly enjoyable book.

    Dozens of key charts, tables, and graphs, including updated steam tables and two new charts of LMTD heat exchanger correction factors, make it possible to work most exam problems using the Reference Manual alone. A complete, easy-to-use index saves you valuable time during the exam as it helps you quickly locate important information needed to solve problems._____________________________Since 1975 more than 2 million people preparing for their engineering, surveying, architecture, LEED®, interior design, and landscape architecture exams have entrusted their exam prep to PPI. For more information, visit us at www.ppi2pass.com.

    eGrade Plus offers an integrated suite of teaching and learning resources, including an online version of Black's Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, in one easy-to-use Web site. Organized around the essential activities you perform in class, eGrade Plus helps you: Create class presentation using a wealth of Wiley-provided resources. you may easily adapt, customize, and add to his content to meet the needs of your course. Automate the assigning and grading of homework or quizzes by using Wiley-provided question banks, or by writing your won. Student results will be automatically graded and recorded in your gradebook. Track your students' progress. An instructor's gradebook allows you to an analyze individual and overall class results to determine each student's progress and level of understanding. Administer your course. eGrade Plus can easily be integrated with another course management system, gradebook, or other resources you are using in your class. Provide students with problem-solving support. eGrade Plus can link homework problems to the relevant section of the online text, providing context-sensitive help. Best of all, instructors can arrange to have eGrade Plus packaged FREE with new copies of Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, All instructors have to do is adopt the eGrade Plus version of this book and activate their eGrade Plus course.

    … The book the National Security Agency wanted never to be published." –Wired Magazine "…monumental… fascinating… comprehensive… the definitive work on cryptography for computer programmers…" –Dr. Dobb's Journal"…easily ranks as one of the most authoritative in its field." —PC Magazine"…the bible of code hackers." –The Millennium Whole Earth CatalogThis new edition of the cryptography classic provides you with a comprehensive survey of modern cryptography. The book details how programmers and electronic communications professionals can use cryptography—the technique of enciphering and deciphering messages-to maintain the privacy of computer data. It describes dozens of cryptography algorithms, gives practical advice on how to implement them into cryptographic software, and shows how they can be used to solve security problems. Covering the latest developments in practical cryptographic techniques, this new edition shows programmers who design computer applications, networks, and storage systems how they can build security into their software and systems. What's new in the Second Edition? * New information on the Clipper Chip, including ways to defeat the key escrow mechanism * New encryption algorithms, including algorithms from the former Soviet Union and South Africa, and the RC4 stream cipher * The latest protocols for digital signatures, authentication, secure elections, digital cash, and more * More detailed information on key management and cryptographic implementations

    The gold standard for attaining security is cryptography because it provides the most reliable tools for storing or transmitting digital information. Written by Niels Ferguson, lead cryptographer for Counterpane, Bruce Schneier's security company, and Bruce Schneier himself, this is the much anticipated follow-up book to Schneier's seminal encyclopedic reference, Applied Cryptography, Second Edition (0-471-11709-9), which has sold more than 150,000 copies. Niels Ferguson (Amsterdam, Netherlands) is a cryptographic engineer and consultant at Counterpane Internet Security. He has extensive experience in the creation and design of security algorithms, protocols, and multinational security infrastructures. Previously, Ferguson was a cryptographer for DigiCash and CWI. At CWI he developed the first generation of off-line payment protocols. He has published numerous scientific papers. Bruce Schneier (Minneapolis, MN) is Founder and Chief Technical Officer at Counterpane Internet Security, a managed-security monitoring company. He is also the author of Secrets and Lies: Digital Security in a Networked World (0-471-25311-1).

    CONGRATULATIONS TO HERBERT KROEMER, 2000 NOBEL LAUREATE FOR PHYSICS For upper-division courses in thermodynamics or statistical mechanics, Kittel and Kroemer offers a modern approach to thermal physics that is based on the idea that all physical systems can be described in terms of their discrete quantum states, rather than drawing on 19th-century classical mechanics concepts.

    It proceeds from familiar concepts to the unfamiliar, from the concrete to the abstract. Readers consistently praise this outstanding text for its expository style and clarity of presentation. The applications version features a wide variety of interesting, contemporary applications. Clear, accessible, step-by-step explanations make the material crystal clear. Established the intricate thread of relationships between systems of equations, matrices, determinants, vectors, linear transformations and eigenvalues.

    It has been widely praised by a generation of users for its solid and effective pedagogy that addresses the needs of a broad range of teaching and learning styles and environments. Each title is just one component in a comprehensive calculus course program that carefully integrates and coordinates print, media, and technology products for successful teaching and learning.

    It can be freely downloaded and it works on multiple computer platforms. This book provides an elementary introduction to R. In each chapter, brief introductory sections are followed by code examples and comments from the computational and statistical viewpoint. A supplementary R package containing the datasets can be downloaded from the web.