In Investing In One Lesson, investment guru Mark Skousen clearly and convincingly reveals the reasons for the seemingly perverse, unpredictable nature of the stock market. Drawing upon his decades of experience as an investment advisor, writer, and professor, Dr. Skousen explains in one spirited, easy-to-follow lesson why stock prices fluctuate with such apparent irrationality. Lifting back the veil of perplexity and confusion that surrounds the workings of the stock market, Dr. Skousen explains:*Why good news for the economy is often bad news for the stock market*Why stocks of old, established companies in shrinking industries tend to be a better investment than shares in rapidly growing firms in cutting-edge fields*Why stock prices can suddenly skyrocket or collapse--regardless of market fundamentals*Why initial public offerings often enrich insiders at the expense of the majority of investors*How Wall Street is like a giant casino--and how it isn'tThe perfect investment primer, Investing In One Lesson provides an introduction to everything from day trading to contrary investing to chart-based techniques. Dr. Skousen's book concludes with a comprehensive but simple investment strategy to maximize your returns without having to dedicate countless hours to researching the market. Dr. Skousen packs his book with entertaining personal and professional anecdotes illustrating his central point--that the business of investing is not the same as investing in a business. He offers investors a wide-ranging but accessible course on investing history, psychology, and strategy--all in one lesson.

    

    This overview has enabled students to make sense more easily of what instructors are doing when they produce proofs, theorems and formulas.

    On this journey you'll discover how this staggering new technology has the potential to enable an ultra-libertarian society beyond government control.Murder for hire. Drug trafficking. Embezzlement. Money laundering. These might sound like plot lines of a thriller, but they are true stories from the short history of cryptocurrencies - digital currencies conceived by computer hackers and cryptographers that represent a completely new sort of financial transaction that could soon become mainstream. The most famous - or infamous - cryptocurrency is bitcoin. But look beyond its tarnished reputation and something much shinier emerges. The technology that underlies bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies - the blockchain - is hailed as the greatest advancement since the invention of the internet. It is now moving away from being the backbone for a digital currency and making inroads into other core concepts of society: identity, ownership and even the rule of law. The End of Money is your essential introduction to this transformative new technology that has governments, entrepreneurs and forward-thinking people from all walks of life sitting up and taking notice. ABOUT THE SERIESNew Scientist Instant Expert books are definitive and accessible entry points to the most important subjects in science; subjects that challenge, attract debate, invite controversy and engage the most enquiring minds. Designed for curious readers who want to know how things work and why, the Instant Expert series explores the topics that really matter and their impact on individuals, society, and the planet, translating the scientific complexities around us into language that's open to everyone, and putting new ideas and discoveries into perspective and context.

    Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.

    Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations.Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how--even from the oil industry's first years--wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions--first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC--succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations--including mistakes to avoid--as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    When hearing those words just a couple of years back, people used to say: It’s a scam, financial bubble IThere is no point in investing, the price is too low INo country will ever recognize cryptocurrency IIt’s an obvious pyramid scheme IIt’s a sort of amusement for nerds IIt's not serious, it will collapse in a couple of years. Until recently, cryptocurrency had been viewed as a sort of amusement for a handful of the chosen who bought and sold something and believed that a new currency would make a hit one day! You surely were also among those people who did not take Bitcoin and cryptocurrency seriously, but the current events gag even the biggest skeptics. Current Bitcoin price is 6,644$* The price of the most popular cryptocurrency repeatedly breaks all the unthinkable records. Capitalization is about $120 billion World recognition The world's largest economies – India and Japan – recognized Bitcoin as the official currency. The US authorities recognized cryptocurrency as the asset. And this is just the beginning. Mining on an industrial scale The cryptocurrency market is extremely fast-changing, and it is almost impossible to monitor the situation and make the right decisions on your own. Most people have no proper experience, time and money for that. My book gives basic yet quite extensive information for those people who do not chase a rainbow but want to build a long-term profitable business in one of the cryptocurrency areas: from mining to investing. So, this book is not about: Illegal ways of making money Praising cryptocurrency and urging you to invest in it to the last penny Fraud techniques and making a fast buck Boring and pointless theory Ways to earn millions without investments and risks This book will help you get to learn the following: Which way of making money in cryptocurrency market suits you best. Where should you start if you have just $500. What information about cryptocurrency the experts withhold (Take the rose-colored glasses off!). How to elaborate a personal strategy, set up your own cryptocurrency business and earn your first $3,000-10,000 as early as 2018. I can also guarantee that you: Puzzle out the main present-day currency trend even if you are clueless about economics, finance and technology. Understand whether you really want to invest in cryptocurrency (perhaps, this type of business doesn’t suit you at all and you will save your time) Get to learn how to check the risks and not to invest in the first available currency Having considered my experience, protect yourself from possible failures and pouring money down the drain which will inevitably happen if you go it blind.

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    The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    “You’re none of those things. Don’t let them control your mind and your actions.” “But if I’m not any of those things, then what am I?” “You are the witness. If you change your perspective and see these emotions for what they are, you are not them; you are human consciousness witnessing what comes into focus. You can let them take over or you can control your mind and your will. You let external elements influence your actions, or you take control of your emotions and can make decisions that take you where you want to go in life. It’s a choice and only you can make it.” New Trader sat quietly. That was deep. Join New Trader in the next installment of his trading journey. He's come a long way, but he still has much to learn from his mentor, Rich Trader. Learn more about entries and exits, trend following essentials, and risk management and psychology. Praise for the first edition of New Trader Rich Trader 2: As in all of Steve’s books, I am consistently amazed at how, despite his obvious mastery of our business, he can recall with intimate detail what it was like to make the full gamut of “New Trader” mistakes. “New Trader, Rich Trader 2” will have New Traders reaching for their highlighters, while Rich Traders smile knowingly at distant memories of painful missteps. Wherever you are in the journey from New to Rich Trader, this book is an indispensable tool filled with lots of “Aha” moments.  To Steve, congratulations on a job well done, and to all the New Traders reading this, pat yourself on the back for having found an indispensable aid in your journey from novice to pro. Richard L. Weissman, Professional Trader and Author of Trade Like a Casino

    It has also often required oppressive and incomprehensible mathematics. Game Theory at Work steers around math and pedagogy to make this innovative tool accessible to a larger audience and allow all levels of business to use it to both improve decision-making skills and eliminate potentially lethal uncertainty.This proven tool requires everyone in an organization to look at the competition, guage his or her own responses to their actions, and then establish an appropriate strategy. Game Theory at Work will help business leaders at all levels improve their overall performance in:NegotiatingDecision makingEstablishing strategic alliancesMarketingPositioningBrandingPricing

    

    Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants — or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.   In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony show how noise contributes significantly to errors in all fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behavior, food safety, bail, security checks at airports, strategy, and personnel selection. And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike are commonly oblivious to the role of chance in their judgments and in their actions.   Drawing on the latest findings in psychology and behavioral economics, and the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment — and what we can do about it.