He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    No, hang on, let's make this interesting. Between zero and infinity. Even if you stick to the whole numbers, there are a lot to choose from - an infinite number in fact. Throw in decimal fractions and infinity suddenly gets an awful lot bigger (is that even possible?) And then there are the negative numbers, the imaginary numbers, the irrational numbers like pi which never end. It literally never ends.The world of numbers is indeed strange and beautiful. Among its inhabitants are some really notable characters - pi, e, the "imaginary" number i and the famous golden ratio to name just a few. Prime numbers occupy a special status. Zero is very odd indeed: is it a number, or isn't it?How Numbers Work takes a tour of this mind-blowing but beautiful realm of numbers and the mathematical rules that connect them. Not only that, but take a crash course on the biggest unsolved problems that keep mathematicians up at night, find out about the strange and unexpected ways mathematics influences our everyday lives, and discover the incredible connection between numbers and reality itself. ABOUT THE SERIESNew Scientist Instant Expert books are definitive and accessible entry points to the most important subjects in science; subjects that challenge, attract debate, invite controversy and engage the most enquiring minds. Designed for curious readers who want to know how things work and why, the Instant Expert series explores the topics that really matter and their impact on individuals, society, and the planet, translating the scientific complexities around us into language that's open to everyone, and putting new ideas and discoveries into perspective and context.

    Emphasis is placed on understanding the crisp mathematical idea behind each algorithm, in a manner that is intuitive and rigorous without being unduly formal. Features include: The use of boxes to strengthen the narrative: pieces that provide historical context, descriptions of how the algorithms are used in practice, and excursions for the mathematically sophisticated.Carefully chosen advanced topics that can be skipped in a standard one-semester course, but can be covered in an advanced algorithms course or in a more leisurely two-semester sequence.An accessible treatment of linear programming introduces students to one of the greatest achievements in algorithms. An optional chapter on the quantum algorithm for factoring provides a unique peephole into this exciting topic. In addition to the text, DasGupta also offers a Solutions Manual, which is available on the Online Learning Center.Algorithms is an outstanding undergraduate text, equally informed by the historical roots and contemporary applications of its subject. Like a captivating novel, it is a joy to read. Tim Roughgarden Stanford University

    The clarity and eloquence of the presentation make it popular with teachers and students alike. The text aims to expand the reader's view of the field and to present standard material in a novel way. All of the most important topics in the field are covered with a fresh perspective, including iterative methods for systems of equations and eigenvalue problems and the underlying principles of conditioning and stability. Presentation is in the form of 40 lectures, which each focus on one or two central ideas. The unity between topics is emphasized throughout, with no risk of getting lost in details and technicalities. The book breaks with tradition by beginning with the QR factorization - an important and fresh idea for students, and the thread that connects most of the algorithms of numerical linear algebra.

    This text introduces the basic mathematical and computational methods of theoretical neuroscience and presents applications in a variety of areas including vision, sensory-motor integration, development, learning, and memory.The book is divided into three parts. Part I discusses the relationship between sensory stimuli and neural responses, focusing on the representation of information by the spiking activity of neurons. Part II discusses the modeling of neurons and neural circuits on the basis of cellular and synaptic biophysics. Part III analyzes the role of plasticity in development and learning. An appendix covers the mathematical methods used, and exercises are available on the book's Web site.

    Each chapter includes many illustrative examples to assist the reader. The book emphasizes methods for finding solutions to differential equations. It provides many abundant exercises, applications, and solved examples with careful attention given to readability. Elementary Differential Equations includes a thorough treatment of power series techniques. In addition, the book presents a classical treatment of several physical problems to show how Fourier series become involved in the solution of those problems. The eighth edition of Elementary Differential Equations has been revised to include a new supplement in many chapters that provides suggestions and exercises for using a computer to assist in the understanding of the material in the chapter. It also now provides an introduction to the phase plane and to different types of phase portraits. A valuable reference book for readers interested in exploring the technological and other applications of differential equations.

    The author's goal from the beginning has been to write a book that is accessible to undergraduate and consistently teachable. The emphasis in the book has always been on physics rather than formal mathematics. With each new edition, the author has attempted to add important new developments in the field without sacrificing the book's accessibility and teachability.

    The book teaches a range of design and analysis techniques for problems that arise in computing applications. The text encourages an understanding of the algorithm design process and an appreciation of the role of algorithms in the broader field of computer science.

    Subsequent sections deal with integrating factors; dilution and accretion problems; linearization of first order systems; Laplace Transforms; Newton's Interpolation Formulas, more.

    However, the techniques that you shall find in this book have been tested and used (not only by the author but by countless other people) in examinations time and again.Many techniques mentioned in other books are pretty impractical and sometimes completely unusable. This book is not a package of magic. It is rather a package of methods that if practiced and persevered with can churn up magical results! This book could be a great resource for various competitive examinations and students in middle and senior school. It could help the reader in myriad ways depending upon his or her needs and scope for practice. At the same time one could figure out as to which technique would work for one and which would not, again depending upon one’s set of circumstances and needs. By reading this book, the students will be able to:(a) learn quicker methods by observing some simple techniques;compare various techniques available on each topic;(b) know the limitations of each technique;(c) save some precious minutes in various competitive and school examinations by employing the quick calculation techniques;(d) develop their own tools in the field of quick calculations.

    Containing information necessary for teachers to teach math through problem solving, this resource is filled with engaging activities from every strand of mathematics.

    The R language is recognised as one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages, and it enables the user to apply many statistical techniques that would be impossible without such software to help implement such large data sets.

    The content of this book has been used successfully with students whose mathematics background consists of calculus and calculus-based probability. The text gives both precise statements of results, plausibility arguments, and even some proofs, but more importantly intuitive explanations developed and refine through classroom experience with this material are provided. The book includes a self-contained treatment of the probability theory needed for shastic calculus, including Brownian motion and its properties. Advanced topics include foreign exchange models, forward measures, and jump-diffusion processes.This book is being published in two volumes. This second volume develops shastic calculus, martingales, risk-neutral pricing, exotic options and term structure models, all in continuous time.Masters level students and researchers in mathematical finance and financial engineering will find this book useful.Steven E. Shreve is Co-Founder of the Carnegie Mellon MS Program in Computational Finance and winner of the Carnegie Mellon Doherty Prize for sustained contributions to education.

    Beginning millions of years ago with ancient “ant odometers” and moving through time to our modern-day quest for new dimensions, it covers 250 milestones in mathematical history. Among the numerous delights readers will learn about as they dip into this inviting anthology: cicada-generated prime numbers, magic squares from centuries ago, the discovery of pi and calculus, and the butterfly effect. Each topic gets a lavishly illustrated spread with stunning color art, along with formulas and concepts, fascinating facts about scientists’ lives, and real-world applications of the theorems.

    Each chapter contains integrated worked examples and chapter tests. This edition has the ancillary ATLAST computer exercise guide and new MATLAB and Maple guides.