Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Macroeconomics1. Maximizing UtilityDecreasing Marginal Utility | Opportunity Costs2. Evaluating Production PossibilitiesProduction Possibilities Frontiers | Absolute and Comparative Advantage3. DemandDeterminants of Demand | Elasticity of Demand | Change in Demand vs. Change in Quantity Demanded4. SupplyDeterminants of Supply | Elasticity of Supply | Change in Supply vs. Change in Quantity Supplied5. Market EquilibriumHow Market Equilibrium is Reached | The Effect of Changes in Supply and Demand6. Government InterventionPrice Ceilings and Price Floors | Taxes and Subsidies7. Costs of ProductionMarginal Cost of Production | Fixed vs. Variable Costs | Short Run vs. Long Run | Sunk Costs | Economic Costs vs. Accounting Costs8. Perfect CompetitionFirms Are Price Takers | Making Decisions at the Margin | Consumer and Producer Surplus9. MonopolyMarket Power | Deadweight Loss with a Monopoly | Monopolies and Government10. OligopolyCollusion | Cheating the Cartel | Government Intervention in Oligopolies11. Monopolistic CompetitionCompeting via Product Differentiation | Loss of Surplus with Monopolistic CompetitionConclusion: The Insights and Limitations of Economics

    Changes in the fifth edition include: A new chapter on credit derivatives (Chapter 21). New! Business Snapshots highlight real-world situations and relevant issues. The first six chapters have been -reorganized to better meet the needs of students and .instructors. A new release of the Excel-based software, DerivaGem, is included with each text. A useful Solutions Manual/Study Guide, which includes the worked-out answers to the "Questions and Problems" sections of each chapter, can be purchased separately (ISBN: 0-13-144570-7).

    One of the best young portfolio managers on Wall Street, and helping to run the hedge fund operation of one of the world's most prestigious firms, Keith McCullough finds himself a lone voice of reason as the economic crisis of 2008 looms large. Shown the door, his life takes a fascinating turn into the world of independent research and no-holds-barred criticism.Reveals the unvarnished truth of how Wall Street and hedge funds really operate Deftly details how to analyze the markets expertly and avoid group think using technical and fundamental measures Each topic is thoroughly discussed and followed up with lessons you can take away and put to use Written with the authority of someone who knows how Wall Street and hedge funds work, yet accessible to even a casual follower of finance, Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager mixes a constructive critique of the investment industry with fundamental lessons that any investor will find valuable.

    But it doesn’t have to be! Personal Finance 101 will provide you with all the skills you need to make good financial decisions and grow your personal wealth. Full of must-have advice and organized in an easy-to-read format, this book provides a wealth of knowledge on personal finance basics including: -Choosing your bank (and why it matters) -Building an emergency fund -Salary and benefit packages -Where your money is going (and how to keep more of it) -Refinancing or consolidating student loans -Health and property insurance -Building credit responsibly -How to get a mortgage Use this guide and make the most of the money you have, plan for future purchases like a house or a vacation, save for retirement, or simply become more financially responsible. Perfect for finance beginners or those looking to refresh their knowledge, Personal Finance 101 is the one-stop shop for all of your personal finance questions!

    By way of background, a family office is a company, or group of people, who manage the wealth a family has gained over generations. The term 'family office' has an element of cachet, and even mystique, because it is usually associated with the mega-wealthy. However, practically speaking, virtually any family that manages its investments—independent of the size of the investment pool—could be considered a family office. The difference is mainly semantic. DIY Financial Advisor outlines a step-by-step process through which investors can take control of their hard-earned wealth and manage their own family office. Our research indicates that what matters in investing are minimizing psychology traps and managing fees and taxes. These simple concepts apply to all families, not just the ultra-wealthy. But can—or should—we be managing our own wealth? Our natural inclination is to succumb to the challenge of portfolio management and let an 'expert' deal with the problem. For a variety of reasons we discuss in this book, we should resist the gut reaction to hire experts. We suggest that investors maintain direct control, or at least a thorough understanding, of how their hard-earned wealth is managed. Our book is meant to be an educational journey that slowly builds confidence in one's own ability to manage a portfolio. We end our book with a potential solution that could be applicable to a wide-variety of investors, from the ultra-high net worth to middle class individuals, all of whom are focused on similar goals of preserving and growing their capital over time. DIY Financial Advisor is a unique resource. This book is the only comprehensive guide to implementing simple quantitative models that can beat the experts. And it comes at the perfect time, as the investment industry is undergoing a significant shift due in part to the use of automated investment strategies that do not require a financial advisor's involvement. DIY Financial Advisor is an essential text that guides you in making your money work for you—not for someone else!

    Learn how to accelerate your financial independence:What you must know to retire soonerThe single most important factor for monitoring and achieving financial independenceThe potential retirement lifestyles, and how much they will cost youSecrets to controlling inflation in your lifestyleThe essential money tools for achieving financial independenceA quick introduction to safe, simple passive index investingHow soon you could actually retire: the critical relation between savings rate and working yearsA gold mine of proven tips for cutting expenses and spending lessThe 4 proven strategies for boosting income and building wealth

    Written by an investor with a long and remarkable track record, it shares for the first time the ins and outs of finding high-potential undervalued stocks before anyone else.Deep value investing means finding companies that are genuine bargains that can pay back phenomenally over the long term. They are firms so cheap that even if they were to close tomorrow their assets would pay you out at a profit. But if they can turn things around, the rewards will be many times greater ...These were the favourite shares of Benjamin Graham, author of 'The Intelligent Investor'. Inspired by Graham's classic and with a long history of discovering these great value stocks - sometimes known as 'bargain issues' or 'netnets' - author and investor Jeroen Bos reveals:- how to use only publicly available information to discover these shares and filter the gold from the dross- everything he did when analysing, purchasing, monitoring and selling more than ten recent successful deep value investments- the complete philosophy behind deep value investing, and the ins and outs of this strategy in practice- what can go wrong and how to minimise the chances of it happening to you.Deep value investing has a better track record than almost any other approach to the market. Even better, it doesn't require minute and technical knowledge of a company, nor is it fixated on earnings or often-unreliable future projections.It's all about the balance sheet and patience. This makes it the perfect investing approach for those who want to see phenomenal stock market returns without wasting time or commission costs.

    In Maonomics: Why Chinese Communists Make Better Capitalists than We Do, Napoleoni argues just the opposite: what we are witnessing instead is the beginning of the collapse of capitalism and the victory of "communism with a profit motive." Maonomics charts the prodigious ascent of the Chinese economic miracle and the parallel course of the West’s ongoing insistence on misconstruing China and its economy even as we acknowledge its growing influence and importance. Maonomics is a warning call whereby Western governments can avoid economic collapse by learning how to understand more clearly what the lessons of the Chinese economy really are. Based on first-hand reporting from China during frequent visits in the last several years, Maonomics lends credence to the Chinese view and translates it for Western readers. For example, the Chinese too are attached to their vision of democracy, but it is different from ours. It isn’t focused as much on voting as it is economic opportunity and the fair distribution of wealth and prosperity. Napoleoni also separates failed Leninist political ideology from true Marxist theory, showing that Marx’s writings do not reject profit so long as it is used to benefit the people. Marx’s dictatorship of the proletariat is being realized in China, she argues, where giant steps forward are being made in the name of progress and the wellbeing and prosperity of the Chinese people. Looking at the Chinese economy up close, any economist would be hard pressed to say that they are not on the right track. Here Loretta Napoleoni offers a front row seat on the greatest show on earth: the peaceful economic revolution that is shifting the balance of power in the world from West to East.

    Though no large financial institution has recently gone bust in this country, white-collar criminals, scam artists, Ponzi schemers and organized crime, from the Hells Angels to the Russian mafia, know that Canada is the place in the Western world to rip off investors. And the fraudsters do so with little fear of being caught and punished. Thieves of Bay Street investigates Canada's biggest financial scandals of recent years. Readers will learn what banks do with investors' money and what happens when they lose it. They will meet the bogus investment gurus, the brokers who lose money with both reckless abandon and impunity, the bankers who squander money in toxic investments, the lawyers who protect them and the regulators who do nothing to keep them from doing it again. And most importantly, they'll meet the victims who are demanding that our vaunted banking sector finally come clean on its dirtiest secret.

    In it, you'll learn how Pat: went from being a raging workaholic to taking 153 days off each year raised his average sales price from $92,000 to over $450,000 in four simple steps went from $13,000 in yearly commissions to over $5 million yearly went from zero foreclosure listings to over 325 in twenty-four months got his team revved up by humiliating himself on YouTube landed more customers by dressing up as Dracula turned the worst market in decades into profit in new areas learned some of his best tactics through authorized stealing from his competitors Including a 7-Figure Game Plan at the end of each chapter and an appendix of helpful forms and worksheets, 6 Steps to 7 Figures contains all the tactics that the best real estate agents use to build and promote their businesses--and live the life of their dreams.

    Used correctly, it is better described as a personal bank on steroids, and a financial bunker for tough times. To be clear, this book is not about the typical garbage peddled by most insurance agents. Rather, an alternative to the risky investment strategies taught by Wall Street.It details a highly efficient form of cash value life insurance designed to supercharge your savings and stockpile wealth. A product so powerful it’s responsible for the success of Walt Disney, JC Penney, Ray Kroc, and thousands of others. Here's what you'll discover:•How the wealthy use this vehicle to create more wealth, take less risk, and create predictable income down the road•Why banks and corporations place billions of dollars in this powerful vehicle•How I earned over 300 percent returns leveraging my life insurance policies•How you can create a safe, predictable foundation to enhance every financial decision you make•How to win with taxes and keep more of the money you makeWhile the information compiled into this book is valuable, you'll also find three case studies that show you exactly how it works. You'll be able to visually see how it grows, how it's accessed, as well as the future income that can be taken.______________Influencers of this book are Nelson Nash, his book "Becoming Your Own Banker: Unlock the Infinite Banking Concept"; Pamela Yellen, her book "Bank on Yourself"; Dwayne Burnell, his book "Financial Independence in the 21st Century - Life Insurance * Utilize the Infinite Banking Concept * Compliment Your 401K - Retirement Planning With Permanent Whole Life versus Term or Universal - Create Financial Peace"; and my Father Dan Thompson, and his book "The Banking Effect: Acquiring wealth through your own Private Banking System."I was introduced to these financial strategies at a young age, and this is book represents the effort and energy on both the part of everyone of my mentors, these authors here, as well as my own diligence in learning about and implementing these very same strategies into my personal finances.This book is designed to simplify some of the concepts surrounding cash value life insurance, such as Infinite Banking and Bank on Yourself, and make them easier to understand, stripping them down to the core benefits of cash value life insurance.

    Treats both approaches in depth, with forecasting examined in conjunction with practical trading considerations.

    Through it, you will experience more color and texture in the treatment of this important subject, and you will deepen your feel for the life-changing concepts and techniques.If you are serious about attracting a lot more money into your life, this book should be on your bookshelf right alongside How to Attract Money Using Mind Power. And although this is indeed a companion book, you can benefit greatly from reading it even if you haven’t read the original work. All on its own, this book will give you sufficient knowledge to totally transform your financial circumstances and attract all the money you can handle. Table of Contents: 1. Desire2. Belief3. Expectancy4. Money Mindset5. Money Goals6. Think End Results7. Think and Feel As If8. Speak As If9. Act As If10. Affirmations11. Visualization12. Environment13. Organization14. Laws of Money15. Intuition16. Plans17. Right Livelihood18. Self-Image19. Personal Energy20. Radiate Financial IncreaseAttracting more money, manifesting wealth, creating a life of prosperity, abundance, and affluence—these are things anyone can accomplish, but relatively few do. The difference between the haves and the have nots? It’s a mental difference. It all starts in the mind, with the power of thought. This book will teach you how to think in a way that will propel you down your road to success, achievement, and financial freedom.

    Throughout the writing process of this edition, the authors worked closely with a developmental editor to help ensure the text is student-friendly and even more responsive to the variety of learning styles. The text is enriched with real-world examples and illustrations from a variety of business environments. Futhermore, the text's new, four-color design allows instructors a high degree of flexibility and emphasis.