The (Mis)Behavior of Markets


Benoît B. Mandelbrot - 1997
    Mandelbrot, one of the century's most influential mathematicians, is world-famous for making mathematical sense of a fact everybody knows but that geometers from Euclid on down had never assimilated: Clouds are not round, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not smooth. To these classic lines we can now add another example: Markets are not the safe bet your broker may claim. In his first book for a general audience, Mandelbrot, with co-author Richard L. Hudson, shows how the dominant way of thinking about the behavior of markets-a set of mathematical assumptions a century old and still learned by every MBA and financier in the world-simply does not work. As he did for the physical world in his classic The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandelbrot here uses fractal geometry to propose a new, more accurate way of describing market behavior. The complex gyrations of IBM's stock price and the dollar-euro exchange rate can now be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a far better model of how risky they are. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has gotten to the bottom of how financial markets really work, and in doing so, he describes the volatile, dangerous (and strangely beautiful) properties that financial experts have never before accounted for. The result is no less than the foundation for a new science of finance.

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life


Alice Schroeder - 2008
    The legendary Omaha investor has never written a memoir, but now he has allowed one writer, Alice Schroeder, unprecedented access to explore directly with him and with those closest to him his work, opinions, struggles, triumphs, follies, and wisdom. The result is the personally revealing and complete biography of the man known everywhere as “The Oracle of Omaha.”Although the media track him constantly, Buffett himself has never told his full life story. His reality is private, especially by celebrity standards. Indeed, while the homespun persona that the public sees is true as far as it goes, it goes only so far. Warren Buffett is an array of paradoxes. He set out to prove that nice guys can finish first. Over the years he treated his investors as partners, acted as their steward, and championed honesty as an investor, CEO, board member, essayist, and speaker. At the same time he became the world’s richest man, all from the modest Omaha headquarters of his company Berkshire Hathaway. None of this fits the term “simple.”When Alice Schroeder met Warren Buffett she was an insurance industry analyst and a gifted writer known for her keen perception and business acumen. Her writings on finance impressed him, and as she came to know him she realized that while much had been written on the subject of his investing style, no one had moved beyond that to explore his larger philosophy, which is bound up in a complex personality and the details of his life. Out of this came his decision to cooperate with her on the book about himself that he would never write.Never before has Buffett spent countless hours responding to a writer’s questions, talking, giving complete access to his wife, children, friends, and business associates—opening his files, recalling his childhood. It was an act of courage, as The Snowball makes immensely clear. Being human, his own life, like most lives, has been a mix of strengths and frailties. Yet notable though his wealth may be, Buffett’s legacy will not be his ranking on the scorecard of wealth; it will be his principles and ideas that have enriched people’s lives. This book tells you why Warren Buffett is the most fascinating American success story of our time.

The Myth of the Rational Market: Wall Street's Impossible Quest for Predictable Markets


Justin Fox - 2008
    The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today. It's a tale that features professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a tale of Wall Street's evolution, the power of the market to generate wealth and wreak havoc, and free market capitalism's war with itself.The efficient market hypothesis--long part of academic folklore but codified in the 1960s at the University of Chicago--has evolved into a powerful myth. It has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds and vast new derivatives markets, and the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, and that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all acting on information to outsmart one another, always provide the best judge of a stock's value. That myth is crumbling.Celebrated journalist and columnist Fox introduces a new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Many of them now agree with Yale professor Robert Shiller that the efficient markets theory "represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought." Today the theory has given way to counterintuitive hypotheses about human behavior, psychological models of decision making, and the irrationality of the markets. Investors overreact, underreact, and make irrational decisions based on imperfect data. In his landmark treatment of the history of the world's markets, Fox uncovers the new ideas that may come to drive the market in the century ahead.

Getting Started in Options


Michael C. Thomsett - 1989
    The accessible, step-by-step format of this guide includes the latest examples, charts, and additions to reflect the changing markets. It also includes new and updated discussions on other options issues, such as Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) and the intricacies of options taxation, as well as understandable instructions about how to master options terminology and concepts, read the market, utilize new online resources, and more. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this straightforward resource shows readers how options work as well as where they can fit into anyone's personal investment plan.

The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success


William N. Thorndike Jr. - 2012
    Others might point to the qualities of today’s so-called celebrity CEOs—charisma, virtuoso communication skills, and a confident management style. But what really matters when you run an organization? What is the hallmark of exceptional CEO performance? Quite simply, it is the returns for the shareholders of that company over the long term.In this refreshing, counterintuitive book, author Will Thorndike brings to bear the analytical wisdom of a successful career in investing, closely evaluating the performance of companies and their leaders. You will meet eight individualistic CEOs whose firms’ average returns outperformed the S&P 500 by a factor of twenty—in other words, an investment of $10,000 with each of these CEOs, on average, would have been worth over $1.5 million twenty-five years later. You may not know all their names, but you will recognize their companies: General Cinema, Ralston Purina, The Washington Post Company, Berkshire Hathaway, General Dynamics, Capital Cities Broadcasting, TCI, and Teledyne. In The Outsiders, you’ll learn the traits and methods—striking for their consistency and relentless rationality—that helped these unique leaders achieve such exceptional performance.Humble, unassuming, and often frugal, these "outsiders” shunned Wall Street and the press, and shied away from the hottest new management trends. Instead, they shared specific traits that put them and the companies they led on winning trajectories: a laser-sharp focus on per share value as opposed to earnings or sales growth; an exceptional talent for allocating capital and human resources; and the belief that cash flow, not reported earnings, determines a company’s long-term value.Drawing on years of research and experience, Thorndike tells eye-opening stories, extracting lessons and revealing a compelling alternative model for anyone interested in leading a company or investing in one—and reaping extraordinary returns.

A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises


Ray Dalio - 2018
    This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.  As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.  The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market


John Heins - 2013
    What market inefficiencies will I try to exploit? How will I generate ideas? What will be my geographic focus? What analytical edge will I hope to have? What valuation methodologies will I use? What time horizon will I typically employ? How many stocks will I own? How specifically will I decide to buy or sell? Will I hedge, and how? How will I keep my emotions from getting the best of me?Authors Tilson and Heins have delegated the task of providing answers to such questions to the experts: the market-beating money managers to whom they’ve had unparalleled access as the co-founders of leading investment newsletter Value Investor Insight. That includes such hedgefund superstars as Julian Robertson, Seth Klarman, Leon Cooperman, David Einhorn, Bill Ackman and Joel Greenblatt, as well as mutual-fund luminaries including Marty Whitman, Mason Hawkins, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Bill Nygren and Bruce Berkowitz.Who should read The Art of Value Investing? It is as vital a resource for the just-starting-out investor as for the sophisticated professional one. The former will find a comprehensive guidebook for defining a sound investment strategy from A-to-Z; the latter will find all aspects of his or her existing strategy challenged or reconfirmed by the provocative thinking of their most-successful peers. It also is a must-read for any investor – institutional or individual – charged with choosing the best managers for the money they are allocating to equities. Choosing the right managers requires knowing all the right questions to ask as well as the answers worthy of respect and attention – both of which are delivered in The Art of Value Investing.

All About Asset Allocation


Richard A. Ferri - 2005
    If you're serious about investing for the long run, you have to take a no-nonsense, businesslike approach to your portfolio. In addition to covering all the basics, this new edition of "All About Asset Allocation" includes timely advice on: Learning which investments work well together and why Selecting the right mutual funds and ETFs Creating an asset allocation that's right for your needs Knowing how and when to change an allocation Understanding target-date mutual funds"All About Asset Allocation offers advice that is both prudent and practical--keep it simple, diversify, and, above all, keep your expenses low--from an author who both knows how vital asset allocation is to investment success and, most important, works with real people." -- John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO, The Vanguard Group"With All About Asset Allocation at your side, you'll be executing a sound investment plan, using the best materials and wearing the best safety rope that money can buy." -- William Bernstein, founder, EfficientFrontier.com, and author, The Intelligent Asset Allocator

Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management


Alexander Elder - 1993
    Trading for a Living helps you master all of those three areas: * How to become a cool, calm, and collected trader * How to profit from reading the behavior of the market crowd * How to use a computer to find good trades * How to develop a powerful trading system * How to find the trades with the best odds of success * How to find entry and exit points, set stops, and take profits Trading for a Living helps you discipline your Mind, shows you the Methods for trading the markets, and shows you how to manage Money in your trading accounts so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game. To help you profit even more from the ideas in Trading for a Living, look for the companion volume--Study Guide for Trading for a Living. It asks over 200 multiple-choice questions, with answers and 11 rating scales for sharpening your trading skills. For example: Question Markets rise when * there are more buyers than sellers * buyers are more aggressive than sellers * sellers are afraid and demand a premium * more shares or contracts are bought than sold* I and II * II and III * II and IV * III and IV Answer B. II and III. Every change in price reflects what happens in the battle between bulls and bears. Markets rise when bulls feel more strongly than bears. They rally when buyers are confident and sellers demand a premium for participating in the game that is going against them. There is a buyer and a seller behind every transaction. The number of stocks or futures bought and sold is equal by definition.

Invest Like a Guru: How to Generate Higher Returns At Reduced Risk With Value Investing


Charlie Tian - 2017
    Written by the man behind GuruFocus.com, this book expands on the site's value strategies and research tools to provide a primer for those exploring pathways to higher returns at lower risk. The book begins with an insightful explanation of high-quality-focused value investing concepts, then quickly moves into practical, detailed guidance on analysis, valuation, key factors, and risks to avoid. Case studies demonstrate real-world application of various analysis methods, and the discussion walks you through important calculations using real examples. Author Charlie Tian draws upon his own experiences and lessons learned to provide true insight on high-quality-focused value investing as a strategy, providing both reference and expert advice in this singularly useful guide. Warren Buffett once said, "I would rather buy good companies at fair prices than buy fair companies at good prices." That's how he built his fortune, and his method is what we now call high-quality-focused value investing. This book shows you how to determine what constitutes "good companies" and "fair prices," with practical tools for real-world application. Learn the principles and concepts of high-quality-focused value investing Understand the analysis process and valuation of prospective investments Avoid the value traps that can trigger permanent losses Study clear examples of key ratios and calculations  We can't all become the next Warren Buffett, but we can boost returns while reducing risk using the right investment strategy. High-quality-focused value investing provides a path to profit, and Invest Like a Guru is the one-of-a-kind guidebook for getting on track.

The Art of Short Selling


Kathryn F. Staley - 1996
    Her approach to telling the truestories of famous investment 'scams' will keep the readerspellbound, while teaching the investor many cruciallessons.--David W. Tice, Portfolio Manager, Prudent BearFundSelling short is still a misunderstood discipline, but even themost raging bull needs to know this valuable technique to masterthe ever-changing markets.--Jim Rogers, author, InvestmentBikerOn the investment playing field, there is perhaps no game moreexciting than short selling. With the right moves, it can yieldhigh returns; one misstep, however, can have disastrousconsequences. Despite the risk, a growing number of players areanteing up, sparked in part by success stories such as that ofGeorge Soros and the billions he netted by short selling theBritish pound. In The Art of Short Selling, Kathryn Staley, anexpert in the field, examines the essentials of this importantinvestment vehicle, providing a comprehensive game plan with whichyou can effectively play--and win--the short selling game.Whether used as a means of hedging bets, decreasing the volatilityof total returns, or improving returns, short selling must behandled with care--and with the right know-how. As Staley pointsout, Short selling is not for the faint of heart. If a stock movesagainst the position holder, the effect on a portfolio and networth can be devastating. Investors need to understand the impacton their accounts as well as the consequences of getting bought inbefore they indulge in short selling. The Art of Short Sellingguides you--clearly and concisely--through the ins and outs of thishigh-risk, high-stakes game.The first--and most important--move in selling short is to identifyflaws in a business before its share prices drop. To help youtackle this key step, Staley shows you how to evaluate companyfinancial statements and balance sheets, make sense of returnratios, detect inconsistencies in inventory, and analyze thestatement of cash flows. Through real-world examples thatillustrate the shorting of bubble, high multiple growth, and themestocks, you'll proceed step by step through the complete processand learn to carry out all the essentials for a successful shortsell, including quantifying the risk factor and orchestratingcorrect timing, as well as implementing advanced valuationtechniques to execute the sell/buy.Packed with landmark, cutting-edge examples, up-to-the-minuteguidelines, and pertinent regulations, The Art of Short Selling isa timely and comprehensive reference that arms you with thenecessary tools to make a prepared and confident entrance onto theshort selling playing field.

Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger


Charles T. Munger - 2005
    Edited by Peter D. Kaufman. Brand New.

Angel: How to Invest in Technology Startups—Timeless Advice from an Angel Investor Who Turned $100,000 into $100,000,000


Jason Calacanis - 2017
    Now, in this enlightening guide that is sure to become the bible for twenty-first century investors, Calacanis takes potential angels step-by-step through his proven method of creating massive wealth: startups.As Calacanis makes clear, you can get rich—even if you came from humble beginnings (his dad was a bartender, his mom a nurse), didn’t go to the right schools, and weren’t a top student. The trick is learning how angel investors think. Calacanis takes you inside the minds of these successful moneymen, helping you understand how they prioritize and make the decisions that have resulted in phenomenal profits. He guides you step by step through the process, revealing how leading investors evaluate new ventures, calculating the risks and rewards, and explains how the best startups leverage relationships with angel investors for the best results.Whether you’re an aspiring investor or a budding entrepreneur, Angel will inspire and educate you on all the ins of outs. Buckle up for a wild ride into the world of angel investing!

Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System from Crisis — and Themselves


Andrew Ross Sorkin - 2009
    From inside the corner office at Lehman Brothers to secret meetings in South Korea, and the corridors of Washington, Too Big to Fail is the definitive story of the most powerful men and women in finance and politics grappling with success and failure, ego and greed, and, ultimately, the fate of the world’s economy. “We’ve got to get some foam down on the runway!” a sleepless Timothy Geithner, the then-president of the Federal Reserve of New York, would tell Henry M. Paulson, the Treasury secretary, about the catastrophic crash the world’s financial system would experience. Through unprecedented access to the players involved, Too Big to Fail re-creates all the drama and turmoil, revealing neverdisclosed details and elucidating how decisions made on Wall Street over the past decade sowed the seeds of the debacle. This true story is not just a look at banks that were “too big to fail,” it is a real-life thriller with a cast of bold-faced names who themselves thought they were too big to fail.

There's Always Something to Do: The Peter Cundill Investment Approach


Christopher Risso-gill - 2011
    In a seamlessly assembled narrative drawn from interviews, speeches, and exclusive access to the daily journal Cundill kept for forty-five years, Christopher Risso-Gill outlines Cundill's investment approach and provides accounts of his investments and the analytical process that led to their selection. A book for everyday investors as much as professional investors and investment gurus, There's Always Something to Do offers a compelling perspective on global financial markets and on how we can avoid their worst pitfalls and grow our hard-earned capital.