This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

    Sound Pictures offers a powerful and intimate account of how he did so. The second and final volume of the definitive biography of the man, Sound Pictures traces the story of the Beatles' breathtaking artistic trajectory after reaching the creative heights of Rubber Soul. As the bandmates engage in brash experimentation both inside and outside the studio, Martin toils along with manager Brian Epstein to consolidate the Beatles' fame in the face of growing sociocultural pressures, including the crisis associated with the "Beatles are more popular than Jesus" scandal. Meanwhile, he also struggles to make his way as an independent producer in the highly competitive world of mid-1960s rock 'n' roll. As Martin and the Beatles create one landmark album after another, including such masterworks as Revolver, Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band, The Beatles (The White Album), and Abbey Road, the internal stakes and interpersonal challenges become ever greater. During his post-Beatles years, Martin attempts to discover new vistas of sound recording with a host of acts, including Jeff Beck, America, Cheap Trick, Paul McCartney, and Elton John, his creative breakthroughs followed by unprecedented commercial success. Eventually, though, all roads bring Martin back to the Beatles, as the group seeks out new ways to memorialize their achievement under the supervision of the man who has come to be known as Sir George. Now, more than fifty years after the Beatles' revolutionary triumphs, Martin's singular stamp on popular music has become more vital than ever, as successive generations discover the magic of the Beatles and their groundbreaking sound.

    A prominent bank CEO seems on the verge of a nervous breakdown.In Washington D.C., a former Wall Street regulator checks into a hotel using the name of a hedge fund manager for an illicit meeting with a prostitute. In a D.C. suburb, the CFO of a beleaguered mortgage giant chooses a drastic personal end to “relentless pressure”.In a picturesque suburb of Zug, Switzerland, the CFO of a major insurance company decides to end his life. In London, a financier kills himself in a way he once said he never would.In her new memoir, Janet Tavakoli shines a bright light on the money-driven culture of Wall Street and Washington, and the life and death consequences of our decisions that put profit above all.Approximately 16,000 words of text (not including front and back matter and references. 105 total pages)Praise for Decisions"Tavakoli takes us on a scenic tour of the recent lowlights of Wall Street and Washington...demystified and rendered tragically human. It's a compelling tale.” Jake Bernstein, winner of the Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting "Merrill Debauchery Only Begins This Woman's Tale... 'Neither Bill nor I believed Calvi committed suicide,' Tavakoli writes. 'Bill joked that he'd never hang himself. It was too gruesome.'"Bloomberg News "Janet Tavakoli is a born storyteller with an incredible tale to tell. She takes us on a br /isk journey from the depravity of 1980s Wall Street to the systemic recklessness that crushed the global economy.”Nomi Prins, author of All the Presidents' Bankers “An authority on credit derivatives, has written a reflective memoir about life in the world of finance. Tavakoli is not a woman who employs words carelessly, and when she says fraud she means ... fraud.” All About Alpha Praise for Janet M. Tavakoli“She knows her stuff, has strong opinions, and turns a colourful quote.” Financial Times “Janet Tavakoli knows more about the inside of the financial world than nearly anyone else!”Jim Rogers, Author of Street Smarts - Adventures on the Road and in the Markets“Intelligent analyst whose command of the arcane world...mixed with a brutally honest analytical framework makes it a pleasure to read her work.” Asia Times Online

    

    NEW.

    Thrown headfirst into the presidency by the assassination of his predecessor, he led with courage, character, and vision in the face of overwhelming challenges, whether busting corporate trusts or building the Panama Canal. Roosevelt has been a hero to millions of Americans for over a century and is a splendid model to help you master today's turbulent marketplace and be a hero and a leader in your own organization.

    Well, here's some great news: amazing opportunities exist in the Canadian real estate market for investors who understand how big-picture economic fundamentals can be combined with sound property analysis to create exceptional wealth. Your key to success is to learn the powerful techniques that have helped thousands of others to make money and accomplish their lifestyle dreams through intelligent real estate investing.In Real Estate Investing in Canada, you'll discover the breakthrough Authentic Canadian Real Estate (ACRE) system, a step-by-step program designed to unlock the secrets behind profitable real estate investing. Developed by Canadians for Canadians, savvy investors have already used this ACRE approach to purchase nearly $1 billion in property. You can learn how the ACRE system can help you cut through real estate market hype to get honest answers about critical investment questions.In Real Estate Investing in Canada, you'll learn:how to spot a market that is over-priced or, better yet, under-priced how to know if a town will boom or bust--before it happens how to accurately analyze any property--even if you're a novice investor decide, within 30 seconds, whether a property has profit potential or not the 18 secrets to street-smart negotiations--how to use them to get the deal you want the 7 proven strategies that will get the bank to say yes to your deals how to get your offer accepted, even in a competitive market the single most important step for an overachieving real estate investor (it's not what you think!) The fundamentals of the real estate market have changed dramatically over the past few years, and investors need to know how to read the signs so they get in and--just as importantly--out of the market at the right time.So, if you're serious about informed investing, read Real Estate Investing in Canada, learn the ACRE system, and join the ranks fo Canada's top real estate investors.********************************************************Canadians are looking to real estate investing to build wealth given the unpredictable nature of the stock market. The Authentic Canadian Real Estate (ACRE) System is the first of its kind to show ordinary Canadians how to profit from investing in residential real estate. In Real Estate Investing in Canada, readers will discover how to cut through the hype and emotion of a real estate market and assess the inherent risks and rewards. Whether buying a first property or the 100th, this book gives every investor new-found tools, strategies and confidence to achieve their investment goals.What Canadian real estate investors are saying about the ACRE System and Don R. Campbell: "This is a great book. One strategy alone saved me over $28,000 in the last nine months!" -- Michael Millenaar"Full of practical Canadian content and presented in an organized and respectful system. It directly addresses how you get the money and financing you need to purchase enough real estate to achieve your goals." -- Tamara MacLaren"One of Don Campbell's great gifts is his near-genius ability to take something that appears complex and break it down into a simple step-by-step system that anyone can follow. I am convinced that everyone will thoroughly enjoy, and more important, benefit financially, by reading this book." -- Russell Westcott"The power of Real Estate Investing in Canada lies in the super simple, street-proven systems that it offers you. It makes real estate dreams possible and reachable for any Canadian. If you are serious about learning the truth, cutting through all the hype and being successful, this is your real estate bible!"-- Valden Palm, Misterrrsp.com A portion of the proceeds from this book will be donated to Habitat for Humanity Canada.Special BonusThe markets across the country are continually shifting and you must keep on top of the latest information. So, as a bonus, every registered reader of Real Estate Investing in Canada will have proprietary access to critical forms and ongoing market research at www.reincanada.com.

    A real-life thriller--the story of kickbacks and payoffs, of shady deals struck in secret with known felons; a story in which half a million people lose enormous sums--some their life's savings--in the largest securities fraud of the 1980s, with names like Onassis and Bush numbered among the victims.

    Born in the late 1800s into a humble world of dirt roads and telegraphs, Powel and Lewis Crosley were opposites in many ways but shared drive, talent, and an unerring knack for knowing what Americans wanted. Their pioneering inventions — from the first mass-produced economy car to the push-button radio — and breakthroughs in broadcasting and advertising made them both wealthy and famous, as did their ownership of the Cincinnati Reds. But as their fortunes grew, so did Powel’s massive ego, which demanded he own eight mansions and seven yachts at the height of the Great Depression. Rich with detailed reminiscences from surviving family members, Crosley is both a powerful saga of a heady time in American history and an intimate tale of two brilliant brothers navigating triumph and tragedy.

    But only one of them was ever a real person—Colonel Sanders of Kentucky Fried Chicken/KFC. From a 1930s roadside café in Corbin, Kentucky, Harland Sanders launched a fried chicken business that now circles the globe, serving “finger lickin’ good” chicken to more than twelve million people every day. But to get there, he had to give up control of his company and even his own image, becoming a mere symbol to people today who don’t know that Colonel Sanders was a very real human being. This book tells his story—the story of a dirt-poor striver with unlimited ambition who personified the American Dream.Acclaimed cultural historian Josh Ozersky defines the American Dream as being able to transcend your roots and create yourself as you see fit. Harland Sanders did exactly that. Forced at age ten to go to work to help support his widowed mother and sisters, he failed at job after job until he went into business for himself as a gas station/café/motel owner and finally achieved a comfortable, middle-class life. But then the interstate bypassed his business and, at sixty-five, Sanders went broke again. Packing his car with a pressure cooker and his secret blend of eleven herbs and spices, he began peddling the recipe for “Colonel Sanders’ Kentucky Fried Chicken” to small-town diners in exchange for a nickel for each chicken they sold. Ozersky traces the rise of Kentucky Fried Chicken from this unlikely beginning, telling the dramatic story of Sanders’ self-transformation into “The Colonel,” his truculent relationship with KFC management as their often-disregarded goodwill ambassador, and his equally turbulent afterlife as the world’s most recognizable commercial icon.

    Hoping for a new start, the Islanders swapped out their distinctive logo, which featured the letters NY and a map of Long Island, for a cartoon fisherman wearing a rain slicker and gripping a hockey stick. The new logo immediately drew comparisons to the mascot for Gorton’s frozen seafood, and opposing fans taunted the team with chants of “We want fish sticks!” During a rebranding process that lasted three torturous seasons, the Islanders unveiled a new mascot, new uniforms, new players, a new coach, and a new owner that were supposed to signal a return to championship glory. Instead, the team and its fans endured a twenty-eight-month span more humiliating than what most franchises witness over twenty-eight years. The Islanders thought they had traded for a star player to inaugurate the fisherman era, but he initially refused to report and sulked until the general manager banished him. Fans beat up the new mascot in the stands. The new coach shoved and spit at players. The Islanders were sold to a supposed billionaire who promised to buy elite players; he turned out to be a con artist and was sent to prison. We Want Fish Sticks examines this era through period sources and interviews with the people who lived it.

    A good idea can inspire one commercial. But a good insight can fuel a thousand ideas, a thousand commercials. An insight gives you an entirely new way of thinking about your business. Consider just a few of the breakthrough insights that Dusenberry's agency, BBDO, has offered their clients over the years: That General Electric's unifying tagline should be ?We bring good things to life.? That Pepsi should be targeting the ?Pepsi Generation.? That Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection theme should be ?Morning in America.? That Visa should compare itself with American Express, not MasterCard. Talk about moving the needle!Dusenberry argues that these brainstorms don?t come out of thin air, even at a world class organization like BBDO. They are actually the result of a rigorous and disciplined process of insight generation, one that any manager in any type of business can adopt. Dusenberry explains this process?Research, Analysis, Insight, Strategy, and Execution (RAISE)?in plain English. And he offers examples of some of the greatest business insights of our time, from the birth of Federal Express to the positioning of HBO."Moving the Needle" will help businesspeople get to the heart of their toughest problems.

    The dust had yet to settle on the global financial crisis in 2009 when an unlikely Wharton grad was setting in motion a fraud of unprecedented gall and magnitude--one that would come to symbolize the next great threat to the global financial system. Billion Dollar Whale will become a classic, harrowing parable about the financial world in the twenty-first century.

    Filmmaker and author Mike Cernovich is also confronted by people who claim he has shared fake news. Find out how he answers these allegations in Hoaxed.

    TATAlog presents eight riveting and hitherto untold stories about the strategic and operational challenges that TATA companies have faced, and the forward thinking and determination that have raised the brand to new heights. Among the engaging and inspiring stories told here are those of Tata Indica, the first completely Indian car that succeeded in the face of widespread cynicism; the jewellery brand Tanishq that has transformed one of Indias largest industries; and Tata Finance, which underwent several tribulations yet demonstrated the principles which Tata stands for. Written by a TATA insider, TATAlog reveals the DNA of every TATA enterprisea combination of the virtues of being pioneering, purposive, principled and not perfect, along with tremendous human effort.