But behind the closed doors of Dorothy's house, she quickly discovers that nothing is as it seems.When Dorothy's manuscript throws up striking similarities to events in Rachel's own life, she becomes convinced that the past she's tried to hide is catching up with her.Then the phone calls start. The parcel arrives. The blood shows up in the bathroom.And Dorothy's friend disappears.Terrified of being blamed for murder, Rachel has nobody left to turn to.Because who can she believe when she doesn't even trust herself...?

    Features chapters on finance, marketing, accounting, strategy, quantitative analysis, operations, economics, organisational behaviour, and ethics, all revised to reflect the contemporary corporate culture and economic climate.

    A BRONZE medal winner and highly recommended." -The Wishing Shelf Book Awards, 2016 Fall in love with the achingly beautiful story of Echo and Connor, supernaturally gifted teens, as they fight to live out their destiny together. Echo had it all--she lived in a mansion in the wealthiest neighborhood and was a member of the Partychicks, the elite high school clique. But her enviable life was ripped apart when a bullying incident put her in a coma. When Echo wakes up, she's gained paranormal powers that she can't control. Objects magically fly through the air. Lights flicker. Trees snap in half. Echo's untamed paranormal abilities wreak havoc on her life, and she will do just about anything to get rid of them. Even if it means sharing her secret with Connor, the gorgeous, frightening stranger who appears out of thin air and possesses shocking supernatural abilities. He promises to teach her things beyond her wildest imagination--if Echo has the courage to trust him. Soon, she is pulled into a world of mystical possibility and starts falling hard for the enigmatic Connor. As Echo uncovers the truth about him, she discovers a dark secret brewing within her city: people with paranormal gifts are being kidnapped and murdered. Escaping with Connor would keep Echo alive, but at a high cost to him and to the future they both believe in. Echo must choose between her love for Connor and her own safety, but she can't have both. Echo Into Darkness The exciting sequel to the award-winning Echo Across Time. So close to death that he could probably taste it, Connor set his gaze on his hidden audience. At a moment when most prisoners would lash out in panic, he stared down his tormentors. Behind that stormy, warring face was a tenderness that only I knew. A devotion that ran so deep, he had risked everything to search for me beyond the boundaries of time. Now, his life was in my hands. As Echo tries to piece her life together after the devastating separation from her soulmate, she finds herself in a cat-and-mouse game with bewitching criminals whose paranormal terrorism threatens to take over her city. When a frightening turn of events puts Connor's life at risk, Echo must unveil the depths of her power or lose him forever. Echo Into Darkness is a story of power, passion and deceit that will keep you turning pages and leave you breathless.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics so you can understand key points and actually use them. Learn to present data visually with charts and plots; discover the difference between taking the average with mean, median, and mode, and why it's important; learn how to calculate probability and expectation; and much more.Head First Statistics is ideal for high school and college students taking statistics and satisfies the requirements for passing the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Exam. With this book, you'll:Study the full range of topics covered in first-year statistics Tackle tough statistical concepts using Head First's dynamic, visually rich format proven to stimulate learning and help you retain knowledge Explore real-world scenarios, ranging from casino gambling to prescription drug testing, to bring statistical principles to life Discover how to measure spread, calculate odds through probability, and understand the normal, binomial, geometric, and Poisson distributions Conduct sampling, use correlation and regression, do hypothesis testing, perform chi square analysis, and moreBefore you know it, you'll not only have mastered statistics, you'll also see how they work in the real world. Head First Statistics will help you pass your statistics course, and give you a firm understanding of the subject so you can apply the knowledge throughout your life.

    

    They are made. And Jeffrey Fox's powerful How to Become a Rainmaker will get you there. Now Updated and with New Success Tips! Filled with smart tips given in the Fox signature style, counter-intuitive, controversial, and practiced, this hard-hitting collection of sales advice shows readers how to woo, pursue, and finally win any customer. In witty, succinct chapters, Fox offers surprising, daring, and totally practical wisdom that will help readers rise above the competition in any company in any field. A terrific resource for CEOs, as well as anyone looking to distinguish themselves in sales--be it books, cars, or real estate--How to Become a Rainmaker offers the opportunity to rise above the competition in any company, in any field.

    talks with some of the most revered voices in the nation, including Warren Buffett; former Treasury Secretaries Paul O'Neill and Robert Rubin; and Pete Peterson, CEO of The Blackstone Group. Defiantly non-partisan, the empowering solutions outlined in these pages are a must-read for any American concerned about the current state of affairs.

    People can use economics and they can use statistics and numbers to get at the truth and there is a real appetite for doing so. This is such a BBC thing to say--there’s almost a public service mission to be fulfilled in educating people about economics. When I wrote The Undercover Economist, it was all about my pure enthusiasm for the subject; the book is full of stuff I wanted to say and that is always the thing with the books: they are always such fun to write. Do you think that people these days are generally more economically literate? People are now aware of economics for various reasons. There are the problems with the economy--there is always more interest in economics when it is all going wrong. Where is the border line in your new book between economics and sociology? I don’t draw a border line, and particularly not with the new book. The Undercover Economist was basically all the cool economics I could think of and The Logic of Life was me investigating a particular part of economics. All of the references in The Logic of Life were academic economics papers that I had related--and hopefully made more fun. This new book, Adapt, is very different. I have started by asking what is wrong with the world, what needs fixing, how does it work--and if economics can tell us something about that (which it can) then I have used it. And if economics is not the tool that you need--if you need to turn to sociology or engineering or biology or psychology--I have, in fact, turned to all of them in this book. If that’s what you need, then that’s where I have gone. So I have written this book in a different way: I started with a problem and tried to figure out how to solve it. What specific subjects do you tackle? To be a bit more specific, the book is about how difficult problems get solved and I look at quick change; the banking crisis; poverty; innovation, as I think there is an innovation slow-down; and the war in Iraq. Also, I look at both problems in business and in everyday life. Those are the big problems that I look at--and my conclusion is that these sorts of problems only ever get solved by trial and error, so when they are being solved, they are being solved through experimentation, which is often a bottom-up process. When they are not being solved it is because we are not willing to experiment, or to use trial and error. Do you think companies will change to be much more experimental, with more decisions placed in the hands of employees? I don’t think that is necessarily a trend, and the reason is that the market itself is highly experimental, so if your company isn’t experimental it may just happen to have a really great, successful idea--and that’s fine; if it doesn’t, it will go bankrupt. But that said, it is very interesting to look at the range of companies who have got very into experimentation--they range from the key-cutting chain Timpson’s to Google; you can’t get more different than those two firms, but actually the language is very similar; the recruitment policies are similar; the way the employees get paid is similar. The “strap line” of the book is that “Success always starts with failure.” You are a successful author… so what was the failure that set you up for success? I was working on a book before The Undercover Economist… it was going to be a sort of Adrian Mole/Bridget Jones’ Diary-styled fictional comedy, in which the hero was this economist and through the hilarious things that happened to him, all these economic principles would be explained--which is a great idea--but the trouble is that I am not actually funny. Another example would be my first job as a management consultant… and I was a terrible management consultant. I crashed out after a few months. Much better that, than to stick with the job for two or three years-- a lot of people say you have got to do that to “show your commitment.” Taking the job was a mistake--why would I need to show my commitment to a mistake? Better to realise you made a mistake, stop and do something else, which I did. That idea that “failure breeds success” is central to most entrepreneurs. Do you think we need more of it in the UK? I think that the real problem is not failure rates in business; the problem is failure rates in politics. We need a much higher failure rate in politics. What actually happens is politicians--and this is true of all political parties--have got some project and they’ll say, “Right, we are going to do this thing,” and it is quite likely that idea is a bad idea--because most ideas fail; the world is complicated and while I don’t have the numbers for this, most ideas are, as it turns out, not good ideas. But they never collect the data, or whatever it is they need to measure, to find out where their idea is failing. So they have this bad idea, roll this bad idea out and the bad idea sticks, costs the country hundreds, millions, or billions of pounds, and then the bad idea is finally reversed by the next party on purely ideological grounds and you never find out whether it really worked or not. So we have this very, very low willingness to collect the data that would be necessary to demonstrate failure, which is the bit we actually need. To give a brief example: Ken Livingstone, as Mayor of London, came along and introduced these long, bendy buses. Boris Johnson came along and said, “If you elect me, I am going to get rid of those big bendy buses and replace them with double-decker buses.” He was elected and he did it, so… which one of them is right? I don’t know. I mean, isn’t that crazy? I know democracy is a wonderful thing and we voted for Ken Livingstone and we voted for Boris Johnson, but it would be nice to actually have the data on passenger injury rates, how quickly people can get on and off these buses, whether disabled people are using these buses… the sort of basic evidence you would want to collect. Based on that, are you a supporter of David Cameron’s “Big Society”, which in a sense favours local experimentation over central government planning? Well, I have some sympathy for the idea of local experimentation, but what worries me is that we have to have some mechanism that is going to tell you what is working and what is not--and there is no proposal for that. Cameron’s Tories seem to have the view that ‘if it is local then it will work.’ In my book, I have all kinds of interesting case studies of situations where localism really would have worked incredibly well, as in, say, the US Army in Iraq. But I have also got examples of where localism did not work well at all--such as a corruption-fighting drive in Indonesia. Is the new book, Adapt, your movement away from economic rationalist to management guru? Are you going to cast your eye over bigger problems? The two changes in Adapt are that I have tried to start with the problem, rather than saying, “I have got a hammer--I’m going to look for a nail.” I started with a nail and said, “Ok, look, I need to get this hammered in.” So I have started with the problem and then looked anywhere for solutions. And the second thing is that I have tried to do is write with more of a narrative. This is not a Malcolm Gladwell book, but I really admire the way that people like Gladwell get quite complex ideas across because they get you interested in the story; that is something that I have tried to do more of here. I am not too worried about it, because I know that I am never going to turn into Malcolm Gladwell--I am always going to be Tim Harford--but it doesn’t hurt to nudge in a certain direction. On Amazon, we recommend new book ideas to people: “If you like Tim Harford you may like…”, but what does Tim Harford also like? I read a lot of books, mostly non-fiction and in two categories: people who I think write a lot better than I do, and people who think about economics more deeply than I do. In the first category I am reading people like Michael Lewis, Kathryn Schulz (I loved her first book, Being Wrong), Malcolm Gladwell and Alain de Botton. In the second category, I read lots of technical economics books, but I enjoy Steven Landsburg, Edward Glaeser (who has a book out now which looks good), Bill Easterly… I don’t necessarily agree with all of these people! When I am not reading non-fiction, I am reading comic books or 1980s fantasy authors like Jack Vance.

    A. Salvatore expands his sweeping fantasy epic to include a new generation of heroes and villains. Picking up where the first three books leave off, this convenient eBook bundle contains the follow-up novel and sequel trilogy that round out the beloved series:  MORTALISASCENDANCETRANSCENDENCEIMMORTALIS  The long struggle is over at last. The demon is no more, its dark sorceries shattered by the gemstone magic wielded by the woman known as Pony. But victory did not come easily. Many lives were lost, including Pony’s lover, the elf-trained ranger Elbryan Wyndon, and their son. And despite the demon’s demise, the kingdom still seethes in a cauldron of plots and machinations. When a deadly sickness suddenly appears among the people of Corona, Pony must undertake a pilgrimage that will test her powers—and her faith—as never before.   But unknown to Pony, her child never died. Instead, he is secretly raised to be a weapon. Stolen away by the queen of the elves, the headstrong Aydrian shows great promise in the arts of combat, and he is as powerful with the gemstone magic as Pony. Hungry for power, Aydrian soon joins forces with his own mother’s mortal enemy, setting himself on a collision course with destiny.  Praise for the DemonWars Saga   “An enthralling epic adventure story, it introduces memorable characters and an intricate scheme of magic the readers won’t soon forget.”—Terry Brooks, on The Demon Awakens  “R. A. Salvatore at his best—and even better.”—New York Times bestselling author Michael A. Stackpole, on Mortalis  “As R. A. Salvatore continues to build his detailed and complex history, his readership is sure to build as well.”—New York Times bestselling author Kevin J. Anderson, on Ascendance  “Outstanding . . . [Transcendance has] a first-rate female high-fantasy protagonist.”—Booklist   “Fans will dance with joy.”—Kirkus Reviews, on Immortalis

    Fleeing her fanatical republican family, Molly O’Dowd arrives nearly penniless in London at the end of the nineteenth century. Plunged into the world of East End gambling houses and brothels, Molly invests what little money she has in a typing course, her only way out. This investment will lead her on the path to establishing herself as a woman of power and means.From the rough-and-tumble world of the London docks to the luxurious hotels and restaurants of the fashionable West End, Molly captures the temper of the times – the unrest of the labouring classes, the courage of the suffragette movement, the ravages of the First World War. Molly wins and loses in the tempestuous world of the capital but her energy and determination never flag and tides change when she meets a man who could match her in business… and in love. This rags-to-riches historical romance is perfect for fans of Lily Graham, Natalie Meg Evans and Fiona McIntosh.

    Refusing to look back, she’s ready to put her time and focus on helping couples celebrate their happily ever after’s with a new position with Barefoot Brides. Just because she didn’t get her happy ending, doesn’t mean she’s given up on love. Unfortunately, one of the first couple’s she’s up to work with is her ex and the woman he cheated on her with!Max Santos knows every inch of the Casa Blanca Resort & Spa property like the back of his hand – basically because he’s the one responsible for it all. He loves his job. Loves his life on Mimosa Key but…he’s in a rut. Work has become his life and he’s almost desperate for something to come along and shake up his world a little bit. And when Ellie shows up in one of his equipment sheds cursing like a sailor while she’s clearly hiding out, his curiosity is instantly piqued. Soon, he’s helping her in the craziest – and sexiest - game of hide and seek all over Casa Blanca!Ellie knows she’ll never be able to truly move forward until she confronts her ex, but doing that means she won’t have any excuses to keep ‘running’ into Max. She thinks it’s too soon to start thinking about a future with him, but Max keeps proving time and time again that he’ll be there for her. And while Ellie’s been hiding from her past, Max has been anxiously seeking their future – their forever. Seeking Forever is part of Roxanne St. Claire's Barefoot Bay Kindle World

    The title of this book refers to a story about a visitor to New York who admired the yachts of the bankers and brokers. Naively, he asked where all the customers' yachts were? Of course, none of the customers could afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers. Full of wise contrarian advice and offering a true look at the world of investing, Where are the customers' yachts continues to open the eyes of investors to the reality of Wall Street. Here, Leo Gough’s interpretation of Where are the customer’s yachts illustrates the timeless nature of Fred Schwed’s insights by bringing them to life through 52 modern case studies. This brilliant interpretation is an entertaining accompaniment to one of the most famous books on investment ever written.

    It includes all the diagnostic criteria from DSM-IV-TR(R) in an easy-to-use, spiralbound format. It includes a pull-out chart of the DSM-IV-TR Classification.Changes were made to the following diagnostic criteria: - Personality Change Due to a General Medical Condition - Paraphilias- Tic Disorders

    Thorp invented card counting, proving the seemingly impossible: that you could beat the dealer at the blackjack table. As a result he launched a gambling renaissance. His remarkable success--and mathematically unassailable method--caused such an uproar that casinos altered the rules of the game to thwart him and the legions he inspired. They barred him from their premises, even put his life in jeopardy. Nonetheless, gambling was forever changed.Thereafter, Thorp shifted his sights to "the biggest casino in the world" Wall Street. Devising and then deploying mathematical formulas to beat the market, Thorp ushered in the era of quantitative finance we live in today. Along the way, the so-called godfather of the quants played bridge with Warren Buffett, crossed swords with a young Rudy Giuliani, detected the Bernie Madoff scheme, and, to beat the game of roulette, invented, with Claude Shannon, the world's first wearable computer.Here, for the first time, Thorp tells the story of what he did, how he did it, his passions and motivations, and the curiosity that has always driven him to disregard conventional wisdom and devise game-changing solutions to seemingly insoluble problems. An intellectual thrill ride, replete with practical wisdom that can guide us all in uncertain financial waters, A Man for All Markets is an instant classic--a book that challenges its readers to think logically about a seemingly irrational world.Praise for A Man for All Markets"In A Man for All Markets, [Thorp] delightfully recounts his progress (if that is the word) from college teacher to gambler to hedge-fund manager. Along the way we learn important lessons about the functioning of markets and the logic of investment."--The Wall Street Journal"[Thorp] gives a biological summation (think Richard Feynman's Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!) of his quest to prove the aphorism 'the house always wins' is flawed. . . . Illuminating for the mathematically inclined, and cautionary for would-be gamblers and day traders"-- Library Journal