He has never seen outside its walls—at least, not the way most people see. Now he must flee those walls or die. But the world beyond is hardly ready for a boy like Caleb. When relief worker Jason Marker agrees to take Caleb from the monastery, he unwittingly opens humanity's doors to an incredible journey filled with political intrigue and peril. Jason and Leiah—the French-Canadian nurse who escapes the monastery with him—quickly realize Caleb's supernatural power to heal. But so do the boy's enemies, who will stop at nothing to destroy him. Jason and Leiah fight for Caleb’s survival while the world erupts in debate over the source of his power. A Man Called Blessed Rebecca Soloman leads a team deep into the Ethiopian desert to hunt the one man who may know the final resting place of the Ark of the Covenant. But Islamic extremists fear that the Ark's discovery will compel Israel to rebuild Solomon's temple on the very site of their own holy mosque in Jerusalem. They immediately dispatch Ismael, their most accomplished assassin, to pursue the same man. But the one in their sights is no ordinary man. His name is Caleb, and he is also on a quest—to find again the love he embraced as a child.

    In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

    That afternoon she went with her fiancée to watch Tipperary and Dublin play a gaelic football match at Croke Park. Across the city nine men lay dead in their beds after a synchronised IRA attack designed to cripple British intelligence services in Ireland. Trucks of police and military rumbled through the city streets as hundreds of people clamoured at the metal gates of Dublin Castle seeking refuge. Some of them were headed for Croke Park.Award-winning journalist and author Michael Foley recounts the extraordinary story of Bloody Sunday in Croke Park and the 90 seconds of shooting that changed Irish history forever. In a deeply intimate portrait he tells for the first time the stories of those killed, the police and military that were in Croke Park that day, and the families left shattered in its aftermath, all against the backdrop of a fierce conflict that stretched from the streets of Dublin and the hedgerows of Tipperary to the halls of Westminster.

    As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    Starting from the basics of probability, the authors develop the theory of statistical inference using techniques, definitions, and concepts that are statistical and are natural extensions and consequences of previous concepts. This book can be used for readers who have a solid mathematics background. It can also be used in a way that stresses the more practical uses of statistical theory, being more concerned with understanding basic statistical concepts and deriving reasonable statistical procedures for a variety of situations, and less concerned with formal optimality investigations.

    Based on years of personal research and client feedback, best-selling author, naturopath and health coach Kylie Ansett answers the question;What is the secret to looking and feeling younger? You will learn: • How to have whiter teeth without using chemicals • How to firm and tone your face for free • How to wake early feeling refreshed and energized every day • How to have the energy of a 25 year old without taking a single supplement • Detox methods that will take years off your face and decades off your body • And much, much more! Do you ever hear yourself making the excuse: “I’m too old for that!”? Do you look in the mirror some days and not recognize who is looking back? (Other days you feel just as old as you look!) Every day more grey hairs. And wrinkles. You don’t have as much energy. You’re not as bendy as you used to be. Skin that used to be firm is, well, less firm. Is there a way? Can you recapture the energy, the vitality and the health of your younger days? Can you start looking younger instead of older every day? Is there a way to turn back time? Look at what others have said about 10 Years Younger: Way more than just about looking good. Straightforward and practical advice for anyone who wants to be more conscious about their health, looks and life choices. - Harmony Davis Interesting, heartfelt, practical and humorous. A great reminder of how easy, cheap and effective looking younger can be. An excellent resource to keep us healthy and younger looking. - Deborah Sutton There is something in here for every woman; all the tips are simple, inexpensive and easy to implement. Read this and your body will thank you. - Julie Extremely entertaining, informative and engaging. I felt like I’d just given myself an enjoyable self-pampering session. It is a workout, a spring clean & rejuvenation for the body and mind. - Melia Vlatko-Rulo Both practical and compelling - gives the most amazing ideas for how to look and feel 10 years younger. What I like the best is the 'try it on' approach. Try them all and see what fits - what a brilliant idea! - Jane E Infante A genuine and honest approach to looking younger; and good health is at the heart of it. - Coral For those who can't or don't want to try 'artificial' ways of staying young, this is a really good book. Many techniques are simple and quick, with proven effects on your body and mind. Well written and concise, with good summaries at the end of each chapter. - J This is an upbeat and original book, about aging well. I liked the format this material was presented in, providing passages followed by an action plan. If you don't envision/equate growing older as a steady, downward slide to multiple meds, limited mobility and sagging jowls, give this one a try! - Geraldine Helen Harman Every ingenious tip was made with either ingredients I could easily find in my cupboard, or no ingredients at all, so I could begin straight away. - Taya M A holistic viewpoint, rather than quick fixes, creams and lotions. Age is as much about attitude and the way we see life.

    You will learn and understand the effects total calories, types of calories and exercise exert on body fat loss and body fat inhibition. The author covers 8 important topics in 11 chapters. The topics include: *Physiology of Weight Loss *Calories *Carbohydrates, Protein and Fat *Fat Storing Foods *Hormones *Drugs *Diets *Exercise

    Howard Farran shows that running a business isn’t all that complicated—if, you’re focusing on the right three areas: •People: maximizing the potential of employees, customers, and yourself.•Time: mastering the efficiency that helps a business turn the biggest profit possible.•Money: learning to love the numbers that function as the business’s scorecard.With simplicity, good humor, and plenty of stories Dr. Farran reveals the actions that can lead anyone to bigger profits, happier people, and a more fulfilling life.

    Useful and fun to read, this French phrase book is the ideal way for travelers to communicate easily and naturally.

    The nature of football continually changes, which means its analysis must also keep pace. This book is for students, thinkers, and theorists of the game.'Ted Hopkins - Carlton premiership player, author, and co-founder of Champion Data. Australian Rules football has been described as the most data-rich sport on Earth. Every time and everywhere an AFL side takes to the field, it is shadowed by an army of statisticians and number crunchers. The information they gather has become the sport's new language and currency. ABC journalist James Coventry, author of the acclaimed Time and Space, has joined forces with a group of razor-sharp analysts to decipher the data, and to use it to question some of football's long-held truisms. Do umpires really favour the home side? Has goal kicking accuracy deteriorated? Is Geelong the true master of the draft? Are blonds unfairly favoured in Brownlow medal voting? And are Victorians the most passionate fans? Through a blend of entertaining storytelling and expert analysis, this book will answer more questions about footy than you ever thought to ask. Praise for Time and Space:'Brilliant, masterful' - The Guardian'Arguably one of the most important books yet written on Australian Rules football.' - Inside History'Should find its way into the hands of every coach.' - AFL Record

    Even the simplest system of cause and effect can be subject to chaos, denying us accurate predictions of its behaviour, and sometimes giving rise to astonishing structures of large-scale order. Our growing understanding of Chaos Theory is having fascinating applications in the real world - from technology to global warming, politics, human behaviour, and even gambling on the stock market. Leonard Smith shows that we all have an intuitive understanding of chaotic systems. He uses accessible maths and physics (replacing complex equations with simple examples like pendulums, railway lines, and tossing coins) to explain the theory, and points to numerous examples in philosophy and literature (Edgar Allen Poe, Chang-Tzu, Arthur Conan Doyle) that illuminate the problems. The beauty of fractal patterns and their relation to chaos, as well as the history of chaos, and its uses in the real world and implications for the philosophy of science are all discussed in this Very Short Introduction.

    Auditing is perhaps our single best defense in ensuring the integrity of our financial reporting system. That's why this new Eighth Edition of Boynton and Johnson's Modern Auditing focuses on decision making and the critical role auditors play in providing assurance about the integrity of the financial reporting system. Known for its clear writing and accessibility, this text provides comprehensive and integrated coverage of current developments in the environment, standards, and methodology of auditing. Features * Real-world examples relate issues discussed in the chapter to ethics, audit decision making, and the integrity of the financial reporting system. * Focus on Audit Decisions sections highlight key factors that influence an auditor's decisions. * Includes discussion of the role of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) Auditing Standards, and a chapter feature highlights PCAOB standards that differ from Generally Accepted Auditing Standards for private companies. * Expanded case material related to the integrated audit case (Mt. Hood Furniture) provides a variety of databases that allow students to utilize generalized audit software (IDEA) to accomplish various audit tasks. Multiple databases allow the case to be reused with different data from term to term. * A flowchart style chapter preview begins each chapter. * Chapter summaries reinforce important audit decisions included in the chapter. * End-of-chapter material organized by audit decisions provides a clear link between audit decisions discussed in each chapter and the problem material.

    In addition to general advice on basic numeracy, the guide points out common errors and explains the recognized techniques for solving financial problems, analysing information of any kind, and effective decision making. Over one hundred charts, graphs, tables, and feature boxes highlight key points. Also included is an A-Z dictionary of terms covering everything from amortization to zero-sum game. Whatever your business, The Economist Numbers Guide will prove invaluable.

    Sixteen years later, the Baseball Prospectus annual regularly hits best-seller lists and has become an indispensable guide for the serious fan. In Extra Innings, the team at Baseball Prospectus integrates statistics, interviews, and analysis to deliver twenty arguments about today’s game. In the tradition of their seminal book, Baseball Between the Numbers, they take on everything from steroids to the amateur draft. They probe the impact of managers on the game. They explain the critical art of building a bullpen. In an era when statistics matter more than ever, Extra Innings is an essential volume for every baseball fan.

    Sold in over 85 countries and translated into more than 5 languages.---------------Want to get started on data science?Our promise: no math added.This book has been written in layman's terms as a gentle introduction to data science and its algorithms. Each algorithm has its own dedicated chapter that explains how it works, and shows an example of a real-world application. To help you grasp key concepts, we stick to intuitive explanations and visuals.Popular concepts covered include:- A/B Testing- Anomaly Detection- Association Rules- Clustering- Decision Trees and Random Forests- Regression Analysis- Social Network Analysis- Neural NetworksFeatures:- Intuitive explanations and visuals- Real-world applications to illustrate each algorithm- Point summaries at the end of each chapter- Reference sheets comparing the pros and cons of algorithms- Glossary list of commonly-used termsWith this book, we hope to give you a practical understanding of data science, so that you, too, can leverage its strengths in making better decisions.