Explaining why the whole is sometimes smarter than the sum of its parts, Johnson presents surprising examples of feedback, self-organization, and adaptive learning. How does a lively neighborhood evolve out of a disconnected group of shopkeepers, bartenders, and real estate developers? How does a media event take on a life of its own? How will new software programs create an intelligent World Wide Web? In the coming years, the power of self-organization -- coupled with the connective technology of the Internet -- will usher in a revolution every bit as significant as the introduction of electricity. Provocative and engaging, Emergence puts you on the front lines of this exciting upheaval in science and thought.

    Loosely based in its principles around the Biblical proverb "As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he," As a Man Thinketh asserts the powerful idea that belief is central to bringing about positive events in one's life. From Poverty to Power, Allen's first book, relies on a similar philosophy but addresses themes of adversity and suffering more directly and offers his simple wisdom as a means of overcoming difficulty. Allen's writings are powerful and relevant today as they were over a century ago, and this collection brings their solace and inspiration to modern listeners.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    The Fourth Edition builds on this strength with new examples, additional applications and increased cryptology coverage. Up-to-date information on the latest discoveries is included.Elementary Number Theory and Its Applications provides a diverse group of exercises, including basic exercises designed to help students develop skills, challenging exercises and computer projects. In addition to years of use and professor feedback, the fourth edition of this text has been thoroughly accuracy checked to ensure the quality of the mathematical content and the exercises.

    Out of Control chronicles the dawn of a new era in which the machines and systems that drive our economy are so complex and autonomous as to be indistinguishable from living things.

    In writing the book James Stewart asked himself:What is essential for a three-semester calculus course for scientists and engineers? Stewart's SINGLE VARIABLE ESSENTIAL CALCULUS: EARLY TRANSCENDENTALS offers a concise approach to teaching calculus, focusing on major concepts and supporting those with precise definitions, patient explanations, and carefully graded problems. SINGLE VARIABLE ESSENTIAL CALCULUS: EARLY TRANSCENDENTALS is only 850 pages-two-thirds the size of Stewart's other calculus texts (CALCULUS, FIFTH EDITION AND CALCULUS, EARLY TRANSCENDENTALS, Fifth Edition)-yet it contains almost all of the same topics. The author achieved this relative brevity mainly by condensing the exposition and by putting some of the features on the website www.StewartCalculus.com. Despite the reduced size of the book, there is still a modern flavor: Conceptual understanding and technology are not neglected, though they are not as prominent as in Stewart's other books. SINGLE VARIABLE ESSENTIAL CALCULUS: EARLY TRANSCENDENTALS has been written with the same attention to detail, eye for innovation, and meticulous accuracy that have made Stewart's textbooks the best-selling calculus texts in the world.

    Acclaimed technologist and inventor Amir Husain explains how we can live amidst the coming age of sentient machines and artificial intelligence—and not only survive, but thrive.Artificial “machine” intelligence is playing an ever-greater role in our society. We are already using cruise control in our cars, automatic checkout at the drugstore, and are unable to live without our smartphones. The discussion around AI is polarized; people think either machines will solve all problems for everyone, or they will lead us down a dark, dystopian path into total human irrelevance. Regardless of what you believe, the idea that we might bring forth intelligent creation can be intrinsically frightening. But what if our greatest role as humans so far is that of creators? Amir Husain, a brilliant inventor and computer scientist, argues that we are on the cusp of writing our next, and greatest, creation myth. It is the dawn of a new form of intellectual diversity, one that we need to embrace in order to advance the state of the art in many critical fields, including security, resource management, finance, and energy. “In The Sentient Machine, Husain prepares us for a brighter future; not with hyperbole about right and wrong, but with serious arguments about risk and potential” (Dr. Greg Hyslop, Chief Technology Officer, The Boeing Company). He addresses broad existential questions surrounding the coming of AI: Why are we valuable? What can we create in this world? How are we intelligent? What constitutes progress for us? And how might we fail to progress? Husain boils down complex computer science and AI concepts into clear, plainspoken language and draws from a wide variety of cultural and historical references to illustrate his points. Ultimately, Husain challenges many of our societal norms and upends assumptions we hold about “the good life.”

    In Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned, Stanley and Lehman begin with a surprising scientific discovery in artificial intelligence that leads ultimately to the conclusion that the objective obsession has gone too far. They make the case that great achievement can't be bottled up into mechanical metrics; that innovation is not driven by narrowly focused heroic effort; and that we would be wiser (and the outcomes better) if instead we whole-heartedly embraced serendipitous discovery and playful creativity.Controversial at its heart, yet refreshingly provocative, this book challenges readers to consider life without a destination and discovery without a compass.

    Created through a "student-tested, faculty-approved" review process with over 150 students and faculty, PSYCH 2 is an engaging and accessible solution to accommodate the diverse lifestyles of today's learners.

    Newman and Newman address physical, intellectual, social, and emotional growth in all life stages, focusing on the idea that development results from the interdependence of these areas at every stage, and placing special emphasis on optimal development through life. The text is noted for its clear organization, providing instructors and students with a coherent structure for tracing development over the life span. The text integrates theory and research with application, making the rich material of development useful for emerging professionals. Each life stage chapter ends with an applied topic that helps students connect the developmental themes of that stage with critical societal issues. The use of case material throughout offers a way to balance information about general patterns of development with information about individual differences and life stories. Human diversity is introduced in the very first chapter and is a continuing theme, reflected in research coverage, theoretical analysis, illustrations, and boxes. Through a variety of pedagogical strategies including the illustrations and captions, points for further reflection, and case analysis, the Newmans have created a text that encourages the reader to engage in ongoing integration and critical analysis.

    By presenting actual experiences and analyzing them as they are described, the author conveys the developmental thought processes employed and shows a style of thinking that leads to successful results is something that can be learned. Along with spectacular successes, the author also conveys how failures contributed to shaping the thought processes. Provides the reader with a style of thinking that will enhance a person's ability to function as a problem-solver of complex technical issues. Consists of a collection of stories about the author's participation in significant discoveries, relating how those discoveries came about and, most importantly, provides analysis about the thought processes and reasoning that took place as the author and his associates progressed through engineering problems.

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.

    The realistic content of its examples and exercises, the clarity and brevity of its presentation, and the soundness of its pedagogical approach have received the highest remarks from both students and instructors. Now this bestseller is available in a new 6th edition.

    Students will find concepts easy-to-understand through the clear writing style and full-color figures that illustrate current technology and trends. Examples and cases are drawn from actual systems projects that enable students to learn in the context of solving problems, much like the ones they will encounter on the job. This approach, combined with motivating tools such as the SCR Associates interactive Web-Based Case Study, Systems Analyst's Toolkit, the Student Study Tool on CD-ROM, and more, makes Systems Analysis and Design, Seventh Edition a wise and exciting choice for your introductory systems analysis and design class.

    True happiness can feel far away for people trying to understand themselves, how others think, and life itself, but it doesn’t have to be this way. I was unsure of how I would reach success. I literally felt like a newborn when I moved to Thailand. I did not know how to speak or read Thai, and I did not know what my future would look like, but I persisted. I wrote this book to help others by sharing my journey of growth from obscurity to impacting millions. These are the stories and lessons of how I found my way, and these Weapons of the Wise will hopefully help you find yours. I divided this book into four sections: I Self - How to know yourself, be adaptable, build your legacy, and manage self-expectations. II Social - How to understand others and develop a likable, growth-focused personality. III Success - How to build the habits and virtues required to reach the top of your field. IV Spiritual - How to connect with your inner voice, intuition, and spiritual self for guidance. You can start at any section depending on where you feel you need to grow the most, or read them in sequence. In all, I’m sharing The 51 Rules for Life I personally live by. Each has served me in creating the life I have today and have all been involved in my success. When I first came to Thailand, I had no friends and my parents were in a different country. The only thing with me was my dreams and my shadow. I may not have known what my future would hold, but I knew I’d succeed. I write this for my children, I write this for the world, and I write this for you in hopes it can help you on your “hero’s journey”.