Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

     Understand the dynamics of price action trading and give yourself a significant trading advantage. Benefit from years of trading experience. Give yourself an advantage by learning from someone who has experience on a prop desk. Atanas will teach you what you need to know about different types of price action and and how to trade it. Not sure where to start? Are you unsure about what it means to trade price action? Or maybe you don't understand how technical indicators work. This book will give your trading clarity. Understand different types of candlesticks and price action patterns so you can reduce your risk and be consistently profitable.. Easy to understand explanations of complex topics, this book will demystify price action trading once and for all. From Steve Burns of NewTraderU.com: "Atanas writes about the topics that most traders are interested in, price action and the tools to trade it systematically. His insight on technical indicators, how to identify and trade a trend, and how to visually see chart patterns have been read by tens of thousands of readers. The work and effort Atanas puts into writing and custom illustration is a testament to his passion for trading." About the Author: Atanas Matov a.k.a. Colibri Trader (@priceinaction on Twitter) started his trading career as a retail trader in the early 2000’s. After a few years of trading and investing his own funds, he won the KBC stock market challenge and shortly afterwards started working for a leading prop trading house in London. Currently he is trading his own account and trying to help other traders through his trading blog and social media. Major part of Atanas’s philosophy is in giving back and helping others achieve their trading goals. In his own words: “Judge your trading success by the things you have given up in order to get where you are now!" Follow Atanas on Twitter @priceinaction www.colibritrader.com

    On Target is the first in-depth look at the business leaders and strategies that made Target such a runaway success. The company's easily recognizable red-and-white logo, youthful television advertisements, and upscale partnerships-with designers like Michael Graves, Mossimo, and Todd Oldham-have not only removed the stigma traditionally attached to discount store shopping, but actually made it hip to be frugal. In the process, the company has cemented its place as the favorite discount retailer of middle- and upper-income families across the country. In On Target, award-winning business journalist Laura Rowley examines the methods and the success of the company from its shrewd merchandising strategy to its clever marketing campaigns, ingenious branding effort, and extensive philanthropy . An excellent education in how to beat the competition even in a crowded and weak retail market, Target's story details the history and incredible success of a unique company and an enticing, unmistakable brand. Both insightful and entertaining, On Target offers important business lessons for executives and managers in need of a bull's-eye.Laura Rowley (Maplewood, NJ) is an award-winning television, radio, and print journalist specializing in business reporting. She is the personal finance and career columnist for Self magazine and has also been published in The New York Times, Parents, and Newsweek. As a reporter and producer for CNN in New York, she reported on air for Your Money and Business Unusual, and produced live programs for CNNfn. She has also appeared on Good Morning America, Oxygen Media, and CNBC.

    Deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand. Scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volumes. Stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly. Examples use R with many data sets taken from the authors' own consulting experience.

    

    So what comes next? Growth will resume. But economic uncertainty will worsen, making what comes next not just a boom but a nerve-shattering SONIC BOOM. Gregg Easterbrook - who "writes nothing that is not brilliant" ("Chicago Tribune") - is a fount of unconventional wisdom, and over time, he is almost always proven right. Throughout 2008 and 2009, as the global economy was contracting and the experts were panicking, Easterbrook worked on a book saying prosperity is about to make its next big leap. Will he be right again? SONIC BOOM: Globalization at Mach Speed presents three basic insights. First, if you don't like globalization, brace yourself, because globalization has barely started. Easterbrook contends the world is about to become "far "more globally linked. Second, the next wave of global change will be primarily positive: economic prosperity, knowledge and freedom will increase more in the next 50 years than in all of human history to this point. But before you celebrate, Easterbrook further warns that the next phase of global change is going to drive us crazy. Most things will be good for most people - but nothing will seem certain for anyone. Each SONIC BOOM chapter is based on examples of cities around the world - in the United States, Europe, Russia, China, South America - that represent a significant Sonic Boom trend. With a terrific sense of humor, pitch-perfect reporting and clear, elegant prose, Easterbrook explains why economic recovery is on the horizon but why the next phase of global change will also give everyone one hell of a headache. "Forbes" calls Easterbrook "the best writer on complex topics in the United States" and SONIC BOOM will show you why.

    This derives directly from the view that the real world is fundamentally unstable and unpredictable (i.e., it’s not a matter of having a better forecasting model). The best response to such a world, therefore, is to have a good grasp of what is currently happening and to respond quickly and flexibly to the evolving situation.My worldview derives from many sources ranging from religious philosophy and long-range history, to Chaos Theory and Network Theory–with many of them integrated under a broad CAS framework. Some of the foreign writers and thinkers who have influenced me include Friedrich Hayek, Joseph Schumpeter, Daniel Kahneman, Lee Kuan Yew, Nassim Taleb, Karl Popper, Charles Darwin, Sun Tzu, Vidiadhar Naipaul and Jane Jacobs, to name a few. The Indian influences are even more varied and range from ancient texts such as the Ramayana, Mahabharata, and Kautilya’s Arthashastra, to more modern thinkers such as Swami Vivekananda and Sri Aurobindo.

    This text offers an exciting insight into the human story behind the money in our pockets, and reminds us that making a living is about exactly that - living.

    In "Crunch" he answers these as well as dozens of others he has fielded from working Americans by email, on blogs, and at events where he speaks. Chances are if there's a stumper you've always wanted to ask an economist, it's solved in this book.

    Moving between New Yorks Wall Street and the beauty of Corsica, Berberians novel is a literary rendering of Marxs Capital for the 21st century: where a fund trader makes his profits through the collapse of overseas markets--and ensures it with the aid of a hired assassin.

    Revised annually, this collection of articles by India's topmost economists and experts contains original readings, notes, and excerpts from plan documents, presenting a comprehensive and critical analysis of Indian economy since independence (1947–2006).

    Breaking everything down into simple and achievable steps, he makes this daunting process easy. Learn how to:- Find your perfect pad- Choose which mortgage is right for you- Negotiate with estate agents and sellers- Organise exchange and completion Including indispensable advice, money-saving tips and an essential trouble-shooting section, this guide covers everything a first-time buyer needs to know. And when it's time to move on again, this book will show you how to sell your home too.Phil Spencer is one the best-known faces on British television, co-presenting the hit Channel 4 series Location, Location, Location and Relocation, Relocation. Phil has written regularly columns in The Sunday Times and Country Life, and is contracted to Archant publishing to write columns that are syndicated in the group's numerous local glossy magazines which are distributed nationwide. Recent TV appearances include on The One Show, Children in Need and The Friday Night Project, and Phil also regularly appears on the radio to discuss property issues.

    Drawing on his experiences at the heart of the campaign, Daniel Hannan dissects the result and our reaction. He outlines why Vote Leave won, exploring what people were voting for and what they weren’t. He looks at the immediate aftermath—how it differs from what people expected and what it says about where to go next. Brexit, Hannan points out, is a process—not an event—with three key areas of consideration: the UK's relationship with the remaining 27 EU states; their relationship with the rest of the world; and, crucially, their consequent domestic reforms—there is no point to Brexit if they don’t now tackle the threats to democracy of corporatism and lobbying. What Next is Hannan’s blueprint for a successful Brexit. A Brexit that addresses the concerns of the 48% who voted Remain as well as of the 52% who voted Leave, a Brexit that revitalizes British democracy, and a Brexit that will be mutually beneficial for both Britain and Europe.

    

    He shares his investing philosophy and offers advice on all aspects of financial planning, including engaging an adviser; building a property portfolio; investing in shares, bonds or managed funds; growing your superannuation; and ethical investment.It’s Your Money is an indispensable guide for anyone who wants to do more with their money. Alan shows how, with a few careful steps and some practical wisdom, anyone can invest sensibly and successfully. He gives you the tools to be confidently in charge of your money and your future, your way.It’s Your Money is an indispensable guide for anyone who wants to do more with their money