Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    Theoretical, yet applied. Statistics for Business and Economics, Eleventh Edition, gives you the best of both worlds. Using a rich array of applications from a variety of industries, McClave/Sincich/Benson clearly demonstrates how to use statistics effectively in a business environment.The book focuses on developing statistical thinking so the reader can better assess the credibility and value of inferences made from data. As consumers and future producers of statistical inferences, readers are introduced to a wide variety of data collection and analysis techniques to help them evaluate data and make informed business decisions. As with previous editions, this revision offers an abundance of applications with many new and updated exercises that draw on real business situations and recent economic events. The authors assume a background of basic algebra.

    Packed with more than forty percent new and updated material, this edition shows business managers, marketing analysts, and data mining specialists how to harness fundamental data mining methods and techniques to solve common types of business problemsEach chapter covers a new data mining technique, and then shows readers how to apply the technique for improved marketing, sales, and customer supportThe authors build on their reputation for concise, clear, and practical explanations of complex concepts, making this book the perfect introduction to data miningMore advanced chapters cover such topics as how to prepare data for analysis and how to create the necessary infrastructure for data miningCovers core data mining techniques, including decision trees, neural networks, collaborative filtering, association rules, link analysis, clustering, and survival analysis

    It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

    Major retailers are predicting everything from when their customers are pregnant to when they want a new pair of Chuck Taylors. It's a brave new world where seemingly meaningless data can be transformed into valuable insight to drive smart business decisions.But how does one exactly do data science? Do you have to hire one of these priests of the dark arts, the "data scientist," to extract this gold from your data? Nope.Data science is little more than using straight-forward steps to process raw data into actionable insight. And in Data Smart, author and data scientist John Foreman will show you how that's done within the familiar environment of a spreadsheet. Why a spreadsheet? It's comfortable! You get to look at the data every step of the way, building confidence as you learn the tricks of the trade. Plus, spreadsheets are a vendor-neutral place to learn data science without the hype. But don't let the Excel sheets fool you. This is a book for those serious about learning the analytic techniques, the math and the magic, behind big data.Each chapter will cover a different technique in a spreadsheet so you can follow along: - Mathematical optimization, including non-linear programming and genetic algorithms- Clustering via k-means, spherical k-means, and graph modularity- Data mining in graphs, such as outlier detection- Supervised AI through logistic regression, ensemble models, and bag-of-words models- Forecasting, seasonal adjustments, and prediction intervals through monte carlo simulation- Moving from spreadsheets into the R programming languageYou get your hands dirty as you work alongside John through each technique. But never fear, the topics are readily applicable and the author laces humor throughout. You'll even learn what a dead squirrel has to do with optimization modeling, which you no doubt are dying to know.

    Packed with plenty of sample programs, it explains how to work with range objects, control program flow, develop custom dialog boxes, create custom toolbars and menus, and much more.Discover how toGrasp essential programming concepts Use the Visual Basic Editor Navigate the new Excel user interface Communicate with your users Deal with errors and bugs

    Rocketed to popularity by the 2003 bestseller Moneyball and the film of the same name, the use of sabermetrics to analyze player performance has appeared to be a David to the Goliath of systemically advantaged richer teams that could be toppled only by creative statistical analysis. The story has been so compelling that, over the past decade, team after team has integrated statistical analysis into its front office. But how accurately can crunching numbers quantify a player's ability? Do sabermetrics truly level the playing field for financially disadvantaged teams? How much of the baseball analytic trend is fad and how much fact?The Sabermetric Revolution sets the record straight on the role of analytics in baseball. Former Mets sabermetrician Benjamin Baumer and leading sports economist Andrew Zimbalist correct common misinterpretations and develop new methods to assess the effectiveness of sabermetrics on team performance. Tracing the growth of front office dependence on sabermetrics and the breadth of its use today, they explore how Major League Baseball and the field of sports analytics have changed since the 2002 season. Their conclusion is optimistic, but the authors also caution that sabermetric insights will be more difficult to come by in the future. The Sabermetric Revolution offers more than a fascinating case study of the use of statistics by general managers and front office executives: for fans and fantasy leagues, this book will provide an accessible primer on the real math behind moneyball as well as new insight into the changing business of baseball.

    This staggering amount of information—unprecedented in history—can tell us a great deal about who we are—the fears, desires, and behaviors that drive us, and the conscious and unconscious decisions we make. From the profound to the mundane, we can gain astonishing knowledge about the human psyche that less than twenty years ago, seemed unfathomable.Everybody Lies offers fascinating, surprising, and sometimes laugh-out-loud insights into everything from economics to ethics to sports to race to sex, gender and more, all drawn from the world of big data. What percentage of white voters didn’t vote for Barack Obama because he’s black? Does where you go to school effect how successful you are in life? Do parents secretly favor boy children over girls? Do violent films affect the crime rate? Can you beat the stock market? How regularly do we lie about our sex lives and who’s more self-conscious about sex, men or women?Investigating these questions and a host of others, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz offers revelations that can help us understand ourselves and our lives better. Drawing on studies and experiments on how we really live and think, he demonstrates in fascinating and often funny ways the extent to which all the world is indeed a lab. With conclusions ranging from strange-but-true to thought-provoking to disturbing, he explores the power of this digital truth serum and its deeper potential—revealing biases deeply embedded within us, information we can use to change our culture, and the questions we’re afraid to ask that might be essential to our health—both emotional and physical. All of us are touched by big data everyday, and its influence is multiplying. Everybody Lies challenges us to think differently about how we see it and the world.

    It outlines a set of mindsets and habits you can use to help you identify the most impactful parts of your teaching, and put them centre stage.It's about doing less to achieve more.But it's also about being happier and more confident in the classroom. Building stronger routines around the essentials will give you more time and space to appreciate and think creatively about your work.POWER UP YOUR PLANNINGLean Lesson Planning draws on the latest evidence from educational research and cognitive science, to present a concise and coherent framework to help you improve learning experiences and outcomes for your students. It's the evidence-based teacher's guide to planning for learning, and sits alongside books such as Teach Like a Champion, Embedded Formative Assessment, and Visible Learning for Teachers.NOTE If you're looking for ways to short-cut the amount of time you spend planning lessons, then this book is not for you. The approach outlined in Lean Lesson Planning requires effort and practice, that given time, will lead to better teaching and higher quality learning for less input.---CONTENTSACT I Lean foundations1. Defining lean 2. Lean mindsets 3. Lean habits ACT II Habits for planning4. Backwards design 5. Knowing knowledge 6. Checking understanding 7. Efficient strategies 8. Lasting learning 9. Inter-lesson planning ACT III Habits for growing10. Building excellence 11. Growth teaching 12. Collective improvement Lean Lesson Planning is the first instalment in the High Impact Teaching series.

    Written by an all-around tech guru and the coauthor of Windows 8.1 For Seniors For Dummies, it cuts through confusing jargon and covers just what you need to know: navigating the interface with a mouse or a touchscreen, customizing the desktop, managing printers and other external devices, setting up and connecting to simple networks, and storing files in the Cloud. Plus, you'll find helpful instructions on sending and receiving email, uploading, editing, and downloading pictures, listening to music, playing games, and so much more.Whether you're upgrading to the new Windows 10 operating system with the hopes of keeping in touch with loved ones via webcam or instant messenger, viewing videos, or simply making your life more organized and streamlined, all the guidance you need to make the most of Windows 10 is at your fingertips.Customize the desktop and set up a simple network Connect with family and friends online Work with apps like a pro Safely protect your data, your computer, and your identity With large-print format for text, figures, and drawings, there's no easier way to get up and running on the new Windows operating system than with Windows 10 For Seniors For Dummies.

    To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    Theory and practice in the design of data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception. Aesthetics and data graphical displays. This is the second edition of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Recently published, this new edition provides excellent color reproductions of the many graphics of William Playfair, adds color to other images, and includes all the changes and corrections accumulated during 17 printings of the first edition.

    Students will find concepts easy-to-understand through the clear writing style and full-color figures that illustrate current technology and trends. Examples and cases are drawn from actual systems projects that enable students to learn in the context of solving problems, much like the ones they will encounter on the job. This approach, combined with motivating tools such as the SCR Associates interactive Web-Based Case Study, Systems Analyst's Toolkit, the Student Study Tool on CD-ROM, and more, makes Systems Analysis and Design, Seventh Edition a wise and exciting choice for your introductory systems analysis and design class.

    Learn about the components of a BI architecture, how to choose the appropriate tools and technologies, and how to roll out a BI strategy throughout the organisation.

    Data Science For Dummies is the perfect starting point for IT professionals and students interested in making sense of their organization’s massive data sets and applying their findings to real-world business scenarios. From uncovering rich data sources to managing large amounts of data within hardware and software limitations, ensuring consistency in reporting, merging various data sources, and beyond, you’ll develop the know-how you need to effectively interpret data and tell a story that can be understood by anyone in your organization. Provides a background in data science fundamentals before moving on to working with relational databases and unstructured data and preparing your data for analysis Details different data visualization techniques that can be used to showcase and summarize your data Explains both supervised and unsupervised machine learning, including regression, model validation, and clustering techniques Includes coverage of big data processing tools like MapReduce, Hadoop, Dremel, Storm, and Spark It’s a big, big data world out there – let Data Science For Dummies help you harness its power and gain a competitive edge for your organization.