As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    The book explores why randomness prevails in markets most, but not all, of the time and how technical analysis can be used to capture statistically validated patterns in certain types of market conditions. The belief of the book is that buying and selling pressure causes patterns in prices, but that these technical patterns are only effective in the presence of true buying/selling imbalance.The Art and Science of Technical Analysis is supported by extensive statistical analysis of the markets, which will debunk some tools and patterns such as Fibonacci analysis, and endorse other tools and trade setups. In addition, this reliable resource discusses trader psychology and trader learning curves based on the author's extensive experience as a trader and trainer of traders.Offers serious traders a way to think about market problems, understand their own performance, and help find a more productive path forward Includes extensive research to validate specific money-making patterns and strategies Written by an experienced market practitioner who has trained and worked with many top traders Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, The Art and Science of Technical Analysis will give you a realistic sense of how markets behave, when and how technical analysis works, and what it really takes to trade successfully.

    Deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand. Scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volumes. Stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly. Examples use R with many data sets taken from the authors' own consulting experience.

    The problem with this version of history? There’s not a shred of evidence to support it.Here anthropologist David Graeber presents a stunning reversal of conventional wisdom. He shows that for more than 5,000 years, since the beginnings of the first agrarian empires, humans have used elaborate credit systems to buy and sell goods—that is, long before the invention of coins or cash. It is in this era, Graeber argues, that we also first encounter a society divided into debtors and creditors. Graeber shows that arguments about debt and debt forgiveness have been at the center of political debates from Italy to China, as well as sparking innumerable insurrections. He also brilliantly demonstrates that the language of the ancient works of law and religion (words like “guilt,” “sin,” and “redemption”) derive in large part from ancient debates about debt, and shape even our most basic ideas of right and wrong. We are still fighting these battles today without knowing it.Debt: The First 5,000 Years is a fascinating chronicle of this little known history—as well as how it has defined human history, and what it means for the credit crisis of the present day and the future of our economy.

    Whether you’re working with a few dollars a week or a significant inheritance, Bach’s nine-step program gives you tools for spending wisely, establishing security, and aligning money with your values. Plus, in this completely revised and updated edition, David Bach includes critical new long-term investment advice, information on teaching your kids about money, Internet resources, and new ways to attract greater wealth–personal and financial–into your life.

    Eminent Canadian law professor and legal theorist Joel Bakan contends that today's corporation is a pathological institution, a dangerous possessor of the great power it wields over people and societies.In this revolutionary assessment of the history, character, and globalization of the modern business corporation, Bakan backs his premise with the following observations:-The corporation’s legally defined mandate is to pursue relentlessly and without exception its own economic self-interest, regardless of the harmful consequences it might cause to others. -The corporation’s unbridled self-interest victimizes individuals, society, and, when it goes awry, even shareholders and can cause corporations to self-destruct, as recent Wall Street scandals reveal. -Governments have freed the corporation, despite its flawed character, from legal constraints through deregulation and granted it ever greater authority over society through privatization.But Bakan believes change is possible and he outlines a far-reaching program of achievable reforms through legal regulation and democratic control.Featuring in-depth interviews with such wide-ranging figures as Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman, business guru Peter Drucker, and cultural critic Noam Chomsky, The Corporation is an extraordinary work that will educate and enlighten students, CEOs, whistle-blowers, power brokers, pawns, pundits, and politicians alike.

    To the greatest extent possible, the text and formatting have been kept exactly the same as in the original release with the exception of some minor formatting changes.

    We’ve comea long way since then. With this book, Drs. Romero and Balch liftthe veil from many of these once-opaque concepts in high-techfinance. We can all benefit from learning how the cooperationbetween wetware and software creates fitter models. This bookdoes a fantastic job describing how the latest advances in financialmodeling and data science help today’s portfolio managerssolve these greater riddles. —Michael Himmel, ManagingPartner, Essex Asset ManagementI applaud Phil Romero’s willingness to write about the hedgefund world, an industry that is very private, often flamboyant,and easily misunderstood. As with every sector of the investmentlandscape, the hedge fund industry varies dramaticallyfrom quantitative “black box” technology, to fundamental researchand old-fashioned stock picking. This book helps investorsdistinguish between these diverse opposites and understandtheir place in the new evolving world of finance. —Mick Elfers,Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Irvington Capital

    Sowell reveals the general principles behind any kind of economy-capitalist, socialist, feudal, and so on. In readable language, he shows how to critique economic policies in terms of the incentives they create, rather than the goals they proclaim. With clear explanations of the entire field, from rent control and the rise and fall of businesses to the international balance of payments, this is the first book for anyone who wishes to understand how the economy functions.

    Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

    The definitive reference on trading systems, the book explains the tools and techniques of successful trading to help traders develop a program that meets their own unique needs. Presenting an analytical framework for comparing systematic methods and techniques, this new edition offers expanded coverage in nearly all areas, including trends, momentum, arbitrage, integration of fundamental statistics, and risk management. Comprehensive and in-depth, the book describes each technique and how it can be used to a trader's advantage, and shows similarities and variations that may serve as valuable alternatives. The book also walks readers through basic mathematical and statistical concepts of trading system design and methodology, such as how much data to use, how to create an index, risk measurements, and more. Packed with examples, this thoroughly revised and updated Fifth Edition covers more systems, more methods, and more risk analysis techniques than ever before. The ultimate guide to trading system design and methods, newly revised Includes expanded coverage of trading techniques, arbitrage, statistical tools, and risk management models Written by acclaimed expert Perry J. Kaufman Features spreadsheets and TradeStation programs for a more extensive and interactive learning experience Provides readers with access to a companion website loaded with supplemental materials Written by a global leader in the trading field, Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition is the essential reference to trading system design and methods updated for a post-crisis trading environment.

    

    The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with. Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed.

    Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book entices lay-readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.You have been predicted — by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, "I knew you were going to do that!" These institutions are seizing upon the power to predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats financial risk, fortifies healthcare, conquers spam, toughens crime fighting, and boosts sales.How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, booming unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future — lifting a bit of the fog off our hazy view of tomorrow — means pay dirt.In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: -What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. -Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves. -Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. -Five reasons why organizations predict death, including one health insurance company. -How U.S. Bank, European wireless carrier Telenor, and Obama's 2012 campaign calculated the way to most strongly influence each individual. -How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! -How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. -How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide who stays in prison and who goes free. -What's predicted by the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, IBM, the IRS, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, Pandora, PayPal, Pfizer, and Wikipedia. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward — but that can be predicted in advance?Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.