Its big-picture, calculus-based approach makes it an especially authoriatative reference for engineering and science majors. Now thoroughly update, this second edition includes vital new coverage of order statistics, best critical regions, likelihood ratio tests, and other key topics.

    As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    Even the simplest system of cause and effect can be subject to chaos, denying us accurate predictions of its behaviour, and sometimes giving rise to astonishing structures of large-scale order. Our growing understanding of Chaos Theory is having fascinating applications in the real world - from technology to global warming, politics, human behaviour, and even gambling on the stock market. Leonard Smith shows that we all have an intuitive understanding of chaotic systems. He uses accessible maths and physics (replacing complex equations with simple examples like pendulums, railway lines, and tossing coins) to explain the theory, and points to numerous examples in philosophy and literature (Edgar Allen Poe, Chang-Tzu, Arthur Conan Doyle) that illuminate the problems. The beauty of fractal patterns and their relation to chaos, as well as the history of chaos, and its uses in the real world and implications for the philosophy of science are all discussed in this Very Short Introduction.

    This book helps put you in the driver's seat to embrace the journey and love your career." —Rebecca Minkoff, Founder of Rebecca Minkoff & The Female Founder CollectiveYOU ARE DESERVING OF A CAREER YOU LOVE.Fran Hauser, best-selling author of The Myth of the Nice Girl , follows up with a workbook for women who want to get more out of their careers. Embrace the Work, Love Your Career combines accessible advice, time-tested strategies, creative prompts, and thoughtful exercises into one holistic resource. Stemming from years of experience in senior leadership at Time Inc.'s People, InStyle and Entertainment Weekly as well as AOL and Coca-Cola Enterprises, Hauser centers her career guidance around six main actions:Fall in love with your careerDesign your career action planCreate time and spaceKnow your valueBuild your dream teamReflect and resetEach chapter starts with practical advice and includes prompts and exercises to help readers create their own personal career action plans. Palate-cleansing meditations and coloring breaks conclude each chapter, offering chances for calming reflection. Through simple, inspiring, and actionable tools, Embrace the Work, Love Your Career teaches women to be empowered to focus on the things that truly matter, set boundaries and, ultimately, realize their full potential.PRAISE FOR FRAN HAUSER:Named one of the "6 Most Powerful Women in NYC's Tech Scene" by Refinery29 "Is it possible to be both kind and a total badass? Yes—and Fran Hauser tells us how." — goop "Fran Hauser turns the 'nice girl' notion on its head."— Forbes "Fran gets into the mess—and gets specific—explaining how she has learned to handle all kinds of uncomfortable moments with authenticity and grace" — Refinery29

    These topics lie at the heart of many exciting areas of contemporary science and engineering - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics, and cryptography. This textbook introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems, such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. A toolbox of inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods, and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications of these tools to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. The final part of the book describes the state of the art in error-correcting codes, including low-density parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes -- the twenty-first century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, David MacKay's groundbreaking book is ideal for self-learning and for undergraduate or graduate courses. Interludes on crosswords, evolution, and sex provide entertainment along the way. In sum, this is a textbook on information, communication, and coding for a new generation of students, and an unparalleled entry point into these subjects for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering, and machine learning.

    Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.

    Whether you are looking to rev up your real estate business, deciding whether to specialize in commercial or residential real estate, or just interested in refining specific skills, this book is for you. This no-nonsense guide shows you the fun and easy way to become a successful real estate agent. It provides expert advice on acquiring the skills needed to excel and the respect and recognition you'll gain through making sales and generating profit. Soon you'll have all the tools you need to:Prospect your way to listings and sales Build a referral-based clientele Work with expired and FSBO listings Plan and host a successful open house Present and close listing contracts Market yourself and your properties online and in print Negotiate contracts and avoid derailment Stake your competitive position Achieve excellent relationships with clients Spend less time to earn more money This guide features tips and tricks for working with buyers, must-haves for a successful real estate agent, and common pitfalls that can be avoided. Also included is a list of Web sites for real estate agents that are valuable resources for success. With Success as a Real Estate Agent For Dummies, you'll discover how to acquire key skills and get on track for a successful career!

    This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting datasets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you've found it.Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general -- all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application. This book explains:Collaborative filtering techniques that enable online retailers to recommend products or media Methods of clustering to detect groups of similar items in a large dataset Search engine features -- crawlers, indexers, query engines, and the PageRank algorithm Optimization algorithms that search millions of possible solutions to a problem and choose the best one Bayesian filtering, used in spam filters for classifying documents based on word types and other features Using decision trees not only to make predictions, but to model the way decisions are made Predicting numerical values rather than classifications to build price models Support vector machines to match people in online dating sites Non-negative matrix factorization to find the independent features in a dataset Evolving intelligence for problem solving -- how a computer develops its skill by improving its own code the more it plays a game Each chapter includes exercises for extending the algorithms to make them more powerful. Go beyond simple database-backed applications and put the wealth of Internet data to work for you. "Bravo! I cannot think of a better way for a developer to first learn these algorithms and methods, nor can I think of a better way for me (an old AI dog) to reinvigorate my knowledge of the details."-- Dan Russell, Google "Toby's book does a great job of breaking down the complex subject matter of machine-learning algorithms into practical, easy-to-understand examples that can be directly applied to analysis of social interaction across the Web today. If I had this book two years ago, it would have saved precious time going down some fruitless paths."-- Tim Wolters, CTO, Collective Intellect

    

    During the summer of his senior year at college, while earning a B.A. in Economics and Political Science, David P. Spears spent eighty hours undercover as a panhandler. Systematically recording every transaction at the exit ramp, Spears captured a rarely seen picture of how modern urban charity works.This book is the record of his adventures, part economic research, part investigative journalism. Both the numbers and the stories behind the numbers provide answers to the questions we’ve all been wondering: Who gives more to panhandlers—men or women? What percentage of drivers roll down their windows to donate? And most important of all, how much can a panhandler earn per hour?Get out your bi-weekly pay stub—by the end of this book you’ll know if you make more or less than the guy with the cardboard sign.

    It provides a transition from elementary calculus to advanced courses in real and complex function theory and introduces the reader to some of the abstract thinking that pervades modern analysis.

    It's compelling, it's straightforward, and it can change your life. Zombie Economics is for anyone in the midst of financial uncertainty, a place where carelessness and timidity will cost you. From the creeping spread of unpaid bills to the lumbering advance of creditors, Zombie Economics confronts the biggest threats to your personal economy, takes aim, and then takes them down. Specific chapters include: A Basement Full of Ammo Saving yourself by saving money They'll Eat the Fat Ones First Using fitness as a financial asset Shooting Dad in the Head Ending your relationships with the financially infected With simple, easy-to-use techniques for identifying-and eliminating-your financial weak spots, Zombie Economics turns victims into survivors. Watch a Video"

    He had gambled and won, but his volatility and reluctance to pay his debts were making him enemies. He lived the high life as only a young man would, buying luxury homes, private jets, sports cars and football teams, and splurging massively to build a horseracing empire.But Tinkler’s dreams had extended beyond even his resources, and his business model worked only in a rising market. When coal prices slumped in 2012, Tinkler had no cash flow to service his massive borrowings and no allies to help him recover. Within months he was trying desperately to stave off his creditors, large and small, and fighting to save his businesses and his fortune.In this impressive biography, leading business writer Paddy Manning tells the story of Tinkler’s meteoric rise to wealth, and captures the drama of his equally rapid downfall.‘Some might see it as a handbook on how to go from broke to billionaire in a matter of years … Others might see it as a morality tale about the canker at the heart of the consumerist, aspirational politics peddled by our leaders for the past few decades.’ —Sydney Morning Herald‘Paddy Manning’s Boganaire: The Rise and Fall of Nathan Tinkler is a rollicking tale, which works on our sense of schadenfreude.’ —Chloe Hooper, the Monthly‘Boganaire is much more than a book for readers of business literature. It provides an insight into a bigger and more important subject than Nathan Tinkler: it shows how the easy prosperity from resource riches might be changing our culture and values for the worse.’ — the Australian‘The richly detailed book lays Tinkler’s life bare, from his early days working in Newcastle’s coal mines through to his triumphant deals with Macarthur Coal and Whitehaven, and his spectacular fall from grace.’ —BRWPaddy Manning is one of Australia’s most respected journalists, with fifteen years’ experience including a decade on the business desks of the Sydney Morning Herald, the Australian Financial Review and the Australian – a period in which he was highly commended in the business category of the Walkley Awards and was a three-time category winner in the prestigious Citigroup Journalism Awards for Excellence. His first book, What the Frack: everything you need to know about coal seam gas, was published in 2012.

    The authors help students learn key sociological concepts through real research examples related to the dynamic interplay of race, class, gender, and other social variables.