Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    . . people listen. "If people want to improve their investing skills, it has to help to study how the Master does it. This short book outlines Buffett's philosophy and techniques." --Peter S. Lynch, Fidelity Investments"Common sense with a deft irony . . ." --John C. Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group and author, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing"It was Warren Buffett's thoughts and philosophy that first captivated investors. Janet Lowe has done us all a great service by collecting and arranging Warren Buffett's wit and wisdom in an easy-to-read and enjoyable book." --Robert G. Hagstrom, Portfolio Manager, Legg Mason Growth Trust mutual fund, and author, The Warren Buffett Way, Second Edition"A must-read. Buffett's wit and wisdom is a roadmap for anyone looking to succeed in business, investing, and life." --Steve Halpern, Editor, www.thestockadvisors.com

    Not Sure What the Future Holds? No Problem. It’s hard not to be worried about the future, especially if you just lost your job, are trying to plan your career, or are suddenly missing thousands of dollars from your retirement account.In Optionality, finance columnist Richard Meadows lays out a time-tested strategy for not only becoming resilient to shocks, but positioning yourself to profit from an unpredictable world.Learn how to:• Find investment opportunities with open-ended upside, and maximise the chance of a 'moonshot' success• Make life-changing choices under conditions of uncertainty• Achieve the kind of financial freedom that lets you live life on your own terms• Protect against disaster, build support networks, and create a safety buffer of resilience in every area of life• Develop a systems approach to making your own luckOptionality is the key to navigating an uncertain world.In this entertaining and insightful debut, Meadows delivers a timely message: optionality has never been so valuable, and only those who have it will survive and thrive.

    Wonderfully applicable to everything in life, and funny as hell.’ Nassim Nicholas TalebTo be brilliant, you have to be irrationalWhy is Red Bull so popular – even though everyone hates the taste? Why do countdown boards on platforms take away the pain of train delays? And why do we prefer stripy toothpaste?We think we are rational creatures. Economics and business rely on the assumption that we make logical decisions based on evidence.But we aren’t, and we don’t.In many crucial areas of our lives, reason plays a vanishingly small part. Instead we are driven by unconscious desires, which is why placebos are so powerful. We are drawn to the beautiful, the extravagant and the absurd – from lavish wedding invitations to tiny bottles of the latest fragrance. So if you want to influence people’s choices you have to bypass reason. The best ideas don’t make rational sense: they make you feel more than they make you think.Rory Sutherland is the Ogilvy advertising legend whose TED Talks have been viewed nearly 7 million times. In his first book he blends cutting-edge behavioural science, jaw-dropping stories and a touch of branding magic, on his mission to turn us all into idea alchemists. The big problems we face every day, whether as an individual or in society, could very well be solved by letting go of logic and embracing the irrational.

    If you’ve ever sought a job or hired someone, applied to college or guided your child into a good kindergarten, asked someone out on a date or been asked out, you’ve participated in a kind of market. Most of the study of economics deals with commodity markets, where the price of a good connects sellers and buyers. But what about other kinds of “goods,” like a spot in the Yale freshman class or a position at Google? This is the territory of matching markets, where “sellers” and “buyers” must choose each other, and price isn’t the only factor determining who gets what.Alvin E. Roth is one of the world’s leading experts on matching markets. He has even designed several of them, including the exchange that places medical students in residencies and the system that increases the number of kidney transplants by better matching donors to patients. In Who Gets What — And Why, Roth reveals the matching markets hidden around us and shows how to recognize a good match and make smarter, more confident decisions.

    As a best-selling author and the world's #1 expert of selling, Jeffrey Gitomer knows a thing or two about success. Here he has compiled some of his proven principles for success and shows readers how to apply these to their lives. While these techniques are most readily applied to sales, the skills that Jeffrey teaches go far beyond that: they are the skills needed to thrive in one's career and life. And when the reader has mastered the principles, Jeffrey goes one step further and challenges the reader not just to do what they say, but to "live" the principles. He offers simple steps to put (and keep) them in practice in every aspect of life.

    Now is the time to learn to target where the market is going to be, not where it has been, so you can invest successfully. Financial expert John Mauldin makes a powerful, almost irrefutable case regarding the future direction of the markets. He then details a new approach to investing that will allow you to adjust to the new reality of investing. You'll consider options beyond traditional stock portfolios as you learn to choose between the stable and secure investments that will enable you to profit in turbulent markets. Buy your copy of this must-read investment roadmap today.

    The selections range from the earliest economic thought to such towering volumes as Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, Thomas Malthus's Essay on the Principle of Population, David Ricardo's Principles of Political Economy, and John Maynard Keynes's The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Acting as "a docent, not merely an editor," he takes the reader through the core arguments with "brilliantly clear commentary" (New York Times Book Review).

    

    And having more than one person to help decide is good because the group benefits from the collective knowledge of all of its members, and this results in better decisions. Right?Back to reality. We’ve all been involved in group decisions—and they’re hard. And they often turn out badly. Why? Many blame bad decisions on “groupthink” without a clear idea of what that term really means.Now, Nudge coauthor Cass Sunstein and leading decision-making scholar Reid Hastie shed light on the specifics of why and how group decisions go wrong—and offer tactics and lessons to help leaders avoid the pitfalls and reach better outcomes. In the first part of the book, they explain in clear and fascinating detail the distinct problems groups run into:• They often amplify, rather than correct, individual errors in judgment• They fall victim to cascade effects, as members follow what others say or do• They become polarized, adopting more extreme positions than the ones they began with• They emphasize what everybody knows instead of focusing on critical information that only a few people knowIn the second part of the book, the authors turn to straightforward methods and advice for making groups smarter. These approaches include silencing the leader so that the views of other group members can surface, rethinking rewards and incentives to encourage people to reveal their own knowledge, thoughtfully assigning roles that are aligned with people’s unique strengths, and more.With examples from a broad range of organizations—from Google to the CIA—and written in an engaging and witty style, Wiser will not only enlighten you; it will help your team and your organization make better decisions—decisions that lead to greater success.

    Now, award-winning Tribune Company personal finance columnist Gregory Karp shows how to do just that. This book isn't about depriving yourself: you don't have to become a financial anorexic, and you won't have to start dumpster diving! Instead, Gregory Karp shows how to build real, long-lasting wealth by plugging the money leaks you're barely even aware of, and making sure you spend with a purpose. Drawing on everything he's learned writing his prize-winning weekly column, Karp reveals surprisingly painless, little-known techniques for eliminating wasteful spending in every area of your financial life. Karp shows how to spend on what you really care about, not what you don't... understand the real value of comparison shopping...save money in giving gifts without becoming a cheapskate. Karp shows how to slash your phone bill... spend less on food without changing what you like to eat... eliminate spending leaks in insurance, education, entertainment and beyond. From the clothes you wear to the cars you drive, Living Rich by Spending Smart will help you build a life that's truly rich, because it's truly financially secure.

    Numerous examples throughout provide readers with real-life applications of the concepts of analog and digital communications systems, while chapter-end questions and problems give them a chance to test and review their understanding of fundamental and key topics. Modern digital and data communications systems, microwave radio communications systems, satellite communications systems, and optical fiber communications systems. Cellular and PCS telephone systems coverage presents the latest and most innovative technological advancements being made in cellular communication systems. Optical fiber communications chapter includes new sections on light sources, optical power, optical sources and link budget. Current topics include trellis encoding, CCITT modem recommendations, PCM line speed, extended superframe format, wavelength division multiplexing, Kepler's laws, Clark orbits, limits of visibility, Satellite Radio Navigation and Navstar GPS. For the study of electronic communications systems.

    

    Simply by designing your product the right way, you can build a flourishing business from scratch. No advertising or marketing budget, no need for a sales force, and venture capitalists will flock to throw money at you. Many of the most successful Web 2.0 companies, including MySpace, YouTube, eBay, and rising stars like Twitter and Flickr, are prime examples of what journalist Adam L. Penenberg calls a "viral loop"--to use it, you have to spread it. After all, what's the sense of being on Facebook if none of your friends are? The result: Never before has there been the potential to create wealth this fast, on this scale, and starting with so little. In this game-changing must-read, Penenberg tells the fascinating story of the entrepreneurs who first harnessed the unprecedented potential of viral loops to create the successful online businesses--some worth billions of dollars--that we have all grown to rely on. The trick is that they created something people really want, so much so that their customers happily spread the word about their product for them. All kinds of businesses--from the smallest start-ups to nonprofit organizations to the biggest multinational corporations--can use the paradigm-busting power of viral loops to enable their business through technology. Viral Loop is a must-read for any entrepreneur or business interested in uncorking viral loops to benefit their bottom line.