Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    This book provides the first complete identification guides to the birds of this teeming tropical paradise. It gives descriptions of 820 regional species, illustrated in 88 specially commissioned color plates accompanied by notes detailing distinctive features and habitats. Entries cover nomenclature, plumage, markings, voice, global range, distribution and regional status, habits, and diet. The main text gives practical information on where to find many exotic species, citing major birdwatching locations. Introductory chapters discuss habitats, climate, land-use, and conservation concerns. Professional ornithologists and amateur bird watchers alike will find this the indispensable bird guide for eastern Malaysia and western Indonesia for many years to come. It is also an unrivalled source of information for casual travellers and ecotourists.

    Download issues at no extra cost from Archived Items. The Economist is the premier source for the analysis of world business and current affairs, providing authoritative insight and opinion on international news, world politics, business, finance, science and technology, as well as overviews of cultural trends and regular Special reports on industries and countries. Established in 1843 to campaign against the protectionist corn laws, The Economist remains, in the second half of its second century, true to the liberal principles of its founder. James Wilson, a hat maker from the small Scottish town of Hawick, believed in free trade, internationalism and minimum interference by government, especially in the affairs of the market. The Economist also takes a fiercely independent stance on social issues, from gay marriage to the legalisation of drugs, but its main service to its readers is as a global newspaper: To uncover new ideas from all around the world. The Kindle Edition of The Economist contains all of the articles and graphics found in the print edition, but will not include all photos. For your convenience, issues are auto-delivered wirelessly to your Kindle each Friday at the same time the print edition hits the newsstand.

    Daniel G. Amen shares ten simple steps to boost your brain to help youlive longer, look younger, and dramatically decrease your risk for Alzheimer’s disease.Over the last twenty years at Amen Clinics, Dr. Amen has performed more than 70,000 brain scans on patients from ninety different countries. His brain imaging work has taughthim that our brains typically become less active with age and we become more vulnerable tomemory problems and depression. Yet, one of the most exciting lessons he has learned is thatwith a little forethought and a brain-smart plan, you can slow, or even reverse, the aging process in the brain.Based on the approach that has helped thousands of people at Amen Clinics along with the most cutting-edge research, Dr. Amen’s breakthrough, easy-to-follow antiaging program shows you how to:• Boost your memory, mood, attention,and energy• Decrease your risk for Alzheimer’s andother forms of dementia• Eat to live longer• Reduce the outward signs of aging andmake your skin more beautiful• Promote the healing of brain damage dueto injury, strokes, substance abuse, andtoxic exposure• Dramatically increase your chances ofliving longer and looking younger••And much more.By adopting the brain healthy strategies detailed in Use Your Brain to Change Your Age, you can outsmart your genes, put the brakes on aging, and even reverse the aging process. If you change your brain, you can change your life—and your age.

    Visit www.psych-k_com for more information.In this book you will discover:Why your life doesn't always look as smart as you are.Why you don't always do the right thing, even when you know the right thing to do.Why your subconscious beliefs determine the limits of what you can achieve.Why trying "smarter" is better than trying "harder."Why changing yourself can change the world… and why that’s easier than you think!

    

    From 5K to ultramarathon, a power meter can make you faster—but only if you know how to use it. Just viewing your numbers is not enough; you can only become a faster, stronger, more efficient runner when you know what your key numbers mean for your workouts, races, and your season-long training. In Run with Power, TrainingBible coach Jim Vance offers the comprehensive guide you need to find the speed you want.Run with Power demystifies the data and vocabulary so you can find and understand your most important numbers. You’ll set your Running Power Zones so you can begin training using 8 power-based training plans for 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon. Vance shows you how you can compare wattage, heart rate, pace, and perceived exertion to gain the maximum insight into your performances, how you respond to training, and how you can train more effectively. Run with Power will revolutionize how you train and race. Armed with Vance’s guidance, you can train more specifically for races, smooth your running technique, accurately measure your fitness, predict a fitness plateau, monitor injuries, know exactly how hard you’re training, get more fitness from every workout, recover fully, perfect your tapers, warm up without wasting energy, pace your race on any terrain, know when to open the throttle, and create an unprecedented picture of yourself as an athlete.If you’re just glancing at the number on your wrist or computer monitor, you’ve got a lot more speed potential. Knowledge is power and understanding your power numbers can open the gate to new methods and new PRs. Run with Power introduces the use of power meters to the sport of running and will show you how to break through to all-new levels of performance.Key concepts explored in Run with Power: 3/9 Test, 30-minute Time Trial Test, Running Functional Threshold Power (rFTPw), Running Functional Threshold Pace (rFTPa), Averaged and Normalized Power (NP), Intensity Factor (IF), Peak Power, Variability Index, Efficiency Index (EI), speed per watt, Vance’s Power Zones for Running, Training Stress Score (TSS), and Periodization with Power. Includes 6 testing methods and 8 power-based training schedules and workouts for 5K, 10K, half-marathon, and marathon.

    From humorous fishing excursions and frightening bear encounters to snow blinding blizzards and quirky characters, they come face to face with the unpredictable Mother Nature and learn the value of friendship, survival, and solitude in a picturesque but harsh life by the sea. Packed with adventures, challenges, and true Alaskan lifestyle.

    It is the only behaviour over which we have enough control. Creating a seismic shift in behaviour across a school requires adult behaviour to be adjusted with absolute consistency. This creates a stable platform on which each school can build its authentic practice. It will result in shifts in daily routines, in how to deal with the angriest learners, in restorative practice and in how we appreciate exceptional behaviour. The book is peppered with case studies from schools across five continents, from the most challenging urban schools to the most privileged schools in the world. This is exceptional behaviour management and leading-edge practice. The approach is practical, transformative and rippling with respect for staff and learners.

    Step-by-step she leads you through: 1) Exercises to help you to break the habit of the behavior. 2) Techniques to reduce stress and anxiety naturally, thus reducing the body’s need to pick. 3) How to release negative thoughts and emotions holding you back.4) Lifestyle changes to restore physiological balance, including which foods to avoid, which to eat more of, and natural supplements to help you stop. This comprehensive guide is a lifesaver for those suffering from skin picking, and is invaluable also for health professionals interested in learning how to help their patients who pick.

    Created through a "student-tested, faculty-approved" review process with over 150 students and faculty, PSYCH 2 is an engaging and accessible solution to accommodate the diverse lifestyles of today's learners.

    The text covers the neuroanatomy that medical and other healthcare students need, with expanded coverage of neurophysiology and inclusion of clinical content providing real-life application of neuroanatomy and neurophysiologic concepts to clinical neurologic disorders. Its readability and enhanced full-color illustrations make it a favorite among both students and faculty.Provides a single-author approach for a more consistent, readable text.Contains summary statement headings to help you find what you're looking for within the text.Provides an outline introducing each chapter to help students organize and stay focused as they learn.Includes appealing four-color, computerized three-dimensional images of the brain and brain structures fully integrated with the text.Complements an Electronic Image Bank that is also available separately.Includes more coverage of neurobiology and neurophysiology.Gives more clinical content, including many images depicting neurologic disorders.Features an expanded section on higher cortical function.Features an expanded section on learning and memory.Contains a new chapter on the development, maintenance, and repair of neural connections-an explosive area of research in neuroscience.Supplies a glossary of key terms.Replaces many of the older figures with new, computer-generated illustrations.

    French, Portuguese and Arabic versions are soon to be released. The Nemechek Protocol™ for Autism and Developmental Disorders outlines Dr. Patrick M. Nemechek’s clear and concise description about the present scientific basis for autism and many childhood developmental disorders. His unique but simple treatment is the most talked about approach for autism and developmental disorders of the last decade. The Nemechek Protocol™ finally offers hope that children around the world afflicted with these conditions may begin on the path of neurological development and recovery.

    It will shock, surprise and astound the reader. Paul Harrison has a unique set of skills and experiences based upon his life in the British police service and later as a crime writer. Now, for the first time ever, you can read of his gripping experiences as a profiler dealing with the world's most notorious serial killers and violent offenders. Mind Games is a forensic examination of the psyche of the world's most vicious and evil offenders in their own words, just as they related it. It's an exploration into the darkest recesses of the criminal mind and possibly the most in-depth examination of the serial killer phenomenon ever published. Includes exclusive interviews with Charles Manson, John Wayne Gacy, Kenneth Harrison, Henry Lee Lucas, Aileen Wuornos, Ted Bundy, Carl Watts, Donald 'Pee Wee' Gaskins, Donald Neilson, Kenneth McDuff, Jeffrey Dahmer, Joe 'The Cannibal' Metheney.

    They use plays that are outdated, they make the same mistakes over and over, and they leave heaps of money on the table. This book was written to help you STOP! making those same mistakes. STOP! making the same mistakes as your opponents. STOP! getting crushed in your game. STOP! leaving stacks of chips on the table.