Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Verification that algorithms work is emphasized more than their complexity. An effective use of examples, and huge number of interesting exercises, demonstrate the topics of trees and distance, matchings and factors, connectivity and paths, graph coloring, edges and cycles, and planar graphs. For those who need to learn to make coherent arguments in the fields of mathematics and computer science.

    One can trace its roots to the Calculus of Variations and the work of Euler and Lagrange. This natural and reasonable approach to mathematical programming covers numerical methods for finite-dimensional optimization problems. It begins with very simple ideas progressing through more complicated concepts, concentrating on methods for both unconstrained and constrained optimization.

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.

    Steve Olson followed the six 2001 contestants from the intense tryouts to the Olympiad’s nail-biting final rounds to discover not only what drives these extraordinary kids but what makes them both unique and typical. In the process he provides fascinating insights into the science of intelligence and learning and, finally, the nature of genius. Brilliant, but defying all the math-nerd stereotypes, these teens want to excel in whatever piques their curiosity, and they are curious about almost everything — music, games, politics, sports, literature. One team member is ardent about both water polo and creative writing. Another plays four musical instruments. For fun and entertainment during breaks, the Olympians invent games of mind-boggling difficulty. Though driven by the glory of winning this ultimate math contest, they are in many ways not so different from other teenagers, finding pure joy in indulging their personal passions. Beyond the the Olympiad, Olson sheds light on many questions, from why Americans feel so queasy about math, to why so few girls compete in the subject, to whether or not talent is innate. Inside the cavernous gym where the competition takes place, Count Down uncovers a fascinating subculture and its engaging, driven inhabitants.

    Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

    Starting from the basics of probability, the authors develop the theory of statistical inference using techniques, definitions, and concepts that are statistical and are natural extensions and consequences of previous concepts. This book can be used for readers who have a solid mathematics background. It can also be used in a way that stresses the more practical uses of statistical theory, being more concerned with understanding basic statistical concepts and deriving reasonable statistical procedures for a variety of situations, and less concerned with formal optimality investigations.

    The applications and computations in operations research are emphasized. Significantly revised, this text streamlines the coverage of the theory, applications, and computations of operations research. Numerical examples are effectively used to explain complex mathematical concepts. A separate chapter of fully analyzed applications aptly demonstrates the diverse use of OR. The popular commercial and tutorial software AMPL, Excel, Excel Solver, and Tora are used throughout the book to solve practical problems and to test theoretical concepts. New materials include Markov chains, TSP heuristics, new LP models, and a totally new simplex-based approach to LP sensitivity analysis.

    

    You’re thirteen now. I was eight when I got married. You’ll never look this beautiful ever again.”“I will Ammi, when I wear a school uniform.”If you like thrillers, this micro tale is for you-I always assumed that my neighbour’s daughter knew the word ‘Eight’ only until my dog went missing and she said ‘Nine’.And if you like six-word stories, this tale is for you-Woke up in hospital. Failed again.In fact, there are 100 such small tales that will have a big impact on you.So what are you waiting for? Scroll to the top of this page, buy the book and start reading today.Rafaa's micro tales are absolute gems. The journey is short but its impact is everlasting. This one deserves to be read by all.Sanhita BaruahAuthor of ‘The Art of Grieving’ and ‘The Art of Letting Go’Are you interested in unconventional storytelling? How about a story where the beginning, middle and the end are on the same page? A narrative that makes you frown on page 1, nod in agreement on page 2 and chuckle on page 3?How about reading short fiction then? I highly recommend Small is Big by Rafaa Dalvi. The long and short of fiction in endearing small portions!Rickie KhoslaAuthor of ‘The Imperative Subterfuge’ and ‘Pretty Vile Girl’The book has something for everyone. It has humor – a few of slap stick variety, playing on puns, it has punch where you get a most unexpected twist, it has philosophy, it has romance and it has horror – stories that chill your spine.T.F. CarthickAuthor of ‘Carthick’s Unfairy Tales’ and ‘More Unfairy Tales’About the Author:Rafaa Dalvi tries to escape from the mundane with words and contemplates about befriending the voices in his head. He dreams about changing the world, one smile at a time.Already published numerous times, his stories can be read in the anthologies – Curtain Call (editor), Kaleidoscope, Myriad Tales, and many more. He has also written three volumes of ‘Small is Big’, which is a collection of 100 micro tales. He’s the recipient of Indian Bloggers League Booker Prize 2013.

    Adam Bascom trips over a body in Gressington churchyard, he never imagines it will change the whole direction of his life. As a recently-qualified physician trying to establish a practice in a small market town in north Norfolk, Adam should be devoting all his energy to his business. But it soon becomes clear that the authorities are intent on making sure the death is accepted as an accident and refuse any deeper investigation. Adam’s curiosity and sense of justice cannot accept this. He knows there are many unanswered questions about the death, but he has no standing that would allow him to become involved formally. Instead, he uses friends, old and new, unexpected contacts and even his own mother to help him get to the truth. Set against the turbulence of late-Georgian England, a country on the brink of war with Revolutionary France, the book reveals a land where spies keep constant watch on everyone the government deems ‘undesirable’, religion is polarised between the established church and a mass of dissenting sects, and the perennial ‘Irish question’ has at last spilled over into outright terrorism. Bad weather, poor harvests and enclosure have driven many people in the countryside into abject poverty. Only the smugglers along the coast offer regular and highly-paid ‘work’ helping to unload contraband. Yet here too, the Revenue’s Riding Officers, backed up by troops of dragoons, are waging an increasingly successful campaign to stamp out the major gangs. Adam must thread his way through all of this, encountering many new demands along the way, from a family torn apart by religious bigotry, and a teenage thief turned informer, to a secret section of The Alien Office, a government department dedicated to keeping a close eye on anyone likely to prove a threat to the realm. As he becomes more and more essential to the government’s efforts to combat internal dissension and prepare for war, Adam finds he must draw on all his medical and personal skills to bring the case to a successful conclusion.

    Describing experiments that show that human infants have a rudimentary number sense, Stanislas Dehaene suggests that this sense is as basic as our perception of color, and that it is wired into the brain. Dehaene shows that it was the invention of symbolic systems of numerals that started us on the climb to higher mathematics. A fascinating look at the crossroads where numbers and neurons intersect, The Number Sense offers an intriguing tour of how the structure of the brain shapes our mathematical abilities, and how our mathematics opens up a window on the human mind.

    No, hang on, let's make this interesting. Between zero and infinity. Even if you stick to the whole numbers, there are a lot to choose from - an infinite number in fact. Throw in decimal fractions and infinity suddenly gets an awful lot bigger (is that even possible?) And then there are the negative numbers, the imaginary numbers, the irrational numbers like pi which never end. It literally never ends.The world of numbers is indeed strange and beautiful. Among its inhabitants are some really notable characters - pi, e, the "imaginary" number i and the famous golden ratio to name just a few. Prime numbers occupy a special status. Zero is very odd indeed: is it a number, or isn't it?How Numbers Work takes a tour of this mind-blowing but beautiful realm of numbers and the mathematical rules that connect them. Not only that, but take a crash course on the biggest unsolved problems that keep mathematicians up at night, find out about the strange and unexpected ways mathematics influences our everyday lives, and discover the incredible connection between numbers and reality itself. ABOUT THE SERIESNew Scientist Instant Expert books are definitive and accessible entry points to the most important subjects in science; subjects that challenge, attract debate, invite controversy and engage the most enquiring minds. Designed for curious readers who want to know how things work and why, the Instant Expert series explores the topics that really matter and their impact on individuals, society, and the planet, translating the scientific complexities around us into language that's open to everyone, and putting new ideas and discoveries into perspective and context.

    That distinction belongs to Gosnell's Babies." — Alexander Nazaryan, The Atlantic Wire"Very well written ... A must-read for anybody who followed this case." — Jake Tapper, CNNIn this chilling tale set against the backdrop of one of the most controversial issues of our times, award-winning journalist Steve Volk tells the decades-long saga of Kermit Gosnell — the abortion doctor whose clinic in a poor section of Philadelphia was revealed to be a house of horrors.Volk — the only journalist to speak to Gosnell since his conviction and imprisonment — brings the eccentric doctor to life, detailing his past in the early days of the abortion-rights movement and getting him to reveal, for the first time ever, why he did what he did. Was Gosnell a monster, or something else?Volk's powerful storytelling gives us a definitive understanding of a complex character, a horrific case, and a divisive issue.

    In this book, Chris Bernhardt offers an introduction to quantum computing that is accessible to anyone who is comfortable with high school mathematics. He explains qubits, entanglement, quantum teleportation, quantum algorithms, and other quantum-related topics as clearly as possible for the general reader. Bernhardt, a mathematician himself, simplifies the mathematics as much as he can and provides elementary examples that illustrate both how the math works and what it means.Bernhardt introduces the basic unit of quantum computing, the qubit, and explains how the qubit can be measured; discusses entanglement--which, he says, is easier to describe mathematically than verbally--and what it means when two qubits are entangled (citing Einstein's characterization of what happens when the measurement of one entangled qubit affects the second as "spooky action at a distance"); and introduces quantum cryptography. He recaps standard topics in classical computing--bits, gates, and logic--and describes Edward Fredkin's ingenious billiard ball computer. He defines quantum gates, considers the speed of quantum algorithms, and describes the building of quantum computers. By the end of the book, readers understand that quantum computing and classical computing are not two distinct disciplines, and that quantum computing is the fundamental form of computing. The basic unit of computation is the qubit, not the bit.