It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This bookdescribes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actualfinancial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents models of such markets. These models explain the available financial data more accurately than the efficient marketshypothesis, and generate new predictions about security prices. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

    As a guy who barely made a living as a river guide, I considered the whole process pretty impenetrable, and I was convinced that to do it right you had to make it a full-time job. Me, I was more interested in having full-time fun.So I was tempted to do what you’re probably doing right now: letting some mutual fund manager worry about growing your nest egg. Let me tell you why that decision could one day make you absolutely miserable. The fact is, because of natural market cycles, the mutual fund industry is likely to soon be facing twenty years of flat returns. That means that if you’ve got your nest egg tucked away in funds—especially the type found in most 401ks—your egg won’t get much bigger than it is now. Translation: Get ready for a retirement filled with lots of cold cuts, plenty of quality TV-watching time, and a place to live that’s too small to accommodate your visiting kids.In this book I’ll show you how I turned $1,000 into $1 million in only five years, and then proceeded to make many millions more. I came to investing as a person who wasn’t great at math, possessed zero extra cash, and wanted a life—not an extra three hours of work to do every day.Fortunately, I was introduced to The Rule.Rule #1, as famed investor Warren Buffett will tell you, is don’t lose money. Through an intriguing process that I’ll clarify in this book, not losing money results in making more money than you ever imagined. What it comes down to is buying shares of companies only when the numbers—and the intangibles—are on your side. If that sounds too good to be true, it’s because the mind-set I’ll be introducing you to leads not to bets but to certainties. Believe me, if there were anything genius-level about this, I’d still be a river guide collecting unemployment much of the year.Part of the secret is thinking of yourself as a business owner rather than a stock investor. Part is taking advantage of today’s new Internet tools, which drastically reduce the “homework factor.” (We’re talking a few minutes, tops.) Part is knowing the only five numbers that really count in valuing a potential investment. And part—maybe the most important part—is using the risk-free Rule #1 approach to consistently pay a mere 50 cents to buy a dollar’s worth of a business.What I won’t waste your time with is fluff: a lot of vague parables reminding you of what you already know and leaving you exactly where you started. This is the real deal, folks: a start-to-finish, one-baby-step-at-a-time approach that will allow you to retire ten years sooner than you planned, with more creature comforts than you ever imagined.Also available as a Random House AudioBook and eBook.

    A lively, original, and challenging history of stock market speculation from the 17th century to present day.Is your investment in that new Internet stock a sign of stock market savvy or an act of peculiarly American speculative folly? How has the psychology of investing changed--and not changed--over the last five hundred years? In Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world: from the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, to "stockjobbing" in London's Exchange Alley, to the infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720, which prompted Sir Isaac Newton to comment, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."Here are brokers underwriting risks that included highway robbery and the "assurance of female chastity"; credit notes and lottery tickets circulating as money; wise and unwise investors from Alexander Pope and Benjamin Disraeli to Ivan Boesky and Hillary Rodham Clinton.From the Gilded Age to the Roaring Twenties, from the nineteenth century railway mania to the crash of 1929, from junk bonds and the Japanese bubble economy to the day-traders of the Information Era, Devil Take the Hindmost tells a fascinating story of human dreams and folly through the ages.

    Unlike the short-term trading trends that are popular today, Phelps's highly logical, yet radical approach focuses on identifying compounding machines in public markets, buying their stocks, and holding these investments long term for at least ten years. In this indispensable guide, Phelps analyzes what made the big companies of his day so profitable for the diligent, long-term investor. You will learn how to identify and invest in profitable business models without visible growth ceilings that will quickly increase your earnings. Worth its weight in gold (and then some), 100 to 1 in the Stock Market illuminates the way to the path of long-term wealth for you and your heirs. With this classic, yet highly relevant approach, you will pick companies wisely and watch your investments soar! Thomas William Phelps (1902-1992) spent over 40 years in the investing world working as a private investor, columnist, analyst, and financial advisor. His illustrious investing career began just before the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted into the 1970s. In 1927, he began his career with The Wall Street Journal where he was a reporter, news editor, and chief. Beginning in 1936, he edited Barron's National Financial Weekly. From 1949 to 1960, he served as an assistant to the chairman and manager of the economics department at Socony Mobil Oil. Following this venture, he was a partner in the investment firm of Scudder, Stevens & Clark until his retirement in 1970. "One of the five greatest investment books you've never heard of"-- The Daily Reckoning "Of all the books on investing that I've read over the years, 100 to 1 in the stock market one was at once, the most pleasurable and most challenging to my own beliefs."-- Value Walk (ValueWalk.com) "For years we handed out copies of Mr. Phelps book as bonuses."-- Timothy Lutts, Cabot Investing Advice, one of the largest investment advisories and newsletters in the country since 1970

    The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today. It's a tale that features professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a tale of Wall Street's evolution, the power of the market to generate wealth and wreak havoc, and free market capitalism's war with itself.The efficient market hypothesis--long part of academic folklore but codified in the 1960s at the University of Chicago--has evolved into a powerful myth. It has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds and vast new derivatives markets, and the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, and that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all acting on information to outsmart one another, always provide the best judge of a stock's value. That myth is crumbling.Celebrated journalist and columnist Fox introduces a new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Many of them now agree with Yale professor Robert Shiller that the efficient markets theory "represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought." Today the theory has given way to counterintuitive hypotheses about human behavior, psychological models of decision making, and the irrationality of the markets. Investors overreact, underreact, and make irrational decisions based on imperfect data. In his landmark treatment of the history of the world's markets, Fox uncovers the new ideas that may come to drive the market in the century ahead.

    These are stocks that return $100 for every $1 invested. That means a $10,000 investment turns into $1 million. Chris Mayer can help you find them. It sounds like an outrageous quest with a wildly improbable chance of success. But when Mayer studied 100-baggers of the past, definite patterns emerged. In 100-Baggers, you will learn: -The key characteristics of 100-baggers -Why anybody can do this (It is truly an everyman's approach. You don't need an MBA or a finance degree. Some basic financial concepts are all you need.) -A number of crutches or techniques that can help you get more out of your stocks and investing The emphasis is always on the practical, so there are many stories and anecdotes to help illustrate important points. You should read this book if you want to get more out of your stocks. Even if you never get a 100-bagger, this book will help you turn up big winners and keep you away from losers and sleepy stocks that go nowhere. After reading 100-Baggers, you will never look at investing the same way again. It will energize and excite you about what is possible.

    Now, hundreds of thousands of traders and investors around the world can participate in this profitable field.Written by forex expert Kathy Lien, The Little Book of Currency Trading will show you how to effectively invest and trade in today's biggest market. Page by page, she describes the multitude of opportunities possible in the forex market, from short-term price swings to long-term trends, and details practical products that can help you achieve success, such as currency-based ETFs.Explains the forces that drive currencies and provides strategies to profit from them Reveals how you can use various currencies to reduce risk and take advantage of global trends Examines financial vehicles that can help you make money without having to monitor the market every day The Little Book of Currency Trading opens the world of currency trading and investing to anyone interested in entering this dynamic arena.

    Once you learn to tune out the hype and focus on meaningful factors, you can beat the Street. The Motley Fool Investment Guide, completely revised and updated with clear and witty explanations, deciphers all the new information -- from evaluating individual stocks to creating a diverse investment portfolio. David and Tom Gardner have investing ideas for you -- no matter how much time or money you have. This new edition of The Motley Fool Investment Guide is built for today's investor, sophisticate and novice alike, with updated information on: Finding high-growth stocks that will beat the market over the long termIdentifying volatile young companies that traditional valuation measures may missUsing Fool.com and the Internet to locate great sources of useful information

    After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. Now for the first time, all readers can benefit from Marks's wisdom, concentrated into a single volume that speaks to both the amateur and seasoned investor.Informed by a lifetime of experience and study, The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career. Utilizing passages from his memos to illustrate his ideas, Marks teaches by example, detailing the development of an investment philosophy that fully acknowledges the complexities of investing and the perils of the financial world. Brilliantly applying insight to today's volatile markets, Marks offers a volume that is part memoir, part creed, with a number of broad takeaways.Marks expounds on such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Frankly and honestly assessing his own decisions--and occasional missteps--he provides valuable lessons for critical thinking, risk assessment, and investment strategy. Encouraging investors to be "contrarian," Marks wisely judges market cycles and achieves returns through aggressive yet measured action. Which element is the most essential? Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, and each of Marks's subjects proves to be the most important thing.

    This book synthesizes these recent advances and makes them accessible to first-year graduate students. James Hamilton provides the first adequate text-book treatments of important innovations such as vector autoregressions, generalized method of moments, the economic and statistical consequences of unit roots, time-varying variances, and nonlinear time series models. In addition, he presents basic tools for analyzing dynamic systems (including linear representations, autocovariance generating functions, spectral analysis, and the Kalman filter) in a way that integrates economic theory with the practical difficulties of analyzing and interpreting real-world data. Time Series Analysis fills an important need for a textbook that integrates economic theory, econometrics, and new results.The book is intended to provide students and researchers with a self-contained survey of time series analysis. It starts from first principles and should be readily accessible to any beginning graduate student, while it is also intended to serve as a reference book for researchers.-- "Journal of Economics"

    Readers are treated to real, actionable guidance as the promise of behavioral finance is realised and practical applications for everyday investors are delivered.Crosby presents a framework of timeless principles for managing your behavior and your investing process. He begins by outlining ten rules that are the hallmarks of good investor behavior, including 'Forecasting is for Weathermen' and 'If You're Excited, It's Probably a Bad Idea'. He then goes on to introduce a unique new taxonomy of behavioral investment risk that will enable investors and academics alike to understand behavioral risk in a newly coherent and complete way.From here, attention turns to the four ways in which behavioral risk can be combatted and the five equity selection methods investors should harness to take advantage of behaviorally-induced opportunities in the stock market. Throughout, readers are treated to anecdotes, research and graphics that illustrate the lessons in memorable ways. And in highly valuable 'What now?' summaries at the end of each chapter, Crosby provides clear, concise direction on what investors should think, ask and do to benefit from the behavioral research.Dr. Crosby's training as a clinical psychologist and work as an asset manager provide a unique vantage and result in a book that breaks new ground in behavioral finance. You need to follow the laws of wealth to manage your behavior and improve your investing process!

    This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.  As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.  The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

    Material covered includes the difference between stocks and businesses, what constitutes a good business, when to buy and sell stocks, and how to value individual stocks. The book also includes a chapter covering four case studies as well as a supplemental chapter on the pros and cons of real estate versus stock market investing.

    stock market has been rigged for the benefit of insiders. They band together—some of them walking away from seven-figure salaries—to investigate, expose, and reform the insidious new ways that Wall Street generates profits. If you have any contact with the market, even a retirement account, this story is happening to you.

    -- JACK SCHWAGER, bestselling author of Stock Market WizardsMark's book has to be on every investor's bookshelf. It is about the most comprehensive work I have ever read on investing in growth stocks. -- DAVID RYAN, three-time U.S. Investing Champion[Minervini is] one of the most highly respected independent traders of our generation. His experience and past history of savvy market calls is legendary. -- CHARLES KIRK, The Kirk ReportOne of Wall Street's most remarkable success stories. -- BEN POWER, Your Trading EdgeTHE INVESTOR'S GUIDE TO SUPERPERFORMANCE! Dramatically increase your stock market returns with the legendary SEPA system!For the first time ever, U.S. Investing Champion Mark Minervini reveals the proven, time-tested trading system he used to achieve triple-digit returns for five consecutive years, averaging 220% per year for a 33,500% compounded total return.In Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard, Minervini unveils his trademarked stock market method SEPA, which provides outsized returns in virtually every market by combining careful risk management, self-analysis, and perseverance. He explains in detail how to select precise entry points and preserve capital--for consistent triple- digit returns.Whether you're just getting started in the stock market or you're a seasoned pro, Minervini will show how you how to achieve SUPERPERFORMANCE! You'll gain valuable knowledge as he shares lessons, trading truths, and specific tactics--all derived from his 30-year career as one of America's most successful stock traders.Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard teaches you:How to find the best stocks before they make big price gainsHow to avoid costly mistakes made by most investorsHow to manage losses and protect profitsHow to avoid high-risk situationsPrecisely when to buy and when to sellHow to buy an IPOWhy traditional valuation doesn't work for fast-growing SuperperformersExamples of Minervini's personal trades with his commentsWith more than 160 chart examples and numerous case studies proving the remarkable effectiveness of Minervini's methodology, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard puts in your hands one of the most effective and--until now--secretive stock investing systems in the world.MARK MINERVINI has a trademarked stock market method that produces outsized returns in virtually every market. It's called Specific Entry Point Analysis--SEPA--and it has been proven effective for selecting precise entry points, preserving capital and profi ts with even more precise exit points--and consistently producing triple-digit returns.Now, in Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard, Minervini shares--for the fi rst time ever--his coveted methodology with investors like you!