The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    Dr. Doug Erlandson draws on concrete examples of good and bad reasoning from the political and social realm and everyday life to make his points in a sometimes lighthearted but always meaningful way. Here's a Preview of What's in the Book Identifying the differences between good and bad arguments Avoiding fallacies Creating good explanations Assessing probabilities Recognizing that statistics and numbers can lie ˃˃˃ Here's How You Benefit How to Think Clearly gives you the tools you need to critically assess the claims and counterclaims with which you are bombarded by politicians, pundits, commentators and editors, as well as coworkers, friends and family, and will aid you in developing skills to present your view in ways that are clear, coherent, sensible and persuasive. ˃˃˃ Suitable as a classroom text and for independent study How to Think Clearly is easy to understand and suitable for independent study. At the same time it offers the content and intellectual rigor that you would expect in a text for an introductory college-level course in critical thinking. ˃˃˃ What Others Are Saying About How to Think Clearly: A Guide to Critical Thinking Dr. Erlandson has given a wonderful introduction to good critical thinking: how to recognize good and bad arguments, helpful and non-helpful explanations, the ways that numbers can be manipulated. You can tell that he must be a good teacher. (G. Feltner)The author offers a refuge of reason within our culture of disregard for open-mindedness and rational discourse where the popular debate of serious issues or ideas is often a shouting match from the margins. (Cubs Fan)A great read for anyone who is new to logic and critical thinking, or someone who just wants to review and refresh their knowledge. (Paul D.) Scroll up and grab a copy today.

    Aimed at teachers of all kinds, busy people working in complex environments with little time to spare, it is a celebration of great teaching - the joy of it and the intellectual and personal rewards that teaching brings.The core of the book is a guide to making teaching both effective and manageable; it provides an accessible summary of key contemporary evidence-based ideas about teaching and learning and the debates that all teachers should be engaging in. It's a book packed with strategies for making great teaching attainable in the context of real schools.The Learning Rainforest metaphor is an attempt to capture various different elements of our understanding and experience of teaching. Tom's ideas about what constitutes great teaching are drawn from his experiences as a teacher and a school leader over the last 30 years, alongside everything he has read and all the debates he's engaged with during that time.An underlying theme of this book is that a career in teaching is a process of continual personal development and professional learning as is engaging in fundamental debates rage on about the kind of education we value. As you meet each new class and move from school to school, your perspectives shift; your sense of what seems to work adjusts to each new context.In writing this book, Tom is trying to capture some of the journey he's been on. He has learned that it is ok to change your mind. More than that - sometimes it is simply necessary to get your head out of the sand, to change direction; to admit your mistakes.

      Alternating between site visits and brief historical narratives, this guide tells the story of Washington, DC, from its origins to current times. From George Washington’s Mount Vernon to the Kennedy Center, trek through each era of the federal district, on a tour of America’s most beloved sites. Go inside the White House, the only executive home in the world regularly open to the public. Travel to President Lincoln’s Cottage and see where he wrote the Emancipation Proclamation. And visit lesser-known sites, such as the grave of Pierre L’Enfant, the city’s Botanical Gardens, the Old Post Office, and a host of historical homes throughout the capital. This is the only guide you’ll need to curate an unforgettable expedition to our shining city on a hill.

    The author's step-by-step approach makes the strategies easy to implement and help to ensure ongoing success.Hiring effectively is the single greatest long-term contribution to your organization. The only thing worse than having an open position is filling it with the wrong person. The Effective Hiring Manager offers a proven process for solving these problems and helping teams and organizations thrive.The fundamental principles of hiring and interviewing How to create criteria to hire by How to create excellent interview questions How to review resumes How to conduct phone screens How to structure an interview day How to conduct each interview How to capture interview results How to make an offer How to decline a candidate How to onboard candidates Written by Mark Horstman, co-founder of Manager Tools and an expert in training managers, The Effective Hiring Manager is an A to Z handbook to the successful hiring process. The book explores, in helpful detail, what it takes to hire the right person, for the right job, and the right team.

    Our brains, therefore, are designed not just to hunt and gather, but also to help us get ahead socially, often via deception and self-deception. But while we may be self-interested schemers, we benefit by pretending otherwise. The less we know about our own ugly motives, the better - and thus we don't like to talk or even think about the extent of our selfishness. This is "the elephant in the brain." Such an introspective taboo makes it hard for us to think clearly about our nature and the explanations for our behavior. The aim of this book, then, is to confront our hidden motives directly - to track down the darker, unexamined corners of our psyches and blast them with floodlights. Then, once everything is clearly visible, we can work to better understand ourselves: Why do we laugh? Why are artists sexy? Why do we brag about travel? Why do we prefer to speak rather than listen?Our unconscious motives drive more than just our private behavior; they also infect our venerated social institutions such as Art, School, Charity, Medicine, Politics, and Religion. In fact, these institutions are in many ways designed to accommodate our hidden motives, to serve covert agendas alongside their "official" ones. The existence of big hidden motives can upend the usual political debates, leading one to question the legitimacy of these social institutions, and of standard policies designed to favor or discourage them. You won't see yourself - or the world - the same after confronting the elephant in the brain.

    As a result, you will be able to focus on enjoying reading, delighting in your improved range of vocabulary and grasp of the language, without ever feeling overwhelmed or frustrated. From science fiction to fantasy, to crime and thrillers, Short Stories in Spanish for Beginners will make learning Spanish easy and enjoyable.

    In The New Childhood, Jordan Shapiro provides a hopeful counterpoint to the fearful hand-wringing that has come to define our narrative around children and technology. Drawing on groundbreaking research in economics, psychology, philosophy, and education, The New Childhood shows how technology is guiding humanity toward a bright future in which our children will be able to create new, better models of global citizenship, connection, and community. Shapiro offers concrete, practical advice on how to parent and educate children effectively in a connected world, and provides tools and techniques for using technology to engage with kids and help them learn and grow. He compares this moment in time to other great technological revolutions in humanity's past and presents entertaining micro-histories of cultural fixtures: the sandbox, finger painting, the family dinner, and more. But most importantly, The New Childhood paints a timely, inspiring and positive picture of today's children, recognizing that they are poised to create a progressive, diverse, meaningful, and hyper-connected world that today's adults can only barely imagine.

    In a short time, it can enhance your skills in reading, writing, learning, note taking, brainstorming, planning, productivity, and so much more.

    

    In this short and powerful book, renowned peace activist Michael Nagler challenges this assertion, demonstrating that nonviolence succeeds through aggressively strategic and sustained action. It demands greater courage and discipline than violence.Distilling the core theories of nonviolence and drawing deeply from the lives of leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr., this action-oriented handbook offers both guidance for nonviolent resistance and advice for building constructive movements capable of restructuring the very bedrock of society. Nagler also includes stories of successful nonviolent resistance that have been ignored by the mass media. The book features a list of resources that offer pathways to immediate action and engagement with the peace movement worldwide.

    Wall Street lost more than 49% of the typical investor's money—twice—since the year 2000. And studies show that because they followed the conventional wisdom, almost half of all Boomers won't have enough money to cover even basic living expenses during their retirement years. Now the financial gurus whose advice got you into this mess in the first place are telling you to "take more risk," "work till you drop," and "plan on spending less in retirement." Don't let them fool you again!In The Bank On Yourself Revolution, financial security expert Pamela Yellen details how hundreds of thousands of people of all ages and incomes have bucked the system to secure their families' financial futures without gambling in the Wall Street Casino or taking any unnecessary risks. You'll discover a proven step-by-step plan for growing your wealth safely, predictably, and guaranteed every single year—even when the markets are tumbling. And you'll learn how to bypass banks, credit card and financing companies to become your own source of financing for cars, vacations, a college education, business expenses and other major purchases.The Bank On Yourself Revolution isn't a "get-rich-quick" scheme; it's about having real wealth and financial security for as long as you live. You can finally know how much money you'll have next year, in 10, 20 or 30 years—and at every point along the way. Join the Revolution and take control of your own financial future!

    Meanwhile, many families of freshmen attending selective private colleges will spend triple—over $300,000. With the same passion, smarts, and humor that infuse his personal finance column, Ron Lieber offers a much-needed roadmap to help families navigate this difficult and often confusing journey. Lieber begins by explaining who pays what and why and how the financial aid system got so complicated. He also pulls the curtain back on merit aid, an entirely new form of discounting that most colleges now use to compete with peers.While price is essential, value is paramount. So what is worth paying extra for, and how do you know when it exists in abundance at any particular school? Is a small college better than a big one? Who actually does the teaching? Given that every college claims to have reinvented its career center, who should we actually believe? He asks the tough questions of college presidents and financial aid gatekeepers that parents don’t know (or are afraid) to ask and summarizes the research about what matters and what doesn’t.Finally, Lieber calmly walks families through the process of setting financial goals, explaining the system to their children and figuring out the right ways to save, borrow, and bargain for a better deal. The Price You Pay for College gives parents the clarity they need to make informed choices and helps restore the joy and wonder the college experience is supposed to represent.

    This book is a slap in the face! It will force the reader out of his or her comfort zone, and will move the reader to remember what he or she needs to know to move forward with purpose. It is about taking charge of your life, and striving for greatness, rather than accepting mediocrity, or a life of quiet desperation. This is what it means to live life aggressively! It means to live with strong purpose and resolve. This book covers areas that few have the courage to talk about, and that is the problem. It is the white elephant in the room that everyone wants to ignore. Instead of confronting this problem, most people waste time watching nonsense like reality television and texting all day long. Self-help books are so focused on making you feel good about yourself, that they fail to help you be honest with yourself. Without brutal honesty you will never move forward. Without a strong sense of purpose, and passion, you will never persevere through the inevitable plethora of hard times that are coming your way in life. People need to accept that they will suffer in order to lead a fulfilling life and that the suffering should be embraced rather than avoided. Embrace the suffering and avoid procrastination the true destroyer of hopes and dreams. This book's focus is to induce real/lasting change and that comes as result of being aggressively honest with yourself, using pressure to your advantage, running toward risk rather than away from it and having a clear vision of what you want and what you are willing to sacrifice to get it. Some of the unique topics covered in this book include: the importance of hormone optimization for well-being and achieving goals, why the real battles in life are within, the necessity of negative thinking, what really makes people happy, and why people should avoid being attached to the results of actions. 50% of profit from book sales will be going to two fantastic organizations. Lifequest Transitions a great organization that helps wounded warriors and the Nevada SCPA an excellent organization that helps abandoned animals find new homes.

    Until recently, however, we have had few clues to unlock the secrets of the brain. Now, research from the neurosciences has greatly improved our understanding of the learning process, and we have a much more solid foundation on which to base educational decisions. In this book, Patricia Wolfe makes it clear that before we can effectively match teaching practice to brain functioning, we must first understand how the brain functions. In Part I, several chapters act as a mini-textbook on brain anatomy and physiology. Then, in Part II, Wolfe brings brain functioning into clearer focus, describing how the brain encodes, manipulates, and stores information. This information-processing model provides a first look at some implications of the research for practice--why meaning is essential for attention, how emotion can enhance or impede learning, and how different types of rehearsal are necessary for different types of learning. In Part III, Wolfe devotes several chapters to practical classroom applications and brain-compatible teaching strategies. This section shows how to use simulations, projects, problem-based learning, graphic organizers, music, rhyme and rhythm, writing, active engagement, and mnemonics. Each chapter provides examples using brief scenarios from actual classroom practice, from the lower elementary grades to high school. The book also includes a glossary of terms.