It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

    We have news for you: A Disney vacation doesn’t have to take years of saving and budgeting! In this comprehensive, detailed guide, Disney historian, expert and host of WDWRadio.com, Lou Mongello will detail for you 102 ways you can have the most magical Disney vacation without breaking the bank! Lou Mongello is an author, host and producer of an award-winning podcast, and recognized Walt Disney World expert. He has spent a lifetime traveling to, studying, and reporting on Walt Disney World. His first-hand expertise will GUARANTEE you can have the Disney vacation you envision for your family at a rate more affordable than you might have expected! Generously supported with links to relevant websites and enriched with insider anecdotes, trivia, and beautiful images, this guide is a MUST HAVE for any family planning toward a Disney vacation. Whether you have been to Walt Disney World dozens of times, or you are planning your first experience, you are guaranteed to create a more budget-friendly experience, whether you are traveling solo, with a friend, or with a family. Included in this user-friendly e-book are money-saving strategies for: - Saving money for your next Walt Disney World vacation - When to go to Walt Disney World - Staying in Walt Disney World resort hotels - Purchasing Walt Disney World park tickets - Booking Disney World packages - Tips for navigating Disney restaurants and the Disney Dining Plan - Buying Disney souvenirs - Maximizng your time and money for you and your kids - AND SO MUCH MORE In addition to his money-saving tips, Mongello includes information on 40 things you can get and do FOR FREE! Tours, souvenirs, food, and experiences are profiled that will enrich your stay without hurting your budget. A perfect investment for those who dream of giving their family the experience of a Walt Disney World vacation, 102 Ways to Save Money For and At Walt Disney World is the authoritative guide to a budget-friendly vacation.

    

    Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

    Most of the time this math works quietly behind the scenes . . . until it doesn't. All sorts of seemingly innocuous mathematical mistakes can have significant consequences.Math is easy to ignore until a misplaced decimal point upends the stock market, a unit conversion error causes a plane to crash, or someone divides by zero and stalls a battleship in the middle of the ocean.Exploring and explaining a litany of glitches, near misses, and mathematical mishaps involving the internet, big data, elections, street signs, lotteries, the Roman Empire, and an Olympic team, Matt Parker uncovers the bizarre ways math trips us up, and what this reveals about its essential place in our world. Getting it wrong has never been more fun.

    David Frum urges a Republican party that is culturally modern, economically inclusive, and environmentally responsible - a party that can meet the challenges of the Obama years and lead a diverse America to a new age of freedom and prosperity.

    The author assures us it is not!Three years before they came together, four young American men left their fraternities and college campuses for an adventure exceeding their imaginations. Wanting something more than the draft and unknown to each other, they chose Naval Aviation as the next step in their lives. Generally, they were better than their navy peers, all qualifying for high performance aircraft to be flown from steel decks over foreign seas. They would become the pointy end of the stick in aerial battles over North Vietnam, the most heavily defended patch of real estate in the history of aerial warfare. They were to do this in 1967, the year in which Naval Aviation experienced its greatest losses.These four young men, now Lieutenants Junior Grade, United States Navy, were ordered to Attack Squadron 34 to fly A4 Skyhawks into combat. They were assigned Junior Officer's stateroom 0111 aboard USS Intrepid, a venerable aircraft carrier with a distinguished history. This "bunkroom" better known to them as Triple Sticks was the repository for a log (in navy terms) or journal written by these four young aviators. Forty years later this log was the genesis of this memoir.In the lethal environment over the northern reaches of North Vietnam or ashore in the Officer's clubs and bars of Asia, the writing brings to life wonderful humor, bizarre behavior, vivid aerial battles, uncommon loyalty, anger, frustration and respect. One survived or did not according to his skill and luck.

    Its ability to target users who have provided real data about themselves and their interests makes Facebook the ideal platform for marketers, and marketers everywhere recognize the importance of Facebook and are eager to successfully tap Facebook's potential. This book shows you how.Quickly get up to speed on today's Facebook conventions and demographics, and then gain an understanding of the various strategic and implementation issues you must consider from start to finish.Guides you through crafting a successful presence on Facebook and takes you through each step for developing an overall marketing strategy Explains each step for setting realistic goals, defining metrics, developing reports, and acquiring corporate buy-in Shows how to execute your strategy while incorporating all of Facebook's relevant features Addresses Facebook's pay-per-click platform, Facebook Connect, and more Packed with tips and tactics not documented anywhere else, the book serves as the ultimate step-by-step guide to developing a winning Facebook marketing campaign.

    To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    This new edition gives expanded attention to the important symbolic roles of school leaders, including practical suggestions on how leaders can balance cultural goals and values against accountability demands, and features new and powerful case examples throughout. Most important, the authors show how school leaders can transform negative and toxic cultures so that trust, commitment, and sense of unity can prevail. Praise for Shaping School Culture "For those seeking enduring change that is measured in generations rather than months, and to create a legacy rather than a headline, then Shaping School Culture is your guide." —Dr. Douglas B. Reeves, founder, The Leadership and Learning Center, Englewood, CO "Deal and Peterson combine exquisite language, vibrant stories, and sage advice to support school leaders in embracing the paradoxical nature of their work. A 'must read' for all school leaders." —Pam Robbins, educational consultant and author "Once again, the authors have presented practitioners, researchers, professional developers, school coaches, and others with a tremendous resource for renovating and reinvigorating schools." —Karen M. Dyer, Ed.D., group director, Education and Nonprofit Sector Office, Center for CreativeLeadership, Greensboro, NC

    The authors acknowledge both the structural and sociological issues that contribute to low-performing schools and offer multiple tools and strategies to assess and improve classroom management, increase literacy, establish academic vocabulary, and contribute to a healthier school culture.

    Beginning with an introduction to array formulas, this manual examines topics such as how they differ from ordinary formulas, the benefits and drawbacks of their use, functions that can and cannot handle array calculations, and array constants and functions. Among the practical applications surveyed include how to extract data from tables and unique lists, how to get results that match any criteria, and how to utilize various methods for unique counts. This book contains 529 screen shots.

    

    Lancaster and David Stillman, the nationally recognized generational experts and authors of When Generations Collide, comes the definitive guide to “Millennials” (those born between 1982 and 2000) in the workplace—what they want, how they think, and how to unlock their talents to your organization’s advantage. If you enjoyed the insights in It’s Okay to Be the Boss, you need to read The M-Factor, destined to become “the” business book on this Millennial generation in the workplace.

    ‘Hollywood: Did You Know?’ is a collection of tidbits of information about the content or making of around 400 movies, ranging from the earliest days of the silent era to the present time. I have utilised anecdotes and comments from scores of biographies (authorised and unauthorised), as well as Internet sources, magazine articles, interviews and TV appearances. If, like me, you are fascinated by the world of movies, particularly the days of the studio system, I think you shall find more than enough items here to satisfy your curiosity. I am currently researching a second volume along similar lines. For elderly readers I should point out that there is a considerable amount of ‘bad language’ herein, simply because I quote actors and actresses verbatim. For many of them (even the so-called ‘greats’), peppering their reminiscences with expletives is commonplace. I make no apology for this, however, for I think it is important to present these individuals as they really were, minus the studio hype that tended to elevate them to the status of flawless gods and godesses. Very few lived up to their glowing reputations, I’m afraid. Having said that, I believe that the temptations ever present for these men and women who were suddenly faced with enormous wealth and universal adoration, would test the resolve of most of us, saints and all. And saints have always been few and far between in Tinsel Town. When I published my first book (Hollywood Warts ‘n’ All Volume 1) in 2005, I was accused of ‘muck-raking’, of tarnishing the reputations of deceased stars who could no longer defend themselves. I still get the occasional brickbat along those lines even today, but times have changed. Over the past 20 years or so, hundreds of books have been published about the ‘good old days’ of the studio system; not only stars’ biographies, but accounts from a diverse range of previously unheard from sources. Maids, bodyguards, chauffeurs, secretaries, bell-hops, agents, family members and acquaintances of the rich and famous etc, now put their memories into print, confirming much of what I have been writing about for almost a decade and a half. Of course, there are still those who rail against anyone who deigns to question the ‘snow-jobs’ churned out by studio publicity departments down the decades; the standard complaint being the usual one – the dead cannot defend themselves. Well, there have been more books written about Napoleon Bonaparte and Hitler than most anyone else, yet no-one complains of either man being unable to defend himself. So, again I make no apolgies for anything included in this publication, unless the reader comes across an unforseen error I may have accidentally overlooked, in which case I apologise unreservedly.