Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    We are bombarded with more information each day than our brains can process—especially in election season. It's raining bad data, half-truths, and even outright lies. New York Times bestselling author Daniel J. Levitin shows how to recognize misleading announcements, statistics, graphs, and written reports revealing the ways lying weasels can use them. It's becoming harder to separate the wheat from the digital chaff. How do we distinguish misinformation, pseudo-facts, distortions, and outright lies from reliable information? Levitin groups his field guide into two categories—statistical infomation and faulty arguments—ultimately showing how science is the bedrock of critical thinking. Infoliteracy means understanding that there are hierarchies of source quality and bias that variously distort our information feeds via every media channel, including social media. We may expect newspapers, bloggers, the government, and Wikipedia to be factually and logically correct, but they so often aren't. We need to think critically about the words and numbers we encounter if we want to be successful at work, at play, and in making the most of our lives. This means checking the plausibility and reasoning—not passively accepting information, repeating it, and making decisions based on it. Readers learn to avoid the extremes of passive gullibility and cynical rejection. Levitin's charming, entertaining, accessible guide can help anyone wake up to a whole lot of things that aren't so. And catch some lying weasels in their tracks!

    Game Theory is the mathematical formalization of interactive decision-making - it assumes that each player's goal is to maximize his/her benefit, whatever it may be. Players may be friends, foes, political parties, states, or any entity that behaves interactively, whether collectively or individually. One of the problems with game analysis is the fact that, as a player, it's very hard to know what would benefit each of the other players; some of us are not even clear about our own goals or what might actually benefit us. Haim Shapira uses multiple examples to explain what Game Theory is and how the different interactions between decision-makers can play out. In this book you will: Meet the Nobel Laureate John F Nash and familiarize yourself with his celebrated equilibrium Learn the basic ideas of the art of negotiation Visit the gladiators' ring and apply for a coaching position Build an airport and divide inheritance Issue ultimatums and learn to trust

    Now, in one of the greatest undertakings of the twenty-first century, a savvy group of mathematicians and computer scientists is beginning to sift through this data to dissect us and map out our next steps. Their goal? To manipulate our behavior -- what we buy, how we vote -- without our even realizing it.In this tour de force of original reporting and analysis, journalist Stephen Baker provides us with a fascinating guide to the world we're all entering -- and to the people controlling that world. The Numerati have infiltrated every realm of human affairs, profiling us as workers, shoppers, patients, voters, potential terrorists -- and lovers. The implications are vast. Our privacy evaporates. Our bosses can monitor and measure our every move (then reward or punish us). Politicians can find the swing voters among us, by plunking us all into new political groupings with names like "Hearth Keepers" and "Crossing Guards." It can sound scary. But the Numerati can also work on our behalf, diagnosing an illness before we're aware of the symptoms, or even helping us find our soul mate. Surprising, enlightening, and deeply relevant, The Numerati shows how a powerful new endeavor -- the mathematical modeling of humanity -- will transform every aspect of our lives. STEPHEN BAKER has written for BusinessWeek for over twenty years, covering Mexico and Latin America, the Rust Belt, European technology, and a host of other topics, including blogs, math, and nanotechnology. But he's always considered himself a foreign correspondent. This, he says, was especially useful as he met the Numerati. "While I came from the world of words, they inhabited the symbolic realms of math and computer science. This was foreign to me. My reporting became an anthropological mission." Baker has written for many publications, including the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, and the Boston Globe. He won an Overseas Press Club Award for his portrait of the rising Mexican auto industry. He is the coauthor of blogspotting.net, featured by the New York Times as one of fifty blogs to watch.

    The controversial book linking intelligence to class and race in modern society, and what public policy can do to mitigate socioeconomic differences in IQ, birth rate, crime, fertility, welfare, and poverty.

    What if everything in life could be reduced to a simple formula? What if numbers were able to tell us which partners we were best matched with – not just in terms of attractiveness, but for a long-term committed marriage? Or if they could say which films would be the biggest hits at the box office, and what changes could be made to those films to make them even more successful? Or even who out of us is likely to commit certain crimes, and when? This may sound like the world of science-fiction, but in fact it is just the tip of the iceberg in a world that is increasingly ruled by complex algorithms and neural networks.In The Formula, Luke Dormehl takes you inside the world of numbers, asking how we came to believe in the all-conquering power of algorithms; introducing the mathematicians, artificial intelligence experts and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who are shaping this brave new world, and ultimately asking how we survive in an era where numbers can sometimes seem to create as many problems as they solve.

    Len Fisher turns his attention to the science of cooperation in his lively and thought-provoking book. Fisher shows how the modern science of game theory has helped biologists to understand the evolution of cooperation in nature, and investigates how we might apply those lessons to our own society. In a series of experiments that take him from the polite confines of an English dinner party to crowded supermarkets, congested Indian roads, and the wilds of outback Australia, not to mention baseball strategies and the intricacies of quantum mechanics, Fisher sheds light on the problem of global cooperation. The outcomes are sometimes hilarious, sometimes alarming, but always revealing. A witty romp through a serious science, Rock, Paper, Scissors will both teach and delight anyone interested in what it what it takes to get people to work together.

    Focused more on concepts than on statistical methods, it shows readers how to properly use statistics to analyze data and demonstrates how computer software is an integral part of this analysis. "Using Statistics" scenarios discuss how statistics is used in a real business setting. Includes contemporary business applications, many with real data sets, and an integrated case that runs throughout chapters. "PHSTAT," a custom designed Excel add-in, is packaged with each book. Introduction and Data Collection. Presenting Data in Tables and Charts. Summarizing and Describing Numerical Data. Basic Probability and Probability Distributions. Sampling Distributions and Confidence Interval Estimation. Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing: One-Sample Tests. Two-Sample and C-Sample Tests with Numerical Data. Hypothesis Testing with Categorical Data. Statistical Applications in Quality and Productivity Management. The Simple Linear Regression Model and Correlations. Introduction to Multiple Regression. Time Series Analysis. An accessible introduction or refresher on statistics for those in accounting, marketing, management, economics, and finance.

    As they see matters, wealth in the form of means of production and wealth in the form of consumers’ goods are essentially indistinguishable. For all practical purposes, they have no awareness of the existence of capital and of its importance. Thus, capitalists are generally depicted as fat men, whose girth allegedly signifies an excessive consumption of food and of wealth in general, while their alleged victims, the wage earners, are typically depicted as substantially underweight, allegedly signifying their inability to consume, thanks to the allegedly starvation wages paid by the capitalists.The truth is that in a capitalist economic system, the wealth of the capitalists is not only overwhelmingly in the form of means of production, such as factory buildings, machinery, farms, mines, stores, warehouses, and means of transportation and communication, but all of this wealth is employed in producing for the market, where its benefit is made available to everyone in the economic system who is able to afford to buy its products.Consider. Whoever can afford to buy an automobile benefits from the existence of the automobile factory and its equipment where that car was made. He also benefits from the existence of all the other automobile factories, whose existence and competition served to reduce the price he had to pay for his automobile. He benefits from the existence of the steel mill that provided the steel for his car, and from the iron mine that provided the iron ore needed for the production of that steel, and, of course, from the existence of all the other steel mills and iron mines whose existence and competition served to hold down the prices of the steel and iron ore that contributed to the production of his car.And, thanks to the great magnitude of wealth employed as capital, the demand for labor, of which capital is the foundation, is great enough and thus wages are high enough that virtually everyone is able to afford to a substantial degree most of the products of the economic system. For the capital of the capitalists is the foundation both of the supply of products that everyone buys and of the demand for the labor that all wage earners sell. More capital—a greater amount of wealth in the possession of the capitalists—means a both a larger and better supply of products for wage earners to buy and a greater demand for the labor that wage earners sell. Everyone, wage earners and capitalists alike, benefits from the wealth of the capitalists, because, as I say, that wealth is the foundation of the supply of the products that everyone buys and of the demand for the labor that all wage earners sell. More capital in the hands of the capitalists always means a more abundant, better quality of goods and services offered for sale and a larger demand for labor. The further effect is lower prices and higher wages, and thus a higher standard of living for wage earners.Furthermore, the combination of the profit motive and competition operates continually to improve the products offered in the market and the efficiency with which they are produced, thus steadily further improving the standard of living of everyone.In the alleged conflict between the so-called 99 percent and the so-called 1 percent, the program of the 99 percent is to seize as far as possible the wealth of the 1 percent and consume it. To the extent that it is enacted, the effect of this program can only be to impoverish everyone, and the 99 percent to a far greater extent than the 1 percent. To the extent that the 1 percent loses its mansions, luxury cars, and champagne and caviar, 99 times as many people lose their houses, run-of-the mill cars, and steak and hamburger.

    Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

    In The Master Algorithm, Pedro Domingos lifts the veil to give us a peek inside the learning machines that power Google, Amazon, and your smartphone. He assembles a blueprint for the future universal learner--the Master Algorithm--and discusses what it will mean for business, science, and society. If data-ism is today's philosophy, this book is its bible.

    But in our zeal to instill the evaluation process with scientific rigor, we've gone from measuring performance to fixating on measuring itself. The result is a tyranny of metrics that threatens the quality of our lives and most important institutions. In this timely and powerful book, Jerry Muller uncovers the damage our obsession with metrics is causing--and shows how we can begin to fix the problem.Filled with examples from education, medicine, business and finance, government, the police and military, and philanthropy and foreign aid, this brief and accessible book explains why the seemingly irresistible pressure to quantify performance distorts and distracts, whether by encouraging "gaming the stats" or "teaching to the test." That's because what can and does get measured is not always worth measuring, may not be what we really want to know, and may draw effort away from the things we care about. Along the way, we learn why paying for measured performance doesn't work, why surgical scorecards may increase deaths, and much more. But metrics can be good when used as a complement to--rather than a replacement for--judgment based on personal experience, and Muller also gives examples of when metrics have been beneficial.Complete with a checklist of when and how to use metrics, The Tyranny of Metrics is an essential corrective to a rarely questioned trend that increasingly affects us all.

    This box set is over 1,200 pages in print and will be available to purchase or borrow in Kindle Unlimited for only a short period of time.Experience the series The Guardian book review says, “...reads like a superior collaboration between Dan Brown and Michael Crichton.” With over 4,000 reviews on Amazon and nearly 25,000 ratings on GoodReads, The Extinction Files has become a phenomenon in both the US and abroad, where it has been translated in 21 languages. SELECTED PRAISE FOR A.G. RIDDLE “I finished the book fast because I just couldn’t wait...” -- WIRED GeekDad on Departure “Riddle... keep(s) the focus on his characters... rather than the technological marvels” -- Publisher’s Weekly on Departure “Well-constructed and tightly-wound as a fine Swiss watch--DEPARTURE has non-stop action, an engaging plot and, of course, wheels within wheels.” -- Diana Gabaldon, bestselling author of OutlanderDescription of Book One: Pandemic A worldwide pandemic...A scientific experiment that could change humanity forever...A race to find a cure--and unravel humanity’s darkest secrets.* * *In Kenya, a deadly outbreak spreads quickly. Local villagers are infected, as are two American college students on summer break.The CDC and WHO send a team, led by Dr. Peyton Shaw. In Africa, Peyton soon discovers that this outbreak is very different from any she’s ever investigated. It appears to be part of a global experiment, one designed to unleash a new era of human existence.As the virus spreads around the world, Peyton uncovers clues that lead to a dark secret in her past. With only hours left to stop the plague, she faces a choice that will change her life forever.Can Peyton stop the outbreak in time? And what’s the truth behind the virus? Is humanity being engineered for some purpose? Is this the end of life as we know it?

    This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life.What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World...An easy read with a big benefit. --Fareed Zakaria, CNNFor those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics. --Ian Ayres, Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal. --John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS InstituteLittle did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably. --Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential EconomistA tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands. --Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of LondonI thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommend it to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and data analysis in solving problems and in creating a better world. --Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician

    Author Brent Donnelly has been a successful interbank FX trader for more than 20 years and in this book, he shares the specific strategies and tactics he has used to profit in the forex marketplace. The book helps investors understand and master foreign exchange trading in order to achieve sustainable long-term financial success. The book builds in intensity and depth one topic at a time, starting with the basics and moving on to intermediate then advanced setups and strategies. Whether you are new to currency trading or have years of experience, The Art of Currency Trading provides the information you need to learn to trade like an expert. This much-needed guide provides: an insider’s view of what drives currency price movements; a clear explanation of how to combine macro fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance and diligent risk management to trade successfully; specific techniques and setups you can use to make money trading foreign exchange; and steps you can take to better understand yourself and improve your trading psychology and discipline. Written for currency traders of all skill levels, international stock and bond investors, corporate treasurers, commodity traders, and asset managers, The Art of Currency Trading offers a comprehensive guide to foreign exchange trading written by a noted expert in the field.