Professor Hacking shows how by the late nineteenth century it became possible to think of statistical patterns as explanatory in themselves, and to regard the world as not necessarily deterministic in character. Combining detailed scientific historical research with characteristic philosophic breath and verve, The Taming of Chance brings out the relations among philosophy, the physical sciences, mathematics and the development of social institutions, and provides a unique and authoritative analysis of the probabilization of the Western world.

    Everybody knows mobile is the future, and every business wants in, but what are the elements of mobile success? SC Moatti, a Silicon Valley veteran, has created a unique Mobile Formula that makes it easy for any business to develop a strategy for creating mobile products that count. Moatti argues that we so identify with our mobile products that we expect from them what we wish for ourselves: an attractive body, a meaningful life, and increasing competence and ability. So the Body Rule dictates that mobile products must appeal to our sense of beauty but beauty in a mobile world is both similar to and different from what it means offline. The Spirit Rule says mobile products must help us address our deepest needs, both as individuals and as members of communities. And the Mind Rule explains that businesses that want to succeed in mobile need to continually analyze the user experience and use that data to refine and improve their products. Great mobile products replicate and amplify human behavior and interaction, writes Moatti. They don't replace human relationships; they enhance them. A strategy manual rather than a technical treatise, Mobilized includes case studies from mobile pioneers such as Facebook, Uber, Tinder, WhatsApp, and more. The market is full of how-to books for programming apps, but no works examine what is required for business success in the mobile era. Until now."

    The aim of a course in real analysis should be to challenge and improve mathematical intuition rather than to verify it. The philosophy of this book is to focus attention on questions which give analysis its inherent fascination.

    'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

    Mitchell covers the field of machine learning, the study of algorithms that allow computer programs to automatically improve through experience and that automatically infer general laws from specific data.

    In part one, you'll learn mental models from systems, helping you see unexpected connections and avoid costly mistakes. You'll discover how these concepts govern the behaviors and interactions in your life. Part one covers topics such as how to:- Identify the right feedback loops to adjust for behavior change (your own and others')- Leverage bottlenecks to supercharge your innovative capabilities- Scale up businesses and other endeavors without damaging their longevity- Reduce risk and preventing disaster by knowing when to incorporate a margin of safety- Construct reliable algorithms in your mind for predictable success to get the results you want every timeIn part two, you'll learn mental models from mathematics that reveal logical patterns in the world. This isn't your high school math class. Part two covers topics such as how to:- Reap exponential gains by investing in knowledge, relationships, and experiences that compound- Utilize the surprising power of sample sizes to reshape your perspective and open your mind- Embrace randomness to become less predictable and more creative- Identify the fundamental components of systems that lead to failure if neglected, so you can focus your energy where it matters most

    This brilliantly clear and gratifyingly concise treatment of the ancient Greek discipline identifies the illogical in everything from street signs to tax forms. Complete with puzzles you can try yourself, Logic Made Easy invites readers to identify and ultimately remedy logical slips in everyday life. Designed with dozens of visual examples, the book guides you through those hair-raising times when logic is at odds with our language and common sense. Logic Made Easy is indeed one of those rare books that will actually make you a more logical human being.

    presidential elections have been won by the second most popular candidate. The reason was a "spoiler"--a minor candidate who takes enough votes away from the most popular candidate to tip the election to someone else. The spoiler effect is more than a glitch. It is a consequence of one of the most surprising intellectual discoveries of the twentieth century: the "impossibility theorem" of Nobel laureate economist Kenneth Arrow. The impossibility theorem asserts that voting is fundamentally unfair--a finding that has not been lost on today's political consultants. Armed with polls, focus groups, and smear campaigns, political strategists are exploiting the mathematical faults of the simple majority vote. In recent election cycles, this has led to such unlikely tactics as Republicans funding ballot drives for Green spoilers and Democrats paying for right-wing candidates' radio ads. Gaming the Vote shows that there is a solution to the spoiler problem that will satisfy both right and left. A systemcalled range voting, already widely used on the Internet, is the fairest voting method of all, according to computer studies. Despite these findings, range voting remains controversial, and Gaming the Vote assesses the obstacles confronting any attempt to change the American electoral system. The latest of several books by William Poundstone on the theme of how important scientific ideas have affected the real world, Gaming the Vote is a wry exposé of how the political system really works, and a call to action.

     If you've been on social media lately, or turned on your TV, you may have noticed a lot of dumb ideas floating around."We know when history will repeat and when it won't.""We can tell the difference between evidence and coincidences.""The simplest explanation is usually true."Wrong, wrong, and dangerous!If we're not careful, loserthink would have us believe that every Trump supporter is a bigoted racist, addicts should be responsible for fixing the opioid epidemic, and that your relationship fell apart simply because you chewed with your mouth open.Even the smartest people can slip into loserthink's seductive grasp. This book will teach you how to spot and avoid it--and will give you scripts to respond when hollow arguments are being brandished against you, whether by well-intentioned friends, strangers on the internet, or political pundits. You'll also learn how to spot the underlying causes of loserthink, like the inability to get ego out of your decisions, thinking with words instead of reasons, failing to imagine alternative explanations, and making too much of coincidences.Your bubble of reality doesn't have to be a prison. This book will show you how to break free--and, what's more, to be among the most perceptive and respected thinkers in every conversation.

    Widely praised and much-discussed, this classic book explores how cooperation can emerge in a world of self-seeking egoists—whether superpowers, businesses, or individuals—when there is no central authority to police their actions. The problem of cooperation is central to many different fields. Robert Axelrod recounts the famous computer tournaments in which the “cooperative” program Tit for Tat recorded its stunning victories, explains its application to a broad spectrum of subjects, and suggests how readers can both apply cooperative principles to their own lives and teach cooperative principles to others.

    The authors have extensive experience both managing data analysts and conducting their own data analyses, and have carefully observed what produces coherent results and what fails to produce useful insights into data. This book is a distillation of their experience in a format that is applicable to both practitioners and managers in data science.

    Employing a methodology that is primarily learning by example and “thinking with our eyes,” this manual features graphs and practical analytical techniques that can be applied to a broad range of data analysis tools—including the most commonly used Microsoft Excel. This approach is particularly valuable to those who need to make sense of quantitative business data by discerning meaningful patterns, trends, relationships, and exceptions that reveal business performance, potential problems and opportunities, and hints about the future. It provides practical skills that are useful to managers at all levels and to those interested in keeping a keen eye on their business.

    With help from Dr. Seuss and Cookie Monster, she explains why numbers can’t be objective: in order to count, one must first decide what counts. Every number is the ending to a story built on cultural assumptions, social conventions, and personal judgments.And yet, in this age of big data and metric mania, numbers shape almost every facet of our lives: whether we get hired, fired, or promoted; whether we get into college or out of prison; how our opinions are gathered and portrayed to politicians; or how government designs health and safety regulations. In warm and playful prose, Counting explores what happens when we measure nebulous notions like merit, race, poverty, pain, or productivity.When so much rides on numbers, they can become instruments of social welfare, justice, and democracy—or not. The citizens of Flint, Michigan, for instance, used numbers to prove how their household water got contaminated and to force their government to take remedial action. In stark contrast, the Founding Fathers finessed an intractable conflict by counting each slave as three-fifths of a person in the national census. They set a terrible precedent for today’s politicians who claim to solve moral and political dilemmas with arithmetic.Suffused with moral reflection and ending with a powerful epilogue on COVID-19’s dizzying statistics, Counting will forever change our relationship with numbers.

    The book begins by introducing the R language, including the development environment. Focusing on practical solutions, the book also offers a crash course in practical statistics and covers elegant methods for dealing with messy and incomplete data using features of R.About the TechnologyR is a powerful language for statistical computing and graphics that can handle virtually any data-crunching task. It runs on all important platforms and provides thousands of useful specialized modules and utilities. This makes R a great way to get meaningful information from mountains of raw data.About the BookR in Action is a language tutorial focused on practical problems. It presents useful statistics examples and includes elegant methods for handling messy, incomplete, and non-normal data that are difficult to analyze using traditional methods. And statistical analysis is only part of the story. You'll also master R's extensive graphical capabilities for exploring and presenting data visually. Purchase of the print book comes with an offer of a free PDF, ePub, and Kindle eBook from Manning. Also available is all code from the book. What's InsidePractical data analysis, step by stepInterfacing R with other softwareUsing R to visualize dataOver 130 graphsEight reference appendixes================================Table of ContentsPart I Getting startedIntroduction to RCreating a datasetGetting started with graphsBasic data managementAdvanced data managementPart II Basic methodsBasic graphsBasic statisticsPart III Intermediate methodsRegressionAnalysis of variancePower analysisIntermediate graphsRe-sampling statistics and bootstrappingPart IV Advanced methodsGeneralized linear modelsPrincipal components and factor analysisAdvanced methods for missing dataAdvanced graphics

    Yet unlike Einstein, with whom he formed a warm and abiding friendship, Gödel has long escaped all but the most casual scrutiny of his life.Stephen Budiansky’s Journey to the Edge of Reason is the first biography to fully draw upon Gödel’s voluminous letters and writings—including a never-before-transcribed shorthand diary of his most intimate thoughts—to explore Gödel’s profound intellectual friendships, his moving relationship with his mother, his troubled yet devoted marriage, and the debilitating bouts of paranoia that ultimately took his life. It also offers an intimate portrait of the scientific and intellectual circles in prewar Vienna, a haunting account of Gödel’s and Jewish intellectuals’ flight from Austria and Germany at the start of the Second World War, and a vivid re-creation of the early days of Princeton’s Institute for Advanced Study, where Gödel and Einstein both worked.Eloquent and insightful, Journey to the Edge of Reason is a fully realized portrait of the odd, brilliant, and tormented man who has been called the greatest logician since Aristotle, and illuminates the far-reaching implications of Gödel’s revolutionary ideas for philosophy, mathematics, artificial intelligence, and man’s place in the cosmos.