Updated web links and expanded appendices provide cutting edge information on action research along with new case studies and examples.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Gödel received public recognition of his work in 1951 when he was awarded the first Albert Einstein Award for achievement in the natural sciences--perhaps the highest award of its kind in the United States. The award committee described his work in mathematical logic as "one of the greatest contributions to the sciences in recent times."However, few mathematicians of the time were equipped to understand the young scholar's complex proof. Ernest Nagel and James Newman provide a readable and accessible explanation to both scholars and non-specialists of the main ideas and broad implications of Gödel's discovery. It offers every educated person with a taste for logic and philosophy the chance to understand a previously difficult and inaccessible subject.New York University Press is proud to publish this special edition of one of its bestselling books. With a new introduction by Douglas R. Hofstadter, this book will appeal students, scholars, and professionals in the fields of mathematics, computer science, logic and philosophy, and science.

    The psychiatric establishment and rehab industry in the Western world have branded addiction a brain disease. But in The Biology of Desire, cognitive neuroscientist and former addict Marc Lewis makes a convincing case that addiction is not a disease, and shows why the disease model has become an obstacle to healing. Lewis reveals addiction as an unintended consequence of the brain doing what it's supposed to do-seek pleasure and relief-in a world that's not cooperating. As a result, most treatment based on the disease model fails. Lewis shows how treatment can be retooled to achieve lasting recovery. This is enlightening and optimistic reading for anyone who has wrestled with addiction either personally or professionally.

    The biological background provided enables students to comprehend the major problems in biochemical engineering and formulate effective solutions.

    In this lively and accessible introduction, Graham Priest shows how wrong this conception is. He explores the philosophical roots of the subject, explaining how modern formal logic deals with issues ranging from the existence of God and the reality of time to paradoxes of probability and decision theory. Along the way, the basics of formal logic are explained in simple, non-technical terms, showing that logic is a powerful and exciting part of modern philosophy.About the Series: Combining authority with wit, accessibility, and style, Very Short Introductions offer an introduction to some of life's most interesting topics. Written by experts for the newcomer, they demonstrate the finest contemporary thinking about the central problems and issues in hundreds of key topics, from philosophy to Freud, quantum theory to Islam.

    It features a visual presentation, designed to encourage learning; revised exercises to ensure clarity, balance and relevance; and clear commentary on the difficult subject of critical multivariable calculus topics.

    Focused on helping students understand and construct proofs and expanding their mathematical maturity, this best-selling text is an accessible introduction to discrete mathematics. Johnsonbaugh's algorithmic approach emphasizes problem-solving techniques. The Seventh Edition reflects user and reviewer feedback on both content and organization.

    It covers all relevant areas, including molecular spectroscopy, electronic structure computations, molecular beam methods and time-resolved measurements of chemical systems.

    Designed for the junior- level astrophysics course, each topic is approached in the context of the major unresolved questions in astrophysics. The core chapters have been designed for a course in stellar structure and evolution, while the extended chapters provide additional coverage of the solar system, galactic structure, dynamics, evolution, and cosmology. * Two versions of this text are available: An Introduction to Modern Stellar Astrophysics, (Chapters 1-17), and An Introduction to Modern Astrophysics, (Chapters 1-28). * Computer programs included with the text allow students to explore the physics of stars and galaxies. * In designing a curriculum, instructors can combine core and extended chapters with the optional advanced sections so as to meet their individual goals. * Up-to-date coverage of current astrophysical discoveries are included. * This text emphasizes computational physics, including computer problems and on-line programs. * This text also includes a selection of over 500 problems. For additional information and computer codes to be used

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.

    Hewitt's text is famous for engaging readers with analogies and imagery from real-world situations that build a strong conceptual understanding of physical principles ranging from classical mechanics to modern physics. With this strong foundation, readers are better equipped to understand the equations and formulas of physics, and motivated to explore the thought-provoking exercises and fun projects in each chapter. Included in the package is the workbook. Mechanics, Properties of Matter, Heat, Sound, Electricity and Magnetism, Light, Atomic and Nuclear Physics, Relativity. For all readers interested in conceptual physics.

    By investing some of the lesser-known corners of psychology, neuroscience, physics, history, and even crime, all through the lens of trickery and illusion, Fooling Houdini arrives at a host of startling revelations about how the mind works--and why, sometimes, it doesn’t.

    With it has come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It should be a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book's coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting—the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie wrote much of the statistical modeling software in S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the Lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, and projection pursuit.

    Each sketch contains Questions and Projects to help you learn more about its topic and to see how its main ideas fit into the bigger picture of history. The 25 short stories are preceded by a 56-page bird's-eye overview of the entire panorama of mathematical history, a whirlwind tour of the most important people, events, and trends that shaped the mathematics we know today. Reading suggestions after each sketch provide starting points for readers who want to pursue a topic further."