Trading Bases explains how he did it. After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta was out of a job. He found a new one but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That’s when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball—and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500? In Trading Bases, Peta shows how to subtract luck—in particular “cluster luck,” as he puts it—from a team’s statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball “hedge fund” returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011—and has never been down more than 5 percent. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers. Often humorous, occasionally touching, and with a wink toward the sheer implausibility of the whole project, Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.

    This book has two underlying themes that are more or less independent of the statistical hypothesis tests that are the main content of the book. The first theme is the importance of looking at the data before formulating a hypothesis. With this in mind, the author discusses, in detail, plotting data, looking for outliers, and checking assumptions (Graphical displays are used extensively). The second theme is the importance of the relationship between the statistical test to be employed and the theoretical questions being posed by the experiment. To emphasize this relationship, the author uses real examples to help the student understand the purpose behind the experiment and the predictions made by the theory. Although this book is designed for students at the intermediate level or above, it does not assume that students have had either a previous course in statistics or a course in math beyond high-school algebra.

    This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    Line drawings and more than 1,000 new color images illustrate concepts more clearly than ever. This book includes detailed information on diagnosis, treatment planning concepts, related problems or controversies, and current treatment procedures, including the role of orthodontics in comprehensive treatment of patients with multiple problems.A NEW full-color design includes a total of more than 1,400 clinical photographs and illustrations.Application of the soft tissue paradigm to modern orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning.Critical evaluation of controversies in treatment approaches and treatment timing.NEW information on the use of cone beam CT for 3-dimensional evaluation of dental and facial dimensions and relationships, and 3-D superimpositions to evaluate treatment response.Problem-oriented treatment planning, with use of digital technology to develop a database that can feed through to the treatment plan.Updated content on biomechanics to help you plan efficient use of modern orthodontic appliance systems.NEW skeletal anchorage techniques using bone anchors and mini screws.Chapters on adult treatment featuring the sequencing of multidisciplinary treatment, the new approach to lingual orthodontics, and a discussion of surgical vs. orthodontic treatment options.Full-color design includes hundreds of clinical photographs and illustrations with brighter, more engaging text and more demonstrative figures.Diagnosis and treatment planning chapters are revised to consider new paradigms to teach students and orthodontists how to apply the results of current research to their practice and treatment plans.Current technologies and advances in contemporary treatment provide clinicians with ways to make treatment planning and execution more efficient.Updated content on biomechanics gives clinicians ways to plan appropriate orthodontic appliance systems through which mechanotherapy is delivered using principles of forces.Updated information on mechanical devices, such as transplants, transpositions, implants, and temporary anchorage using mini screws, provide an understanding on how these devices can affect orthodontic treatment and what is available on the market to improve treatment outcomes.Appliance chapters have been condensed to reflect only the most useful and contemporary materials.Chapters on treatment for adults have been rewritten to include new concepts in periodontics and new clinical cases with predictions and outcomes and discussion of surgical vs. orthodontic treatment options.Early treatment chapters have been consolidated and new research included in the reorganization of content to make it consistent with the best data available in the literature.Every section of the book begins with a section opener to outline the main concepts discussed in that section.

    No previous knowledge of statistics is assumed, and mathematical background is assumed to be minimal (lowest-level high-school algebra). This text may be used in a one or two course sequence. Such sequences are commonly required of social science graduate students in sociology, political science, and psychology. Students in geography, anthropology, journalism, and speech also are sometimes required to take at least one statistics course.

    It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

    Written In An Objective And User-Friendly Manner, This Best-Selling Text Continues To Captivate Students By Incorporating Personal Drug Use And Abuse Experiences And Perspectives Throughout. Statistics And Chapter Content Have Been Revised To Include The Latest Information On Current Topics.

    This book will offer students a broad outline of essential mathematics and will help to fill in the gaps in their knowledge. The author explains the basic points and a few key results of all the most important undergraduate topics in mathematics, emphasizing the intuitions behind the subject. The topics include linear algebra, vector calculus, differential and analytical geometry, real analysis, point-set topology, probability, complex analysis, set theory, algorithms, and more. An annotated bibliography offers a guide to further reading and to more rigorous foundations.

    The PADI Open Water Diver course leads to two possible certifications: PADI SCUBA Diver and PADI Open Water Diver. This book covers basic diving certification topics and techniques including:Choosing, using, maintaining, and storing equipment.Basic training, from pool to open waterDiving physiology, including buoyancy, behavior of gases, the bends, and hypothermia.Dive planning, including decompression dives.Safety and first aid.

    What's new in the Second Edition? 1. Fully compliant with the latest version of SPSS version 12 2. More coverage of advanced statistics including completely new coverage of non-parametric statistics. The book is 50 per cent longer than the First Edition. 3. Each section of each chapter now has a notation - 1,2 or 3 - referring to the intended level of study. This helps students navigate their way through the book and makes it user-friendly for students of ALL levels. 4. Has a 'how to use this book' section at the start of the text. 5. Characters in each chapter have defined roles - summarizing key points, to pose questions etc 6. Each chapter now has several examples for students to work through. Answers provided on the enclosed CD-ROM

    Its fundamental goals are to provide an integrated view of macroeconomics, and to make close contact with current macroeconomic events.

    There are equally many advanced textbooks which delve into the far reaches of statistical theory, while bypassing practical applications. But between these two approaches is an unfilled gap, in which theory and practice merge at an intermediate level. Professor M. G. Bulmer's Principles of Statistics, originally published in 1965, was created to fill that need. The new, corrected Dover edition of Principles of Statistics makes this invaluable mid-level text available once again for the classroom or for self-study.Principles of Statistics was created primarily for the student of natural sciences, the social scientist, the undergraduate mathematics student, or anyone familiar with the basics of mathematical language. It assumes no previous knowledge of statistics or probability; nor is extensive mathematical knowledge necessary beyond a familiarity with the fundamentals of differential and integral calculus. (The calculus is used primarily for ease of notation; skill in the techniques of integration is not necessary in order to understand the text.)Professor Bulmer devotes the first chapters to a concise, admirably clear description of basic terminology and fundamental statistical theory: abstract concepts of probability and their applications in dice games, Mendelian heredity, etc.; definitions and examples of discrete and continuous random variables; multivariate distributions and the descriptive tools used to delineate them; expected values; etc. The book then moves quickly to more advanced levels, as Professor Bulmer describes important distributions (binomial, Poisson, exponential, normal, etc.), tests of significance, statistical inference, point estimation, regression, and correlation. Dozens of exercises and problems appear at the end of various chapters, with answers provided at the back of the book. Also included are a number of statistical tables and selected references.

    He includes information on Java Platform Standard Edition 6 (Java SE 6) and offers complete coverage of the Java language, its syntax, keywords, and fundamental programming principles.

    Deciding on exactly the right strategy in any particular situation can be very difficult. Perhaps this is why very few authors have attempted to analyze this game even though it is widely played. In 1989, the first edition of this text appeared. Many ideas, which were only known to a small, select group of players, were now made available to anyone who was striving to become an expert, and a major gap in the poker literature was closed. It is now a new century, and the authors have again moved the state of the art forward by adding over 100 pages of new material, including an extensive section on "loose games." Anyone who studies this text, is well disciplined, and gets the proper experience should become a significant winner. Some of the other ideas discussed in this 21st century edition include the cards that are out, the number of players in the pot, ante stealing, playing big pairs, playing little and medium pairs, playing three-flushes, playing three-straights, randomizing your play, fourth street, pairing your door card on fourth street, proper play on fifth, sixth, and seventh streets, defending against a possible ante steal, playing against a paired door card, scare card strategy, and buying a free card.

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.