Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    This book provides actionable steps to help shop owners engage the Etsy community in authentic ways that attract buyers and generate sales. The best Etsy shops stand out among the sea of sellers and draw loyal customer bases, but how they’ve done it isn’t—and shouldn't be—a secret. In these pages, top Etsy sellers share the tools that have helped them, the changes they made that yielded positive results, and their best advice for achieving and sustaining a successful Etsy shop. Beyond sellers’ words of wisdom, this book offers a roadmap all sellers can follow in order to: • Choose keywords and tags to drive traffic to your shop • Photograph your products for maximum appeal • Create a unique shop that stands out • Write winning product descriptions • Price your goods appropriately • Market your products effectively on social media platforms • Maintain lasting relationships with your customers • Diversify your product offerings

    I began developing my Weider System back in the 1930s and continue to refine and add new Weider Training Principles to it. You can rely on the information I present in this book to improve your physique. Good luck! -- Joe Weider On Instinctive Training One of the most fundamental secrets of successful bodybuilding is getting to know your body and how it reacts to various training and nutritional practices. Unless you have finely honed your instinctive training ability, it will take many weeks, even months, to evaluate each experiment. It definitely pays to master the Weider Instinctive Training Principle. -- Franco Columbo, two-time Mr. Olympia On Progression The key to building massive, powerful muscles is to doggedly increase the training weights you use. But it is only good to increase training poundage if you do so in perfect form. There is a direct correlation between the amount of weight you use with perfect biomechanics in an exercise and the mass of muscles that move that weight. -- Lee Haney, three-time Mr. Olympia On Muscle Confusion Once I reached the advanced level of bodybuilding and started entering competitions, I discovered that I quickly became bored with a set training program. I began to use the Weider Muscle Confusion Principle, changing to a new and more challenging routine every time I came into the gym to bomb a particular body part. -- Lou Ferrigno On Supersets Since supersets constitute a big jump in training intensity, I always tell bodybuilders new to the Weider Supersets Training Principles to experiment with supersets, compounding movements for the biceps and triceps, or forearm flexors and forearm extensors. -- Albert Beckles, IFBB World Pro Grand Prix Champion

    With an increasing number of graduate and business school applicants and an increasing number of GRE test-takers—now a complete test overhaul by the test-maker—a high GRE score is critical to set yourself apart from the competition.New GRE 2011-2012 Premier with CD-ROM is a comprehensive package that includes a book, CD-ROM, and online companion with in-depth strategies, test information, and practice questions to help students score higher on the new GRE Revised General Test. New GRE 2011-2012 Premier with CD-ROM is fully updated and revised with 75 percent all-new content covering the revised and expanded Verbal, Quantitative, and Analytical Writing Assessment Test sections, including 50 percent new practice questions and brand new strategies for each of the new question types.New GRE 2011-2012 Premier with CD-ROM features:6 full-length practice tests (1 in the book, 5 online)400 practice questions and answer explanations on the CD-ROMA detailed overview of the test changesKey strategies for all New GRE question typesDetails and practice sets for the Verbal and Quantitative sectionsDiagnostic tool in end-of-chapter practice sets for even more targeted practiceAdvice for the graduate school application processKaplan guarantees that readers will score higher on the GRE Revised General Test using our guide—or get their money back.

    We look at how to set up your spreadsheet, getting data into Excel, formatting your spreadsheet, a bit of display management and how to print and share your spreadsheets. Learn Excel Visually The idea of these short handy bite-size books is to provide you with what I have found to be most useful elements of Excel within my day-to-day work and life. I don’t tell you about all the bells and whistles – just what you need on a daily basis. These eBooks are suitable for anyone who is looking to learn Excel and wants to increase their productivity and efficiency, both at work and home. Please bear in mind I don’t cover all functionality of all areas, the point is that I strip out anything that’s not useful and only highlight the functionality that I believe is useful on a daily basis. Don’t buy a huge textbook which you’ll never fully read, pick an eBook which is most relevant to your current learning, read it, apply it and then get on with your day.

    This title has a new edition: 5th Edition

    This text integrates charts and tables to simplify such complicated issues as employment law, job satisfaction, work motivation and leadership. While striking a balance between research, theory and application, Aamodt introduces humor to make the student's reading more enjoyable. Students will be able to relate to industrial/organizational psychology by viewing such practical applications as how to write a resume, survive an employment interview, write a job description, create a performance appraisal instrument, and motivate employees.

    Her tenacious struggle to remain human in the face of inhuman torture and deprivation while imprisoned by the Chinese for 27 years inspires any reader fortunate enough to encounter this remarkable woman's story. The Voice that Remembers features additional material on Tibet and China in the last half of the 20th century.

    This book will provide you with an advanced system for attacking any Logical Reasoning question that you may encounter on the LSAT. The concepts presented in the Logical Reasoning Bible are representative of the techniques covered in PowerScore's live courses and have been consistently proven effective for thousands of our students. The book features and explains a detailed methodology for attacking all aspects of Logic Reasoning problems, including recognizing question types, identifying common reasoning elements and determining their validity, the methods for efficiently and accurately making inferences, and techniques for quickly eliminating answer choices as you solve the questions.

    The most popular applications-oriented approach to engineering technology fluid mechanics, this text covers all of the basic principles of fluid mechanics-both statics and dynamics-in a clear, practical presentation that ties theory directly to real devices and systems used in chemical process industries, manufacturing, plant engineering, waste water handling and product design. Readable and clearly written, the new 6th edition brings a much more attractive appearance to the book and includes many updates and additional features.

    These areas of knowledge have converged into a modern theory of epidemiology that has been slow to penetrate into textbooks, particularly at the introductory level. Epidemiology: An Introduction closes the gap. It begins with a brief, lucid discussion of causal thinking and causal inference and then takes the reader through the elements of epidemiology, focusing on the measures of disease occurrence and causal effects. With these building blocks in place, the reader learns how to design, analyze and interpret problems that epidemiologists face, including confounding, the role of chance, and the exploration of interactions. All these topics are layered on the foundation of basic principles presented in simple language, with numerous examples and questions for further thought.

    Publishing is one of the most complex and lucrative parts of the music business. Industry expert Randall Wixen covers everything from mechanical, performing and synch rights to sub-publishing, foreign rights, copyright basics, types of publishing deals, advice on representation and more. Get a view from the top, in plain English. This updated and revised edition has been prepared in light of the ever-changing landscape of music publishing, taking into account factors like illegal downloading and recent announcements from the Copyright Royalty Board. With an added "DIY" chapter, the author demonstrates why the playing field has changed for the traditional copyright adminstrators, and how musicians just starting out can protect their own work until they hit the big time.

    It is a hands-on guide to learning about the natural environment of California. Subjects covered include California natural history and geology, native plants and animals, California's freshwater resources and ecosystems, forest and rangeland resources, conservation biology, and the effects of global warming on California's natural communities. The Handbook also discusses how to create and use a field notebook, natural resource interpretation, citizen science, and collaborative conservation and serves as the primary text for the California Naturalist Program.

    National terrorism expert Jonathan R. White provides specific examples that will enable you to understand how terrorism arises and how it functions. Dr. White gives essential historical (pre-1980) background on the phenomenon of terrorism and the roots of contemporary conflicts, includes detailed descriptions of recent and contemporary conflicts shaping the world stage, and presents theoretical and concrete information about Homeland Security organizations. Throughout, he reviews the relevant issues and challenges. With this sixth edition, Dr. White has fine-tuned the text and kept pace with the state of terrorism in today's world.

    Written in a concise, bulleted outline format, this well-illustrated text offers 500 USMLE-style review questions, answers, and explanations and features comprehensive content and upgraded USMLE Step 1 information.