Based on her work at the Santa Fe Institute and drawing on its interdisciplinary strategies, Mitchell brings clarity to the workings of complexity across a broad range of biological, technological, and social phenomena, seeking out the general principles or laws that apply to all of them. Richly illustrated, Complexity: A Guided Tour--winner of the 2010 Phi Beta Kappa Book Award in Science--offers a wide-ranging overview of the ideas underlying complex systems science, the current research at the forefront of this field, and the prospects for its contribution to solving some of the most important scientific questions of our time.

    Learn how to use CDs, bonds, and bond funds to manage risk/reward even during low interest rates. You will learn:How to choose your stocks/bonds allocationHow to become immune to changing interest ratesWhen to use CDs and individual bondsHow to choose a good bond fundHow to hedge against unexpected inflationContents:Foreword by Larry SwedroeIntroduction- Who Should Read This Book?- Start with a Sound Financial LifestyleWhy Bother With Bonds?- Stocks are risky in the short-run, and the long run too!- Bonds Make Risk More Palatable- Bonds Can Be A Safe Bet- Bonds Are An Attractive Investment DiversifierLife Is Complicated. Bonds Are Not.- What is a Money Market Fund?- Are CDs Better Than Bonds?- What Are Bonds?- What is a Bond Ladder?- Individual Bonds or a Bond Fund?Bonds: Risks and Returns- Yield, Price And Making Comparisons— How To Compare Individual Bond Returns— How to Compare Bond Fund Returns— Total Return: To Measure And Compare Performance- How To Reduce Risk From Interest Rates Changes— Duration: The Point of Indifference to Interest Rates— Duration: The Measure of Sensitivity to Interest Rates- How To Reduce Risk From Unexpected Inflation— Real versus Nominal Interest Rates— Why Include TIPS In Your Portfolio?- Credit Quality or Default RiskBuild The Bond Portion Of Your Portfolio- Start With Your Goals.- How Much Risk Is Right For You?— Understand How Much Risk You’re Taking— Take Your Risk In Stock Market, Not Bond Market— How Much in Bonds? How Much in Stocks?— Your Needs Change Over Time- The Importance of Low Cost— How Much To Diversify Bonds?— The Importance of Low Cost— Five Low-Cost Strategies You Can Do Yourself- Taxes Matter- Example Portfolios (both good and bad)Common Misconceptions Important to Correct- Stocks Are Safer In The Long Run- Holding a Bond (or CD) to Maturity Eliminates Risk- Stocks Are Safer Than Bonds- The Best Funds Have The Most Stars- A One Percent Fee Is Small- Rising Interest Rates are Bad for Bond Holders- You Can’t Beat the Market Using Index Funds- Use Multiple Investment Companies To Diversify- You Need Many Mutual Funds to Diversify- Frugal Means StingyReviews Worth Noting:“[As] stocks have surged and bond yields have dwindled, investors increasingly ask "Why bother with bonds?" Rick Van Ness takes this question and runs with it in his book sporting this provocative title. Sooner or later, this question will answer itself, and it will behoove all investors to get to know Rick before it does. Read it, enjoy it, and profit from it—before it's too late.”William J. BernsteinAuthor, The Four Pillars of Investing“In his simply stated and entertaining book, Rick Van Ness eloquently instructs the reader on how to do bonds right – in fact, better than any single book I’ve read.”Allan S. RothAuthor: How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street“If you are a DIY investor . . . you should read this book. It will steer you clear of areas you need to avoid and into where you should be. A quick read filled with valuable info!”Robert Wasilewski“This book should be part of America’s high school curriculum.”Andrew HallamAuthor: Millionaire Teacher

    

    Darst, author of The Art of Asset Allocation Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley Individual Investor Group -Nobody has written about the craft of money management with more insight, humor, and understanding than Adam Smith. Over the years, he has consistently separated wisdom from whimsy, brilliance from bluster, and character from chicanery.--Byron R. Wien, coauthor of Soros on Soros Chief Investment Strategist, Pequot Capital ManagementSupermoney may be even more relevant today than when it was first published nearly twenty-five years ago. Written in the bright and funny style that became Adam Smith's trademark, this book gives a view inside institutions, professionals, and the nature of markets that has rarely been shown before or since. -Adam Smith- was the first to introduce an obscure fund manager in Omaha, Nebraska, named Warren Buffett. In this new edition, Smith provides a fresh perspective in an updated Preface that contextualizes the applicability of the markets of the 1960s and 1970s to today's markets. Things change, but sometimes the more they change, the more they stay the same.

    Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book entices lay-readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.You have been predicted — by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, "I knew you were going to do that!" These institutions are seizing upon the power to predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats financial risk, fortifies healthcare, conquers spam, toughens crime fighting, and boosts sales.How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, booming unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future — lifting a bit of the fog off our hazy view of tomorrow — means pay dirt.In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: -What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. -Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves. -Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. -Five reasons why organizations predict death, including one health insurance company. -How U.S. Bank, European wireless carrier Telenor, and Obama's 2012 campaign calculated the way to most strongly influence each individual. -How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! -How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. -How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide who stays in prison and who goes free. -What's predicted by the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, IBM, the IRS, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, Pandora, PayPal, Pfizer, and Wikipedia. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward — but that can be predicted in advance?Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

    Now, two science professors give us the tools to dismantle misinformation and think clearly in a world of fake news and bad data.It's increasingly difficult to know what's true. Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news abound. Our media environment has become hyperpartisan. Science is conducted by press release. Startup culture elevates bullshit to high art. We are fairly well equipped to spot the sort of old-school bullshit that is based in fancy rhetoric and weasel words, but most of us don't feel qualified to challenge the avalanche of new-school bullshit presented in the language of math, science, or statistics. In Calling Bullshit, Professors Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West give us a set of powerful tools to cut through the most intimidating data.You don't need a lot of technical expertise to call out problems with data. Are the numbers or results too good or too dramatic to be true? Is the claim comparing like with like? Is it confirming your personal bias? Drawing on a deep well of expertise in statistics and computational biology, Bergstrom and West exuberantly unpack examples of selection bias and muddled data visualization, distinguish between correlation and causation, and examine the susceptibility of science to modern bullshit.We have always needed people who call bullshit when necessary, whether within a circle of friends, a community of scholars, or the citizenry of a nation. Now that bullshit has evolved, we need to relearn the art of skepticism.

    Some have explored the levels of happiness or dissatisfaction associated with typical daily activities, such as working, seeing friends, or doing household chores. Others have tried to determine the extent to which income, family, religion, and other factors are associated with the satisfaction people feel about their lives. The Gallup organization has begun conducting global surveys of happiness, and several countries are considering publishing periodic reports on the growth or decline of happiness among their people. One nation, tiny Bhutan, has actually made Gross National Happiness the central aim of its domestic policy. How might happiness research affect government policy in the United States--and beyond? In The Politics of Happiness, former Harvard president Derek Bok examines how governments could use the rapidly growing research data on what makes people happy--in a variety of policy areas to increase well-being and improve the quality of life for all their citizens.Bok first describes the principal findings of happiness researchers. He considers how reliable the results appear to be and whether they deserve to be taken into account in devising government policies. Recognizing both the strengths and weaknesses of happiness research, Bok looks at the policy implications for economic growth, equality, retirement, unemployment, health care, mental health, family programs, education, and government quality, among other subjects. Timely and incisive, The Politics of Happiness sheds new light on what makes people happy and how government policy could foster greater satisfaction for all.

    Fully updated with the 2009 practice guidelines, this book will take you through every step of a project - from planning and establishing roles to closing and reviewing - offering practical and easy-to-understand advice on using PRINCE2. It also shows how to use the method when approaching the key concerns of project management, including setting up effective controls, managing project risk, managing quality and controlling change. PRINCE2 allows you to divide your project into manageable chunks, so you can make realistic plans and know when resources will be needed. PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition provides you with a comprehensive guide to its systems, procedures and language so you can run efficient and successful projects.PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition includes: Part I: How PRINCE Can Help You - Chapter 1: So What's a Project Method and Why Do I Need to Use One? - Chapter 2: Outlining the Structure of PRINCE2 - Chapter 3: Getting Real Power from PRINCE2Part II: Working Through Your Project - Chapter 4: Checking the Idea Before You Start - Chapter 5: Planning the Whole Project: Initiation - Chapter 6: Preparing for a Stage in the Project - Chapter 7: Controlling a Stage - Chapter 8: Building the Deliverables - the Work of the Teams - Chapter 9: Finishing the Project - Chapter 10: Running Effective Project BoardsPart III: Help with PRINCE Project Management - Chapter 11: Producing and Updating the Business Case - Chapter 12: Deciding Roles and Responsibilities - Chapter 13: Managing Project Quality - Chapter 14: Planning the Project, Stages, and Work Packages - Chapter 15: Managing Project Risk - Chapter 16: Controlling Change and Controlling Versions - Chapter 17: Monitoring Progress and Setting Up Effective ControlsPart IV: The Part of Tens - Chapter 18: Ten Ways to Make PRINCE Work Well - Chapter 19: Ten Tips for a Good Business Case - Chapter 20: Ten Things for Successful Project Assurance Part V: Appendices - Appendix A: Looking into PRINCE Qualifications - Appendix B: Glossary of the Main PRINCE2 Terms

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    You understand the basics of investing and diversifying your portfolio. Now it's time to invest like a pro for greater profits--with investment expert David Stein, host of the popular weekly podcast, "Money for the Rest of Us." He's created a unique ten-question template that makes it easy for individual investors like you to:- Invest more confidently- Feel less overwhelmed- Build a stronger portfolio- Avoid costly mistakes- Plan and save for retirementDespite what many people believe, you don't need to be an expert to be a successful investor. With Stein as your personal money mentor, you'll learn how to make smarter, more informed decisions that can help reduce your risk and increase your gains by following a few simple rules for analyzing any investment. This is how the professionals grow their wealth and how you can, too. This is Money for the Rest of Us.

    Everything you wanted to know about Stock Market Investing effectively dispels that notion. Using simple language, devoid of scary 'financial jargon', it covers all aspects of stock market investing and issues that are tangential too. From financial planning and the impact of inflation on investments, from equity investing strategies like top-down and bottom-up investing etc. to risk mitigation measures like value averaging, using market volatility, this book makes your knowledge on investing in stocks holistic. Everything you wanted to know about Stock Market Investing also goes beyond just explaining how markets work. With practical tips and illustrations, axioms, action points and test questions it prepares you for your practical journey into the world of stocks. The book not only helps the investor comprehend the nuances of equity investing for wealth buildup, it also helps the investor understand macroeconomic aspects and their impact on businesses, how to respond in times of panic, how to avoid being the victim of stock market scams and finally, how to compute equity investment returns before and after tax. It manages to transform the seemingly formidable task of stock investing into an enjoyable and rewarding exercise that leaves you wanting to know more and do more. It is most definitely the first step for the uninitiated and an actual trigger point for those who have been watching from the wings.

    Whether they bind computers, economies, or terrorist organizations, networks are everywhere in the real world, yet only recently have scientists attempted to explain their mysterious workings.From epidemics of disease to outbreaks of market madness, from people searching for information to firms surviving crisis and change, from the structure of personal relationships to the technological and social choices of entire societies, Watts weaves together a network of discoveries across an array of disciplines to tell the story of an explosive new field of knowledge, the people who are building it, and his own peculiar path in forging this new science.

    This derives directly from the view that the real world is fundamentally unstable and unpredictable (i.e., it’s not a matter of having a better forecasting model). The best response to such a world, therefore, is to have a good grasp of what is currently happening and to respond quickly and flexibly to the evolving situation.My worldview derives from many sources ranging from religious philosophy and long-range history, to Chaos Theory and Network Theory–with many of them integrated under a broad CAS framework. Some of the foreign writers and thinkers who have influenced me include Friedrich Hayek, Joseph Schumpeter, Daniel Kahneman, Lee Kuan Yew, Nassim Taleb, Karl Popper, Charles Darwin, Sun Tzu, Vidiadhar Naipaul and Jane Jacobs, to name a few. The Indian influences are even more varied and range from ancient texts such as the Ramayana, Mahabharata, and Kautilya’s Arthashastra, to more modern thinkers such as Swami Vivekananda and Sri Aurobindo.

    Out of Control chronicles the dawn of a new era in which the machines and systems that drive our economy are so complex and autonomous as to be indistinguishable from living things.

    Each self-contained chapter consists of three sections. The first describes the statistic, including how it is used and what information it provides. The second section reviews how it works, how to calculate the formula, the strengths and weaknesses of the technique, and the conditions needed for its use. The final section provides examples that use and interpret the statistic. A glossary of terms and symbols is also included.New features in the second edition include:an interactive CD with PowerPoint presentations and problems for each chapter including an overview of the problem's solution; new chapters on basic research concepts including sampling, definitions of different types of variables, and basic research designs and one on nonparametric statistics; more graphs and more precise descriptions of each statistic; and a discussion of confidence intervals.This brief paperback is an ideal supplement for statistics, research methods, courses that use statistics, or as a reference tool to refresh one's memory about key concepts. The actual research examples are from psychology, education, and other social and behavioral sciences.Materials formerly available with this book on CD-ROM are now available for download from our website www.psypress.com. Go to the book's page and look for the 'Download' link in the right-hand column.