Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles – whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry, tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently, vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors, or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure, sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and 2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real life examples – from global brewers to the semiconductor industry - showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio returns over the long run.

    

    The Complete Penny Stock Course is based on Timothy Sykes’, various training programs. His strategies have helped individuals like Tim Grittani, Michael Goode and Stephen Dux become millionaires within a couple of years. This course aims to teach you how to become a consistently profitable trader, by taking Tim’s profit-making strategies with penny stocks and presenting them in a well-structured learning format. You’ll start by getting acquainted with the concepts of market and trading psychology. Then you’ll get into the basics of day trading, how to manage your risk and the tools that will help you become profitable. Along the way, you’ll learn strategies and techniques to become consistent in your gains and develop your own trading techniques. What’s inside: - Managing expectations and understanding the market - Understanding the psychology of trading and how it affects you - Learning the basics of day trading - Learning the mechanics of trading penny stocks - Risk management and how to take safe positions - How to trade through advanced techniques - Developing your own profitable trading strategy - Real world examples and case studies No prior trading experience is required.

    But is it really as simple as that? Kevin Rodgers has his doubts, and in this fascinating inside account of the financial world over the past three decades, he explains why. Taking us from the days when traders still shouted their deals down the phone to the silent modern world of computer trading, he shows how, far more than the pursuit of personal gain, it has been the pursuit of ever-more sophisticated systems, algorithms and financial models that has undermined banking and made it chronically unstable. He also shows how, by their very nature, the computers on which modern finance now so completely depend are hopelessly ill-equipped to forestall a future crash. Both a very personal and evocative account of how banking has changed since the 1980s, and a masterclass in how it actually works, Why Aren't They Shouting also offers a nuanced, if alarming, glimpse into its likely future.

    He is an ordinary person with a knack for identifying trends and discovering great investments hidden in everyday life. In early 2007, he invested $20,000 in the stock market, and in three years it grew to just over $2 million. With Laughing at Wall Street, you'll see: -How Facebook friends helped a young parent invest in the wildly successful children's show, Chuggington--and saw her stock values climb 50% -How an everyday trip to 7-Eleven alerted a teenager to short Snapple stock--and tripled his money in seven days -How $1000 invested consecutively in Uggs, True Religion jeans, and Crocs over five years grew to $750,000 -How Michelle Obama caused J. Crew's stock to soar 186%, and Wall Street only caught up four months later! Engaging, narratively-driven, and without complicated financial analysis, Camillo's stock picking methodology proves that you do not need large sums of money or fancy market data to become a successful investor.

    Author, army veteran, and Certified Financial Planner(TM) Jeff Rose modeled this financial survival guide on the Soldier’s Handbook that is issued to all new US Army recruits. Inside the 14 modules that Rose used to systematize his essential elements of financial success, you will learn how to:• Evaluate your position and commit to change • Target and methodically eliminate debt • Clean up your credit report • Create tactical budgets • Build emergency savings • Invest for the short and long term • Determine an affordable mortgage size• And moreComplete with tales from the trenches, useful quizzes, debriefings, and more, Soldier of Finance is the strategy manual and survival guide you need to win victory over your debt and bring order and prosperity to your life.

    All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy," Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.In his previous book, "The Dollar Crisis" (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great DepressionIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years aheadOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdownAlarming but essential reading, "The New Depression" explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.

    All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the special expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle.  ANTIFRAGILE  “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal   Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.  THE BLACK SWAN “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate   A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them.  FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker   Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives.  THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times   This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

    

    Darst, author of The Art of Asset Allocation Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley Individual Investor Group -Nobody has written about the craft of money management with more insight, humor, and understanding than Adam Smith. Over the years, he has consistently separated wisdom from whimsy, brilliance from bluster, and character from chicanery.--Byron R. Wien, coauthor of Soros on Soros Chief Investment Strategist, Pequot Capital ManagementSupermoney may be even more relevant today than when it was first published nearly twenty-five years ago. Written in the bright and funny style that became Adam Smith's trademark, this book gives a view inside institutions, professionals, and the nature of markets that has rarely been shown before or since. -Adam Smith- was the first to introduce an obscure fund manager in Omaha, Nebraska, named Warren Buffett. In this new edition, Smith provides a fresh perspective in an updated Preface that contextualizes the applicability of the markets of the 1960s and 1970s to today's markets. Things change, but sometimes the more they change, the more they stay the same.

    Having peeked behind the curtain at over 10,000 companies, this book aims to demystify the buyers, the process, and the inevitably emotional journey that is selling a company.Read it. Reference it. Share it.Think about what outcomes are important to you and why. Here's a cheat sheet:I want between $__________ and $___________ of cash as a financial result. (You'll have to pay off debt, taxes, and transaction costs. Also, something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.) I want to work for ___ years in my current position, and am willing to consult with the company for ___ years thereafter. (It's okay to say you want to stick with the company long-term, or leave the day of closing.) I'm looking for a buyer/partner that will take the ________ role in the company. (Example roles include advisory board, passive partner, CEO, and CFO.) The characteristics/values of an ideal buyer would be: My ideal timeline for a transaction would be ______, but I'd be happy to sell in _____ years. My top non-financial goals are:

    Hungarian by birth, Nicolas Darvas trained as an economist at the University of Budapest. Reluctant to remain in Hungary until either the Nazis or the Soviets took over, he fled at the age of 23 with a forged exit visa and fifty pounds sterling to stave off hunger in Istanbul, Turkey. During his off hours as a dancer, he read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spending as much as eight hours a day studying.Darvas ploughed his money into a couple of stocks that had been hitting their 52-week high. He was utterly surprised that the stocks continued to rise and subsequently sold them to make a large profit. His main source of stock selection was Barron's Magazine. At the age of 39, after accumulating his fortune, Darvas documented his techniques in the book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market. The book describes his unique "Box System", which he used to buy and sell stocks. Darvas' book remains a classic stock market text to this day.

    From office buildings to shopping centers to apartment buildings, it helps you pick the right properties at the right time for the right price. Yes, there is a fun and easy way to break into commercial real estate, and this is it. This comprehensive handbook has it all. You'll learn how to find great properties, size up sellers, finance your investments, protect your assets, and increase your property's value. You'll discover the upsides and downsides of the various types of investments, learn the five biggest myths of commercial real estate investment, find out how to recession-proof your investment portfolio, and more. Discover how to:Get leads on commercial property investments Determine what a property is worth Find the right financing for you Handle inspections and fix problems Make big money in land development Manage your properties or hire a pro Exploit the tax advantages of commercial real estate Find out what offer a seller really-really wants Perform due diligence before you make a deal Raise capital by forming partnerships Investing in commercial property can make you rich in any economy. Get Commercial Real Estate For Dummies, and find out how.

    In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market , best-selling author John Allen Paulos employs his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes, and puzzles to address every thinking reader's curiosity about the market -- Is it efficient? Is it random? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? But Paulos's tour through the irrational exuberance of market mathematics doesn't end there. An unrequited (and financially disastrous) love affair with WorldCom leads Paulos to question some cherished ideas of personal finance. He explains why "data mining" is a self-fulfilling belief, why "momentum investing" is nothing more than herd behavior with a lot of mathematical jargon added, why the ever-popular Elliot Wave Theory cannot be correct, and why you should take Warren Buffet's "fundamental analysis" with a grain of salt. Like Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street , this clever and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets -- or knows someone who does.