Read this first and you will learn that the surest path to success will be to start with yourself; solve that conundrum and challenges like understanding how you do and should react to markets will come to be solvable."--Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus, Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago"When it comes to fast-moving global financial markets, professional investors strive to evaluate complex economic conditions from data analysis, economic reasoning, and professional judgment. This is what is taught in business schools. Denise Shull demonstrates how investment decision making is also determined by unconscious emotions and perceptions. "Market Mind Games" is a fascinating book that proposes a new and unexpected hypothesis about the factors that drive financial decision-making."--A.G. Malliaris, Professor of Economics and Finance, Loyola University Chicago"Denise Shull wants us to get in touch with our feelings, not to beat our bare chests and utter primordial screams. Far from it--her techniques are focused on making more money."--"Financial Times""Denise Shull's gem of a book is long overdue. . . . "Market Mind Games"] has made the ability to analyze and overcome our unconscious biases and prejudices available to everyone."--Dr. Donald T. Wargo, Department of Economics, Temple University""Market Mind Games" is iconoclastic to say the very least Pay attention to the last word in the subtitle: "risk." This book will change your perspective on how to approach and think about the markets and your life "--Michael J. Levas, Founder, Senior Managing Principal, and Director of Trading, Olympian Capital Management, LLC"Denise changes the way you look at yourself and investing. Her insights and methods are necessary to succeed in the markets, period."--Jared Levy, Portfolio Manager and author of "Your Options Handbook """Market Mind Games" offers a new school of trading psychology. Truly an important work that needs to be on the bookshelf of every serious market participant."--Mike Bellafiore, author of "One Good Trade""Masterful explanation of not only why emotionless trading is a myth, but how we can take advantage of our natural wiring to gain an edge."--Derek Hernquist, Chief Investment Officer, Integrative Capital, LLC"Shull details ways to learn how you 'feel' before you 'act' so that your buy, sell, or hold decisions become more successful."--E. Bernstein, OPUS Trading"A must-read for those who want to make their livelihood as a professional investor, trader, or algorithmic trading developer."--Larry Tabb, founder and CEO, Tabb Group"Denise Shull enlightens the reader how to effectively unlock one's psychological capital and translate that awareness into clear and concise investment decisions."--Grant Mashek, Managing Member, Palm Equity, LLC"Shull's book is not only a great read but lays out an entirely more effective approach to thinking about any decision that involves the unknown--market related or not."--Leslie Shaw, Ph.D., Behavioral Economics, and trained psychoanalystAbout the Book:What if the mystery of market crashes stems from a simple but total misunderstanding of our own minds? Could everything we think we know about ourselves--intelligence and rationality versus emotion and irrationality--be wildly off the mark? Simply put: yes.With these words, Denise Shull introduces her radical--and supremely rational-- approach to risk. Her vision stems from the indisputable fact that human beings can't make any decision at all without emotion and that emotion gets the first--and last--word when it comes to our perceptions and judgments.Shull should know. She started out managing major accounts for IBM and then chose to research unconscious emotional patterns instead of getting her MBA. Next she became a trader and trading desk manager while continuing to study biopsychology.We are all taught that sidelining our emotions is the best way to make good decisions-- Shull declares the converse: "emotions inform us." Attempting to control them actually increases the risks we take. Shull advocates treating feelings as data, and she convincingly argues that doing so eradicates the baffling question that repeats itself in our heads after making a poor investing decision: "What was I thinking?"Through a series of "lectures," Shull logically but engagingly connects emotions, beliefs, and context to our innate reaction to uncertainty and risk (yes, the two are different). In "Market Mind Games," she merges more than 20 years of studying risk decisions into a single, astoundingly effective strategy.A reasonable approach to emotion is the best and only way to win the investing game. The methods Shull details in "Market Mind Games" shake the foundation of conventional market and decision psychology. And, most important, they work.

    

    Before there was Michael Milken or Ivan Boesky, Rich rose through the ranks to amass a multibillion dollar fortune in the halcyon days of high-flying commodities trading. But he did it by cutting corners and pulling the wool over the eyes of his competitors. Eventually his companies pleaded guilty to 38 counts of tax evasion, paying $90 million in fines. Rich fled to Switzerland, where he faced a potential jail term of over 300 years if he ever returned to the United States. This is a story of greed, corruption, and money gone wild, in truly astronomical proportions. Posing as a commodities trader, A. Craig Copetas goes behind the scenes to give us a riveting, true-to-life portrait of Rich's corrupt world and his incredible escape from the law.

    Bulkowski tells you how to trade the significant events -- such as quarterly earnings announcements, retail sales, stock upgrades and downgrades -- that shape today's trading and uses statistics to back up his approach. This comprehensive new edition is a must-have reference if you're a technical investor or trader. Place your order today. The most complete reference to chart patterns available. It goes where no one has gone before. Bulkowski gives hard data on how good and bad the patterns are. A must-read for anyone that's ever looked at a chart and wondered what was happening. -- Larry Williams, trader and author of Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading

    As a guy who barely made a living as a river guide, I considered the whole process pretty impenetrable, and I was convinced that to do it right you had to make it a full-time job. Me, I was more interested in having full-time fun.So I was tempted to do what you’re probably doing right now: letting some mutual fund manager worry about growing your nest egg. Let me tell you why that decision could one day make you absolutely miserable. The fact is, because of natural market cycles, the mutual fund industry is likely to soon be facing twenty years of flat returns. That means that if you’ve got your nest egg tucked away in funds—especially the type found in most 401ks—your egg won’t get much bigger than it is now. Translation: Get ready for a retirement filled with lots of cold cuts, plenty of quality TV-watching time, and a place to live that’s too small to accommodate your visiting kids.In this book I’ll show you how I turned $1,000 into $1 million in only five years, and then proceeded to make many millions more. I came to investing as a person who wasn’t great at math, possessed zero extra cash, and wanted a life—not an extra three hours of work to do every day.Fortunately, I was introduced to The Rule.Rule #1, as famed investor Warren Buffett will tell you, is don’t lose money. Through an intriguing process that I’ll clarify in this book, not losing money results in making more money than you ever imagined. What it comes down to is buying shares of companies only when the numbers—and the intangibles—are on your side. If that sounds too good to be true, it’s because the mind-set I’ll be introducing you to leads not to bets but to certainties. Believe me, if there were anything genius-level about this, I’d still be a river guide collecting unemployment much of the year.Part of the secret is thinking of yourself as a business owner rather than a stock investor. Part is taking advantage of today’s new Internet tools, which drastically reduce the “homework factor.” (We’re talking a few minutes, tops.) Part is knowing the only five numbers that really count in valuing a potential investment. And part—maybe the most important part—is using the risk-free Rule #1 approach to consistently pay a mere 50 cents to buy a dollar’s worth of a business.What I won’t waste your time with is fluff: a lot of vague parables reminding you of what you already know and leaving you exactly where you started. This is the real deal, folks: a start-to-finish, one-baby-step-at-a-time approach that will allow you to retire ten years sooner than you planned, with more creature comforts than you ever imagined.Also available as a Random House AudioBook and eBook.

    Trading for a Living helps you master all of those three areas: * How to become a cool, calm, and collected trader * How to profit from reading the behavior of the market crowd * How to use a computer to find good trades * How to develop a powerful trading system * How to find the trades with the best odds of success * How to find entry and exit points, set stops, and take profits Trading for a Living helps you discipline your Mind, shows you the Methods for trading the markets, and shows you how to manage Money in your trading accounts so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game. To help you profit even more from the ideas in Trading for a Living, look for the companion volume--Study Guide for Trading for a Living. It asks over 200 multiple-choice questions, with answers and 11 rating scales for sharpening your trading skills. For example: Question Markets rise when * there are more buyers than sellers * buyers are more aggressive than sellers * sellers are afraid and demand a premium * more shares or contracts are bought than sold* I and II * II and III * II and IV * III and IV Answer B. II and III. Every change in price reflects what happens in the battle between bulls and bears. Markets rise when bulls feel more strongly than bears. They rally when buyers are confident and sellers demand a premium for participating in the game that is going against them. There is a buyer and a seller behind every transaction. The number of stocks or futures bought and sold is equal by definition.

    Written with the intelligent individual investor in mind, this comprehensive guide distills the Dhandho capital allocation framework of the business savvy Patels from India and presents how they can be applied successfully to the stock market. The Dhandho method expands on the groundbreaking principles of value investing expounded by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger. Readers will be introduced to important value investing concepts such as Heads, I win! Tails, I don't lose that much!, Few Bets, Big Bets, Infrequent Bets, Abhimanyu's dilemma, and a detailed treatise on using the Kelly Formula to invest in undervalued stocks. Using a light, entertaining style, Pabrai lays out the Dhandho framework in an easy-to-use format. Any investor who adopts the framework is bound to improve on results and soundly beat the markets and most professionals.

    Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

    One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible.Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenonally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge.Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

    Full of real-world examples and step-by-step explanations, this title demonstrates exactly how you can participate in the opportunities that exist in high-priced stocks for a fraction of the usual cost.

    The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with. Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed.

    Drawing on confidential internal memos and interviews with dozens of key players, Lowenstein explains not just how the fund made and lost its money but also how the personalities of Long-Term’s partners, the arrogance of their mathematical certainties, and the culture of Wall Street itself contributed to both their rise and their fall.When it was founded in 1993, Long-Term was hailed as the most impressive hedge fund in history. But after four years in which the firm dazzled Wall Street as a $100 billion moneymaking juggernaut, it suddenly suffered catastrophic losses that jeopardized not only the biggest banks on Wall Street but the stability of the financial system itself. The dramatic story of Long-Term’s fall is now a chilling harbinger of the crisis that would strike all of Wall Street, from Lehman Brothers to AIG, a decade later. In his new Afterword, Lowenstein shows that LTCM’s implosion should be seen not as a one-off drama but as a template for market meltdowns in an age of instability—and as a wake-up call that Wall Street and government alike tragically ignored.

    This is by far Dr. Steenbarger's best book and a must-have addition to any trader's bookshelf. I'll certainly be recommending it to all my friends." --Ray Barros CEO, Ray Barros Trading Group"Dr. Steenbarger has been helping traders help themselves for many years. Simply put, this book is a must-read for anyone who desires to achieve great success in the market." --Charles E. Kirk The Kirk Report"'Dr. Brett', as he is affectionately known by his blog readers, has assembled a practical guide to self coaching in this excellent book. The strategies he outlines are further enhanced with numerous resources and exercises for the reader to refer to and keep the principles fresh. I enthusiastically encourage anyone interested in bettering their trading and investing to read this book and keep it on their desk as a constant source of learning." --Brian Shannon, www.alphatrends.net author of Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes "Dr. Brett has distilled his years of experience, as both a trader and a psychologist/coach, into the 101 practical lessons found in The Daily Trading Coach. Those lessons provide effective strategies for coping with the stumbling blocks that traders often face. This book should be a cornerstone of any serious trader's library." --Michael Seneadza equities trader and blogger at TraderMike.net

    The result is a complete approach to trading that will allow you to trade confidently in a variety of markets and time frames. Written with the serious trader in mind, this reliable resource details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades-from entry to exit.Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

    Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations.Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how--even from the oil industry's first years--wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions--first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC--succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations--including mistakes to avoid--as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.