Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal--an improbably talented math professor--explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

    This title can help you understand why financial markets exist, how financial institutions serve those markets, and the various services those institutions offer.

    From students with disabilities, culturally diverse students, and students with limited English proficiency to economically disadvantaged students this text provides teachers with the tools they need in their diverse classrooms. Revised to reflect the most current research, terminology and teaching practices, the strength of this text continues to be its numerous learning activities and sample lessons addressing both elementary and secondary classrooms. This edition continues its very popular multi- chapter unit on curriculum adaptations with specific strategies and activities for teaching reading, writing, and mathematics. With a new chapter on Response to Intervention and Progress Monitoring and full integration of the RTI framework, and the increase emphasis on middle and secondary students, this text continues its reign as an outstanding resource for all general education teachers. 0131381253 / 9780131381254 Teaching Students Who are Exceptional, Diverse, and at Risk in the General Education Classroom (with MyEducationLab) Package consists of 0135140870 / 9780135140871 MyEducationLab -- Access Card 0137151799 / 9780137151790 Teaching Students Who are Exceptional, Diverse, and at Risk in the General Education Classroom

    The text shows you how to use statistical methods to design and develop new products, and new manufacturing systems and processes. You'll gain a better understanding of how these methods are used in everyday work, and get a taste of practical engineering experience through real-world, engineering-based examples and exercises. Now revised, this Fourth Edition of "Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers" features many new homework exercises, including a greater variation of problems and more computer problems.

    Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics so you can understand key points and actually use them. Learn to present data visually with charts and plots; discover the difference between taking the average with mean, median, and mode, and why it's important; learn how to calculate probability and expectation; and much more.Head First Statistics is ideal for high school and college students taking statistics and satisfies the requirements for passing the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Exam. With this book, you'll:Study the full range of topics covered in first-year statistics Tackle tough statistical concepts using Head First's dynamic, visually rich format proven to stimulate learning and help you retain knowledge Explore real-world scenarios, ranging from casino gambling to prescription drug testing, to bring statistical principles to life Discover how to measure spread, calculate odds through probability, and understand the normal, binomial, geometric, and Poisson distributions Conduct sampling, use correlation and regression, do hypothesis testing, perform chi square analysis, and moreBefore you know it, you'll not only have mastered statistics, you'll also see how they work in the real world. Head First Statistics will help you pass your statistics course, and give you a firm understanding of the subject so you can apply the knowledge throughout your life.

    Kettl and Fesler understand that the push and pull of political forces make the functions of bureaucracy ever more contentious, but no less crucial to governance.Based on reviewer feedback, and given advances in scholarship and in practice, the authors introduce the crucial topics of ethics, accountability, and leadership early on, utilizing these central ideas as touchstones throughout the book. While this text continues to focus on the core components of public administration--such as budgeting, personnel, and implementation--it's been thoroughly updated to cover recent developments, including administrative issues spotlighted during the 2008 presidential campaigns, the use of technology in government management, and the changing face of the federal workforce. Fully updated tables and figures feature a wealth of current data, and photos add visual context to the book's core concepts.What was an appendix showcasing fourteen case studies in the previous edition is now a set of fully-integrated case studies--one in each chapter--that challenges students to apply ideas and analysis as they go. Each case emphasizes the people on the front lines at the local, state, and federal levels with topics ranging from Taser use in law enforcement to the recent economic bailout. Useful discussion questions at the end of each case help shape student responses and in-class conversation.

    The author presents many specific examples from systems and comparative genomic analysis to begin to build a new, much more detailed, complex, and realistic picture of evolution. The book examines a broad range of topics in evolutionary biology including  the inadequacy of natural selection and adaptation as the only or even the main mode of evolution; the key role of horizontal gene transfer in evolution and the consequent overhaul of the Tree of Life concept;  the central, underappreciated evolutionary importance of viruses; the origin of eukaryotes as a result of endosymbiosis; the concomitant origin of cells and viruses on the primordial earth; universal dependences between genomic and molecular-phenomic variables; and the evolving landscape of constraints that shape the evolution of genomes and molecular phenomes.

    National terrorism expert Jonathan R. White provides specific examples that will enable you to understand how terrorism arises and how it functions. Dr. White gives essential historical (pre-1980) background on the phenomenon of terrorism and the roots of contemporary conflicts, includes detailed descriptions of recent and contemporary conflicts shaping the world stage, and presents theoretical and concrete information about Homeland Security organizations. Throughout, he reviews the relevant issues and challenges. With this sixth edition, Dr. White has fine-tuned the text and kept pace with the state of terrorism in today's world.

    In our modern world, we see people struggling with depression, anxiety, anger, etc. Psychologist and counselors have been using Cognitive Behavioral Therapy to solve all these struggles. A Practical Guide to CBT and Modern Psychology will allow anyone to use CBT in their lives. It doesn't matter whether or not you have a background in Psychology. In this comprehensive guide you will learn all the fundamentals used in CBT by therapists. Inside you will be exposed to the following: CBT History Techniques When and How to use CBT Examples Methods to help others with psychological struggles And much more If you're ready to understand and use the powerful techniques of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, then this is an excellent guide.

    Groundbreaking in every way when first published, this book is a simple, straightforward, direct calculus text. It's popularity is directly due to its broad use of applications, the easy-to-understand writing style, and the wealth of examples and exercises which reinforce conceptualization of the subject matter. The author wrote this text with three objectives in mind. The first was to make the book more student-oriented by expanding discussions and providing more examples and figures to help clarify concepts. To further aid students, guidelines for solving problems were added in many sections of the text. The second objective was to stress the usefulness of calculus by means of modern applications of derivatives and integrals. The third objective, to make the text as accurate and error-free as possible, was accomplished by a careful examination of the exposition, combined with a thorough checking of each example and exercise.

    The text is non-threatening and presents concepts clearly and succinctly with a conversational writing style. All statistical concepts are illustrated with solved applied examples immediately upon introduction. Self reviews and exercises for each section, and review sections for groups of chapters also support the student learning steps. Modern computing applications (Excel, Minitab, and MegaStat) are introduced, but the text maintains a focus on presenting statistics concepts as applied in business as opposed to technology or programming methods. The thirteenth edition continues as a students' text with increased emphasis on interpretation of data and results.

    Written in a concise, bulleted outline format, this well-illustrated text offers 500 USMLE-style review questions, answers, and explanations and features comprehensive content and upgraded USMLE Step 1 information.

    In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.

    It's packed with everything you need to do your best on the test--and move toward your graduate or business school degree.Only ETS can show you exactly what to expect on the test, tell you precisely how the test is scored, and give you hundreds of authentic test questions for practice! That makes this guide your most reliable and accurate source for everything you need to know about the GRE revised General Test.No other guide to the GRE General Test gives you all this: - Four complete, real tests--two in the book and two on CD-ROM - Hundreds of authentic test questions--so you can study with the real thing - In-depth descriptions of the Verbal Reasoning and Quantitative Reasoning measures plus valuable tips for answering each question type- Quantitative Reasoning problem-solving steps and strategies to help you get your best score - Detailed overview of the two types of Analytical Writing essay tasks including scored sample responses and actual raters' comments Everything you need to know about the test, straight from the test makers!

    The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.