Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Becoming an expert on the apartment syndication terminology2. Setting a specific, quantifiable goal and creating a long-term, motivating vision3. Building a powerful brand that attracts passive investors4. Evaluating and selecting the real estate market that will be the launching point for your apartment empire5. Surrounding yourself with an all-star real estate team6. Tapping into your existing network to find passive investors7. Creating a lead generation machine that pumps out qualified off-market apartment deals8. Selecting the ideal business plan to maximize returns to passive investors9. Learning the science behind evaluating, qualifying and submitting offers on apartment deals10. Preparing and presenting an apartment offering to your passive investors and securing financial commitments11. Impressing your investors by effectively implementing the business plan and exceeding their return expectations

    Another is composing classical music. Labs are creating life-forms from synthetic DNA. A doctor designs an artificial trachea, uses a 3D printer to produce it, and implants it and saves a child's life. Astonishing technological advances like these are arriving in increasing numbers. Scholar and entrepreneur Vivek Wadhwa uses this book to alert us to dozens of them and raise important questions about what they may mean for us. Breakthroughs such as personalized genomics, self-driving vehicles, drones, and artificial intelligence could make our lives healthier, safer, and easier. But the same technologies raise the specter of a frightening, alienating future: eugenics, a jobless economy, complete loss of privacy, and ever-worsening economic inequality. As Wadhwa puts it, our choices will determine if our future is Star Trek or Mad Max. Wadhwa offers us three questions to ask about every emerging technology: Does it have the potential to benefit everyone equally? What are its risks and rewards? And does it promote autonomy or dependence? Looking at a broad array of advances in this light, he emphasizes that the future is up to us to create--that even if our hands are not on the wheel, we will decide the driverless car's destination.ContentsPreface IntroductionPART ONE: The Here and Now1. A bitter taste of dystopia2. Welcome to Moore’s world3. How change will affect us personally and why choices matter4. If change is always the answer, what are the questions?PART TWO: Does the technology have the potential to benefit everyone equally?5. The amazing and scary rise of Artificial Intelligence6. Remaking education with avatars and A.I.7. We are becoming data; our doctors, softwarePART THREE: What are the risks and the rewards?8. Robotics and Biology: The inevitable merging of man and machine9. Security and privacy in an era of ubiquitous connectivity10. The drones are coming11. Designer genes, the bacteria in our guts, and precision medicinePART FOUR: Does the technology foster autonomy or dependency?12. Your own private driver: Self-driving cars, trucks, and planes13. When your scale talks to your refrigerator: The Internet of Things14. The future of your body is electric15. Almost free energy and foodConclusion: So will it be Star Trek or Mad Max?NotesAcknowledgmentsIndexAbout the authors

    “Big data” refers to our burgeoning ability to crunch vast collections of information, analyze it instantly, and draw sometimes profoundly surprising conclusions from it. This emerging science can translate myriad phenomena—from the price of airline tickets to the text of millions of books—into searchable form, and uses our increasing computing power to unearth epiphanies that we never could have seen before. A revolution on par with the Internet or perhaps even the printing press, big data will change the way we think about business, health, politics, education, and innovation in the years to come. It also poses fresh threats, from the inevitable end of privacy as we know it to the prospect of being penalized for things we haven’t even done yet, based on big data’s ability to predict our future behavior.In this brilliantly clear, often surprising work, two leading experts explain what big data is, how it will change our lives, and what we can do to protect ourselves from its hazards. Big Data is the first big book about the next big thing.www.big-data-book.com

    They set the ball rolling and wealth simply accumulates. They let their money work for them. For the author, the combination of a book, a game, a woman and an opportunity helped him get out of the rat race onto the fast track. Discover why most Pinoys are poor and the secrets of the rich Tsinoys.

    But, if you type in "white girls," the results are radically different. The suggested porn sites and un-moderated discussions about "why black women are so sassy" or "why black women are so angry" presents a disturbing portrait of black womanhood in modern society.In Algorithms of Oppression, Safiya Umoja Noble challenges the idea that search engines like Google offer an equal playing field for all forms of ideas, identities, and activities. Data discrimination is a real social problem; Noble argues that the combination of private interests in promoting certain sites, along with the monopoly status of a relatively small number of Internet search engines, leads to a biased set of search algorithms that privilege whiteness and discriminate against people of color, specifically women of color.Through an analysis of textual and media searches as well as extensive research on paid online advertising, Noble exposes a culture of racism and sexism in the way discoverability is created online. As search engines and their related companies grow in importance - operating as a source for email, a major vehicle for primary and secondary school learning, and beyond - understanding and reversing these disquieting trends and discriminatory practices is of utmost importance.An original, surprising and, at times, disturbing account of bias on the internet, Algorithms of Oppression contributes to our understanding of how racism is created, maintained, and disseminated in the 21st century.

    Douglas Hubbard helps us create a path to know the answer to almost any question in business, in science, or in life . . . Hubbard helps us by showing us that when we seek metrics to solve problems, we are really trying to know something better than we know it now. How to Measure Anything provides just the tools most of us need to measure anything better, to gain that insight, to make progress, and to succeed." -Peter Tippett, PhD, M.D. Chief Technology Officer at CyberTrust and inventor of the first antivirus software "Doug Hubbard has provided an easy-to-read, demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions. We encourage our clients to try his powerful, practical techniques." -Peter Schay EVP and COO of The Advisory Council "As a reader you soon realize that actually everything can be measured while learning how to measure only what matters. This book cuts through conventional cliches and business rhetoric and offers practical steps to using measurements as a tool for better decision making. Hubbard bridges the gaps to make college statistics relevant and valuable for business decisions." -Ray Gilbert EVP Lucent "This book is remarkable in its range of measurement applications and its clarity of style. A must-read for every professional who has ever exclaimed, 'Sure, that concept is important, but can we measure it?'" -Dr. Jack Stenner Cofounder and CEO of MetraMetrics, Inc.

    However, before you can decide on a cloud model, you need to determine what the ideal cloud service model is for your business. Helping you cut through all the haze, Architecting the Cloud is vendor neutral and guides you in making one of the most critical technology decisions that you will face: selecting the right cloud service model(s) based on a combination of both business and technology requirements.Guides corporations through key cloud design considerations Discusses the pros and cons of each cloud service model Highlights major design considerations in areas such as security, data privacy, logging, data storage, SLA monitoring, and more Clearly defines the services cloud providers offer for each service model and the cloud services IT must provide Arming you with the information you need to choose the right cloud service provider, Architecting the Cloud is a comprehensive guide covering everything you need to be aware of in selecting the right cloud service model for you.

    These are the best pieces from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world.You'll get valuable insights into:-- The strategies that produce some of the highest historical returns -- Five due diligence questions we must ask before investing -- Why we often make poor "complex" investing decisions -- The easiest, most powerful method to estimate future stock returns -- How to spend our investment gains to maximize genuine happinessThe Best Investment Writing - Volume 1 reads like a masters course in investing. See how it can help you become a better investor today.With contributions from: Jason Zweig, Gary Antonacci, Morgan Housel, Ben Hunt, Todd Tresidder, Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Meb Faber, David Merkel, Norbert Keimling, Adam Butler, Stan Altshuller, Tom McClellan, Jared Dillian, Raoul Pal, Barry Ritholtz, Ken Fisher, Chris Meredith, Aswath Damodaran, Ben Carlson, Dave Nadig, Josh Brown, Corey Hoffstein, Jason Hsu, Wes Gray, John Reese, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Jonathan Clements, Michael Kitces, Charlie Bilello, John Mauldin

    The applicable tactics and techniques can be studied in advance, helping you avoid the most common pitfalls.This is what this book is about. It's a handbook for anyone building an online marketplace. The same methods will apply whether your organization is a startup, a cooperative, a non-profit, or a big brand. Not every marketplace will be as big as Airbnb and Uber, but we believe there are thousands of marketplace ideas out there that can make for great, sustainable businesses. With the help of this book, you're one step closer to building the next one. Critical acclaim "Juho and Cristóbal have written a practical in-the-weeds guide on marketplace execution that will prove invaluable for all entrepreneurs looking to start a marketplace. No fluff, just actionable ideas." – Sangeet Paul Choudary, best-selling author of Platform Revolution and Platform Scale "Building marketplaces can be hard. The Lean Marketplace is a very useful step-by-step guide to help entrepreneurs think through the challenges and solutions to create the next Uber or Airbnb." – Boris Wertz, Founder and General Partner, Version One Ventures "Must read for every marketplace entrepreneur. I'm going to ask everyone in our team to read this book." – Bram de Zwart, Co-founder and CEO, 3D Hubs "As I'm friends with both authors, I know first hand that the information in their book is hard won from long experience helping dozens of marketplaces succeed and consulting the top experts from around the world. However, the quality and comprehensiveness of the content speaks for itself. It covers all the essentials of growing an online marketplace, and in the most straightforward way possible. It is an impressively practical, must read resource for any current or aspiring marketplace entrepreneur. I can't recommend it highly enough, but please see for yourself." – Neal Gorenflo, Co-founder of Shareable "The essential guide to building an essential marketplace." – Tristan Pollock, Co-founder, Storefront, Partner, 500 Startups "Reading Juho's and Cristobal's advice online before launching our platform helped us save so much time and avoid the most common mistakes. If you're considering building a marketplace business, read this book first. Seriously." – Agne Milukaite, Co-founder and CEO, Cycle.land "Envisioning, validating, building and growing a marketplace is no small challenge: the most important aspect to nailing this challenge down is all about avoiding losing time and energy in the myriad of wrong directions that can come up your way. This book is an essential guide, the lifeboat for the marketplace founder that faces the ocean of bootstrapping.

    Most leaders recognize that developing these clearly articulated statements is time well spent; they help keep the organization on track and pointed toward clear goals. A written leadership philosophy, which we call "The Leader's Compass", achieves the same thing on a personal level; it lets people know what you expect, what you value, how you'll act, and how you'll measure performance, with the additional benefits of making the workplace less stressful and more productive. And, like a compass, it helps to keep you, the leader, on course".

    Author, army veteran, and Certified Financial Planner(TM) Jeff Rose modeled this financial survival guide on the Soldier’s Handbook that is issued to all new US Army recruits. Inside the 14 modules that Rose used to systematize his essential elements of financial success, you will learn how to:• Evaluate your position and commit to change • Target and methodically eliminate debt • Clean up your credit report • Create tactical budgets • Build emergency savings • Invest for the short and long term • Determine an affordable mortgage size• And moreComplete with tales from the trenches, useful quizzes, debriefings, and more, Soldier of Finance is the strategy manual and survival guide you need to win victory over your debt and bring order and prosperity to your life.

    One of the great promises of the Internet and big data revolutions is the idea that we can improve the processes and routines of our work and personal lives to get more done in less time than ever before. There is no doubt that we're performing at higher scales and going faster than ever, but what if we're headed in the wrong direction?The Efficiency Paradox questions our ingrained assumptions about efficiency, persuasively showing how relying on the algorithms of platforms can in fact lead to wasted efforts, missed opportunities, and above all an inability to break out of established patterns. Edward Tenner offers a smarter way to think about efficiency, showing how we can combine artificial intelligence and our own intuition, leaving ourselves and our institutions open to learning from the random and unexpected.

    This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life.What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World...An easy read with a big benefit. --Fareed Zakaria, CNNFor those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics. --Ian Ayres, Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal. --John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS InstituteLittle did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably. --Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential EconomistA tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands. --Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of LondonI thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommend it to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and data analysis in solving problems and in creating a better world. --Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician

     Those that don’t adapt are becoming trapped in the downward spiral of a dying middle class - working harder and earning less. Entrepreneurs that understand the new paradigm, have created unprecedented wealth in their lives and the lives of those they love. In This Book You’ll Learn: — Why the century-long growth in wages came to a halt in 2000. — Why MBAs and JDs can’t get jobs and what that means for the future of work and your job. — Why The Theory of Constraints and a shift into the Fourth Economy has made entrepreneurship the highest-leveraged career path for the young and ambitious. — Why The Turkey Problem means accounting may be the riskiest profession in the 21st century while entrepreneurship may be the safest. — How entrepreneurs with second-rate degrees are leveraging the radical democracy of the Long Tail to get rich. — How the Stair Step Method and return of apprenticeships have transformed the “entrepreneurial leap" to make entrepreneurship more accessible than ever. — The scientific research on how giving up balanced living and embracing integrated living leads to more money, more meaning, and more freedom. Included (Free) Resources: Get access by visiting http://taylorpearson.me/eoj — Full Recorded Interviews with the Ten Entrepreneurs featured in The End of Jobs detailing how they launched their own successful businesses. — Taylor’s 67 must-read business books to fuel your entrepreneurial career. — 49 tools and templates to save you hundreds of hours when launching and growing a business. — A Ninety-Day goal setting template to translate the book into actionable steps — Access to a private community to discuss the book and get support from a community of like-minded individuals to inspire, motivate, and assist each other. Who Should Read This Book? Early Stage Entrepreneurs - Doubting yourself and wondering if you made a smart choice to abandon the traditional career path? In Chapter 5, The Turkey Problem, you’ll learn the difference between real and perceived risk and why Entrepreneurship is a smarter choice than ever. Established Entrepreneurs - Do you have friends, family or team members that don’t understand their choices? In chapters 12 through 14 you’ll understand how to explain the fundamental drives of your ambition. Students - Are you considering getting another degree as opposed to starting a business or going to work for an entrepreneurial business? Before you invest hundreds of thousands of dollars, read Chapter 3 to understand why credentials are getting less valuable even as degrees get more expensive. Corporate Employees - Are you in a position that feels safe but doesn’t let you expand your skills and network? In chapter 4 through 6, you’ll find out why that job might not be as safe as you think.