He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Dissecting everything from tractors and pigs to fences, hay bales, crop rotation patterns, and farm tools, Rothman gives a richly entertaining tour of the quirky details of country life. From the shapes of squash varieties to the parts of a goat; from how a barn is constructed to what makes up a beehive, every corner of the barnyard is uncovered and celebrated. A perfect gift for gardeners, locavores, homesteaders, and country-living enthusiasts alike.

    But every year thousands of research papers are published, some of which contradict each other. How can busy teachers know which research is worth investing time in reading and understanding? And how easily is that academic research translated into excellent practice in the classroom?In this thorough, enlightening and comprehensive book, Carl Hendrick and Robin Macpherson ask 18 of today's leading educational thinkers to distill the most up-to-date research into effective classroom practice in 10 of the most important areas of teaching. The result is a fascinating manual that will benefit every single teacher in every single school, in all four corners of the globe.Contributors: Assessment, marking & feedback: Dylan Wiliam & Daisy Christodoulou; Behaviour: Tom Bennett & Jill Berry; Classroom talk and questioning: Martin Robinson & Doug Lemov; Learning myths: David Didau & Pedro de Bruyckere; Motivation: Nick Rose & Lucy Crehan; Psychology and memory: Paul Kirschner & Yana Weinstein; SEN: Jarlath O Brien & Maggie Snowling; Technology: Jose Picardo & Neelam Parmar; Reading and literacy: Alex Quigley & Dianne Murphy

    From Mary, Queen of Scots, trapped by her own code, to the Navajo Code Talkers who helped the Allies win World War II, to the incredible (and incredibly simple) logisitical breakthrough that made Internet commerce secure, The Code Book tells the story of the most powerful intellectual weapon ever known: secrecy.Throughout the text are clear technical and mathematical explanations, and portraits of the remarkable personalities who wrote and broke the world’s most difficult codes. Accessible, compelling, and remarkably far-reaching, this book will forever alter your view of history and what drives it. It will also make you wonder how private that e-mail you just sent really is.

    Of course, the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag didn’t know it at the time, but they were making history, celebrating what would become a national holiday.

    Crease tells the stories behind ten of the greatest equations in human history. Was Nobel laureate Richard Feynman really joking when he called Maxwell's electromagnetic equations the most significant event of the nineteenth century? How did Newton's law of gravitation influence young revolutionaries? Why has Euler's formula been called "God's equation," and why did a mysterious ecoterrorist make it his calling card? What role do betrayal, insanity, and suicide play in the second law of thermodynamics?The Great Equations tells the stories of how these equations were discovered, revealing the personal struggles of their ingenious originators. From "1 + 1 = 2" to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, Crease locates these equations in the panoramic sweep of Western history, showing how they are as integral to their time and place of creation as are great works of art.

    Now, at a moment when mathematicians are finally moving in on a proof, Dartmouth professor Dan Rockmore tells the riveting history of the hunt for a solution.In 1859 German professor Bernhard Riemann postulated a law capable of describing with an amazing degree of accuracy the occurrence of the prime numbers. Rockmore takes us all the way from Euclid to the mysteries of quantum chaos to show how the Riemann hypothesis lies at the very heart of some of the most cutting-edge research going on today in physics and mathematics.

    The animals can’t count, use the phone, or even find out what time it is. Rulers, money, and computers have all become completely useless. . . . Can the town’s detective solve this numerical mystery? Will he ever bring the numbers back home again? Loreen Leedy’s clever rhyming text PLUS her amusing digitally painted illustrations EQUALS proof that we need math each and every day.

    Zombies: Brains and the Beanstalk is a mash-up of the insanely addictive video game and a classic fairy tale.In Plants vs. Zombies, winner of more than 30 Best Game of the Year Awards, plants—including Sunflowers, Peashooters, Wall-nuts, and Cherry Bombs—defend humans against an array of brain-chomping zombies, such as the Pole-Vaulting Zombie and the Cone Zombie.Now in a thrilling picture book for kids, Jack—of Jack and the Beanstalk fame—enters the fantastical world of the game. He will battle the zombies with his magical beanstalk fighting by his side. The fun never dies in this action-filled adventure for kids with full-color illustrations.

     Speed Mathematics teaches simple methods that will enable you to make lightning calculations in your head-including multiplication, division, addition, and subtraction, as well as working with fractions, squaring numbers, and extracting square and cube roots. Here's just one example of this revolutionary approach to basic mathematics: 96 x 97 = Subtract each number from 100. 96 x 97 = 4 3 Subtract diagonally. Either 96--3 or 97-- 4. The result is the first part of the answer. 96 x 97 = 93 4 3 Multiply the numbers in the circles. 4 x 3 = 12. This is the second part of the answer. 96 x 97 = 9312 4 3 It's that easy!

    With warmth and humor, Karen provides a wealth of insight, practical advice, and narratives, illustrating how educating "the Charlotte Mason way" actually works. In this book, you will discover how to recognize a "living book"; use narration; teach reading, spelling, composition, and vocabulary; appreciate great art, classical music, poetry, plays, and novels; keep a Nature Notebook for science; take part in hero-admiration for history, establish helpful habits; create a loving home atmosphere; and more.

    Sizzling with Danica's trademark sass and style, her fourth book, "Girls Get Curves," shows her readers how to feel confident, get in the driver's seat, and master the core concepts of high school geometry, including congruent triangles, quadrilaterals, circles, proofs, theorems, and more! Combining reader favorites like personality quizzes, fun doodles, real-life testimonials from successful women, and stories about her own experiences with illuminating step-by-step math lessons, "Girls Get Curves" will make girls feel like Danica is their own personal tutor. As hundreds of thousands of girls already know, Danica's irreverent, lighthearted approach opens the door to math success and higher scores, while also boosting their self-esteem in all areas of life. "Girls Get Curves "makes geometry understandable, relevant, and maybe even a little (gasp!) fun for girls.

    Having just completed his masterpiece, The General Theory of Relativity—which provided a brand-new theory of gravity and promised a new perspective on the cosmos as a whole—he set out at once to share his excitement with as wide a public as possible in this popular and accessible book.Here published for the first time as a Penguin Classic, this edition of Relativity features a new introduction by bestselling science author Nigel Calder.

    Language development is significantly enriched by exposure to good poetry. This book is an important resource because it provides in one volume many poems that concern noble actions or ideas presented in beautiful patterns of sound.This book contains all the poems recommended in Berquist's best-selling Designing Your Classical Curriculum. The extensive selection includes poems by Robert Louis Stevenson, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, Robert Browning, William Shakespeare, G.K. Chesterton, William Butler Yeats, Robert Frost, and many others. There are three indices to help locate specific poems. This book also includes dictation selections that are useful tools in the development of the child's writing ability, as well as study questions and answers for each poem.

    The novel approach taken here banishes determinants to the end of the book and focuses on the central goal of linear algebra: understanding the structure of linear operators on vector spaces. The author has taken unusual care to motivate concepts and to simplify proofs. For example, the book presents - without having defined determinants - a clean proof that every linear operator on a finite-dimensional complex vector space (or an odd-dimensional real vector space) has an eigenvalue. A variety of interesting exercises in each chapter helps students understand and manipulate the objects of linear algebra. This second edition includes a new section on orthogonal projections and minimization problems. The sections on self-adjoint operators, normal operators, and the spectral theorem have been rewritten. New examples and new exercises have been added, several proofs have been simplified, and hundreds of minor improvements have been made throughout the text.