Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    Up to 96% of people fail to achieve their goals. But it’s so hard to form those new habits. You know you should eat better, save some money, and make time to date, but isn’t it easier to just sit on the couch? The Secret to Becoming a Millionaire If 96% of people fail to achieve their goals, that still leaves 4% who are in top shape, earning a great income, and finding the love they’ve dreamed of. What are the secrets of these top performers? What do Tony Robbins, Jim Rohn, and Steven Covey know that you don’t? What if there was a way to copy their secrets for success so you too could achieve your dreams? What if you could make healthy habits automatic so you never have to make another New Year’s resolution ever again? The Simple Solution that’s Right Under Your Nose Though the words consistency and habits may evoke eye rolls and a feeling of, “That’s too simple!” dive a little deeper and you’ll find the secret formula for success you’ve been waiting for. Michal Stawicki, ex-video game addict turned “Mr. Consistency,” has laid out a veritable formula for getting what you want in life. Whether it’s money, love, fame, a better body, or a better relationship with your kids, The Art of Persistence takes readers step by step from where they’re standing—in chaos, dysfunction, and dissatisfaction—to more happiness and fulfillment. No more broken promises to yourself—this time it’s really different.

    Textbook theory and evidenced-based speech therapy techniques are applied in an enjoyable and user-friendly way. Whether you’re a parent or a professional, Kimberly shows you how to engage your toddler with play routines that stimulate speech while having fun. The guide includes detailed steps, numerous examples, and play routine activities to facilitate learning and language development. Speech language pathologists and parents describe My Toddler Talks as: “a go to resource”, “unintimidating and user-friendly” and “simply fabulous!”MY TODDLER TALKS includes:•Effective language stimulation tips, techniques and strategies used by professional speech therapists•Advice on how to maximize your child’s potential without causing pressure or frustration•25 fun play routines designed to improve your child’s speech and language skills•Straightforward instructions with many examples to foster understanding and empowerment•Step by step directions on how to elicit communication from your child•Charts to monitor progress with your child•A system to track your child’s word growth•Ways to incorporate speech development activities into your daily routines•Recommended goals to drive results•Ideas for troubleshooting development setbacksMY TODDLER TALKS is the perfect resource for:•Parents, Grandparents & Caregivers•Speech Therapists•Speech Therapy Grad Students•Early Intervention Specialists•Early Childhood Educators•Occupational & Physical Therapists

    'Welcome to Islam' is a step-by-step guide to help people who have just accepted Islam. It teaches them the absolute basics of Islam that they should learn within their first month of being a Muslim. This work is not another introductory book on Islam but rather a step-by-step instruction manual that allows you to start practicing what you learn immediately. It also contains valuable advice on some common challenges that new Muslims often face.

    

    Now DK brings this ancient practice into the 21st century, explaining how to grow and care for bonsai trees with a clear step-by-step approach.Offering easy-to-follow advice and simple photography, Bonsai demystifies the art of bonsai with sequences covering the traditional styles of Chokkan, Moyogi, Shakan, and Kengai, as well as deadwood bonsai styles such as Ishizuki, Yose Uye, and Sharimiki.For bonsai enthusiasts in search of fresh ideas, innovative techniques, and new ways to display their living art, Bonsai is the must-have book of the season.

    W. E. Fairbairn (1885-1960) spent over thirty years in the tough environment of the Riot Squads of China's Shanghai Municipal Police. In order to lower levels of Police mortality at the hands of Chinese Tongs, he studied ancient Chinese and Japanese martial arts, including Ju-jitsu, and was the first foreigner to be awarded a black belt in the discipline. He developed his own system which he called 'Defendu'. At the outbreak of the Second World War, he was recruited by Britain's Special Operations Executive as an Instructor in unarmed combat and expounded the deadly mysteries of attack and defence to scores of trainee agents about to be dropped into occupied Europe. His methods were approved and officially adopted throughout the British army. Fairbairn also developed weapons and defence aids such as bullet proof vests. He is best known as the co-inventor of the famous Sykes-Fairbairn knife. In this book he expounds his distilled experience of unarmed combat. Fully illustrated, it shows how to deliver deadly blows with hand, fist, knee and boot; wrist, bear- and strangle holds (and how to break them); how to throw an enemy, and how to break their backs; how to disarm a pistol-wielding attacker; and securing a prisoner. The book also contains a chapter on the use of the rifle in close combat by Captain P. N. Walbridge.

    Niki Hardy has been there, screaming, "God, is this it? Where's the abundant life you promised? Are you even listening?"Life might not be fair, but through loss, grief, and cancer, Niki discovered life doesn't have to be pain-free to be full. With sensitivity and without Christianese or stock answers she invites women to replace the lies they believe about themselves and God with sound biblical teaching and his unwavering promises. Through 7 practical steps, with hands-on questions, actions, and prayers, she equips readers to grasp the full life Jesus came to give them, right where they are.No matter how broken a life might seem, the abundant life Jesus promised is available--now and always. Let Niki show you the way.

    By digging into the data, Oster found that much of the conventional pregnancy wisdom was wrong. In CRIBSHEET, she now tackles an even great challenge: decision making in the early years of parenting. As any new parent knows, there is an abundance of often-conflicting advice hurled at you from doctors, family, friends, and the internet. From the earliest days, parents get the message that they must make certain choices around feeding, sleep, and schedule or all will be lost. There's a rule--or three--for everything. But the benefits of these choices can be overstated, and the tradeoffs can be profound. How do you make your own best decision?

    In 1994 Michael and Debi Pearl published To Train Up a Child .  The book has sold over 625,000 copies, becoming “the handbook on child training” for many families.  The Pearls received so many child training questions in the mail that they began publishing a free bimonthly magazine to answer them— No Greater Joy .  As the subscriptions grew into the tens of thousands, subscribers kept asking for back issues, thus the publication of No Greater Joy Volume One, Volume Two and Volume Three —each book representing about two years of articles from back issues of the magazine.  If you have read To Train Up a Child and you have questions, chances are you will find the answers in No Greater Joy Volume One, Volume Two, or Volume Three .

    Created by a mother (and power blogger) whose young children were diagnosed with severe food allergies and herself has multiple food sensitivities, this collection of family-friendly recipes means no more need to make multiple meals; everyone can enjoy every single dish because all are free of the major allergy triggers. With an 8-week elimination diet to help readers identify allergens and a game plan for transitioning to a cleaner, safer way of eating that is kid-tested and parent-approved, Pure Delicious changes cooking for the family from a minefield to an act of love.

    In this book, Sunshine Cobb covers all the foundational skills, with lessons for constructing both simple and complex forms from clay. Ceramic artists will also find a variety of next-level techniques and tips: designing templates and replicating pieces, lidded vessels, using molds, a variety of decorative techniques, and other avenues of exploration are all inside.Artist features and inspirational galleries include work from today's top working artists, such as Bryan Hopkins, Lindsay Oesterritter, Liz Zlot Summerfield, Bandana Pottery, Shoko Teruyama, Courtney Martin, Sam Chung, Deborah Schwartzkopf, and many more.  Take your hand building skills—and your artwork—to the next level with Mastering Hand Building. The Mastering Ceramics series is for artists who never stop learning. With compelling projects, expert insight, step-by-step photos, and galleries of work from today’s top artists, these books are the perfect studio companions. Also available from the series: Mastering the Potter's Wheel and Mastering Kilns and Firing.

    

    In his latest book, management expert Ken Miller discusses how the processes of state and local government became so complicated and inefficient – and how to start cleaning up the mess. With his typical irreverent and funny tone, Ken lays out the simple ways that public-sector leaders can tear down all the twisted, broken parts of government and rebuild it stronger, leaner and better equipped to help citizens. Full of clear, concise tips on increasing government’s capacity, Extreme Government Makeover is essential reading for everyone in government, from top-level executives to managers and employees on the front lines.What you’ll learn in Extreme Government Makeover• The one and only thing government needs to focus on to get out of this crisis• How government can perform its vital functions 80 percent faster, at less cost and with better quality• The DNA of government complexity and how we can genetically modify it • How to spot the “moldy” thinking that is making us all sick• How to get rid of 40 percent of your agency’s workload• How to find the hidden costs of government• What the next generation of customers and employees are going to do to your operations• Why technology isn’t the answer• Most importantly, you’ll learn a new way of seeing the work of government – and a better way to make that work great.

    Unfortunately, in trying to help develop these traits, parents can increase their children’s anxiety and make them afraid of making mistakes without realising it. Raising Confident Kids will equip you to avoid common pitfalls and create positive parenting habits. Bestselling parenting coach Nadim Saad draws on the latest research in child psychology, neuroscience and the Growth Mindset to offer parents 10 practical ways to nurture their children's self-esteem and ensure that they grow to become happy and confident adults. Discover the 5 typical mistakes that can affect children's self-esteem and how to avoid them Quickly learn and apply step-by-step solutions to grow your children's confidence and self-esteem Help your children develop a Growth Mindset so that they embrace new challenges and are unafraid of making mistakes Gain practical understanding of how to apply these tips and techniques to family life thanks to real-life examples