His helpful hints, always warmly received, grew from a handful of memos to an underground classic primer. That primer evolved into a book of how-to information about graduate study, which is essential reading for graduate students and undergraduates in political science, sociology, anthropology, economics, and history - and for their advisers.-How should we frame, assess, and apply theories in the social sciences? I am unpersuaded by the view that the prime rules of scientific method should differ between hard science and social science. Science is science.-A section on case studies shows novices the ropes.-Van Evera contends the realm of dissertations is often defined too narrowly Making and testing theories are not the only games in town.... If everyone makes and tests theories but no one ever uses them, then what are they for?-In Helpful Hints on Writing a Political Science Ph.D. Dissertation, Van Evera focuses on presentation, and on broader issues of academic strategy and tactics.-Van Evera asks how political scientists should work together as a community. All institutions and professions that face weak accountability need inner ethical rudders that define their obligations in order to stay on course.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Set in the aftermath of WW2, this gripping saga is richly evocative of the period and shows the true grit of our heroine Ruby.

    This book provides an applications-oriented introduction to multivariate data analysis for the non-statistician, by focusing on the fundamental concepts that affect the use of specific techniques.

    It is the best and most successful guide to reading comprehension for the general reader. And now it has been completely rewritten and updated. You are told about the various levels of reading and how to achieve them – from elementary reading, through systematic skimming and inspectional reading, to speed reading, you learn how to pigeonhole a book, X-ray it, extract the author's message, criticize. You are taught the different reading techniques for reading practical books, imaginative literature, plays, poetry, history, science and mathematics, philosophy and social science. Finally, the authors offer a recommended reading list and supply reading tests whereby you can measure your own progress in reading skills, comprehension and speed.This a previously-published edition of ISBN 9780671212094

    Containing information necessary for teachers to teach math through problem solving, this resource is filled with engaging activities from every strand of mathematics.

     I believe that everyone who needs (and wants) a Service Dog should be able to have one, so I'm retiring from my Service Dog Training Coach business to focus on consolidating my lifetime of training experience into books (as well as dedicating time to answer questions for my readers, on the phone or via Skype as well as on the Facebook Group (facebook.com/groups/180613442286351/) all of which will be available for as long as my health permits, in case you have a training question that the book didn’t answer). If you are training your own Service Dog, this book will help guide you through the process. It starts with the basics, creating a firm foundation to build upon for any type of Service Dog that you may be training. When you finish the 30 Day Intensive Training Program included in this book, your dog will have several foundation behaviors that he'll need to do his Work as a Service Dog, as well as one Task that can be customized to the individual for a number of types of disabilities. Your dog will learn to have good manners in public, and also to conduct himself in a way that will allow him to keep his attention on his Service Dog Work. I'll show you how to teach your dog to help you deal with your life challenges, and with this method of training, he will “learn how to learn," which will make your job of continuing his training even easier! This is the Facebook group that I mentor in order to provide additional support for readers of my books: Please join us there! :) facebook.com/groups/180613442286351/

    "Odds on Favorite," Book Two, released April 9, 2012. Dawn never meant to hurt anyone. She never meant to live a lie; she never meant to fall in love. Sometimes things just happen. As the mysteries and excitement of Thoroughbred racing unfold, so do the details of Dawn Fioritto's life and past. While covering a story for the local newspaper, Dawn becomes captivated by an enchanting old man and with life behind the scenes at Nottingham Downs. She returns under the guise of writing a novel. For two years, she comes and goes, employed as a groom in relative obscurity. No one knows who she is, or where she's been. She is an enigma, harmless and protected, in a racing world where one lives only for the moment, where yesterday is gone, and where there may be no tomorrow. Until the day, some starts asking questions.... Critically acclaimed author MaryAnn Myers has done it again! As with her previous page-turning novels, Call Me Lydia and Maple Dale, she will keep you spellbound well into the night. Give in to the magic, settle back in your favorite chair and enjoy.

    Dive into this collection of 10 contemporary romance novels and novellas ranging from sweet to sizzling: Up Close and Personal by MAGDA ALEXANDER NEW RELEASE! Desperate to pay her mother's medical bills, Caitlyn Bennett's thrilled when Sterling MacKay hires her as his personal assistant. But soon the reclusive billionaire demands things no gal Friday should be expected to do. Should she walk away? Or surrender to her desires … and him? Split Decision by USA Today Bestselling Author WENDY ELY NEW RELEASE! Sports reporter Grace Avery is up for a promotion, but only if she gets an interview with the notoriously private, heavy weight champion, Rally Brewer. Grace discovers who Rally is beyond the boxing ring. Little does anyone know, as Grace gets Rally to open up, a two-year-old secret is in jeopardy. Is revealing his secret worth gaining Grace’s love? Stud Unleashed: Barry by KYLIE GILMORE NEW RELEASE! Successful, not-so-great-with-the-ladies, nice guy Barry Furnukle can’t believe his luck when Amber Lewis agrees to date him. But when the world’s most awesome date (birding and fro-yo) lands him in the friend zone, it’s time to unleash his inner stud to win the woman he can’t forget. Setting Sail by ALLIE BONIFACE NEW RELEASE! When real estate agent Jason McClintock discovers his billionaire client’s latest target is the historic diner owned and run by his high school crush, Pearl DeVane, things get more than a little complicated. Does forging a successful career mean giving up everything from his past, including the only woman to ever steal his heart? Tempting Vivi by LIZ KELLY NEW RELEASE! Graduating college and starting her dream job, Vivi DuVal’s confidence is severely shaken, sending her spinning right into the arms of heroic Lane Kettering. But their ultra romantic beach fling may turn into nothing but tabloid fodder when Lane’s secret is revealed, tossing Vivi into some very hot, tempting water. A Masterpiece Of Our Love by NIKKI LYNN BARRETT Their lives are entwined by a tragedy. Now twenty years later, neither Becca or Hunter can deny the deeper feelings they have for the other. Their bond is tested when an unknown face from the past wants them to remember the entire events of the fateful crash that changed their lives. Escape: Part One by SYDNEY HOLMES When beautiful and mysterious Rowan Baker moves upstairs from Shane Adams, he’s instantly captivated, but as an experienced Private Investigator, he can’t shake the suspicion that Rowan is hiding something. Rowan is good at keeping her distance from people, but can’t seem to stay away from Shane. The closer they get, the more she fears he won’t accept her if he learns the truth.Borrowed Stilettos by REBECCA J. CLARK Plans go hilariously awry when mild-mannered Audrey Thompson dresses as Ava, her flamboyant but cowardly twin, in order to break up with Ava's fiancé, Zach Banister. However, as Audrey pretends to be Ava—which means stuffing her bra and tottering around in borrowed stilettos—she can’t help falling for Zach herself. Little does she know he has his own agenda, one that involves a seduction she can’t refuse. Geek God by VICTORIA BARBOUR Looks can be deceiving. Just ask Classics professor Jillian Carew.

    With a cruel council leading the only safe city of it's kind in this world, she will have to prove her worth to stay as well as help this city as it is the target for two evil wizards who seek to destroy the city and it's ruling council.Will the council's mighty army of guardians be enough to repel the onslaught of the two wizards' wrath?To help the city and also get back home, she will need the help of the greatest mathematician of all time, Archimedes. In a world where math is magic, Alex wishes she paid more attention in math class.

     On the outside, there is nothing remarkable about Ellie Cavannaugh. Of average height, average looks, she is sensible and wholly competent. But inside, she has the soul of a goddess. Nik Deimos is a god. The son of Ares and Aphrodite, his duplicitous nature often has mortals cowering in fear or writhing in lust. Except for his personal assistant, that is. She seems wholly unaffected. And it intrigues him. The more he learns about Ellie, the more he is convinced she was meant to be his. There is only one problem: Ellie is already married.

    He shows you how to create an amazing learning environment that actually makes discipline, rules and consequences obsolete, no matter if you're a new teacher or a 30-year veteran teacher. Teachers they make movies about are innovative, engaging, and beloved Hacking Classroom Management is about putting the F word--FUN--into your teaching, and Mike Roberts shows you how to do this, while meeting your standards and teaching your curriculum.  Hacking Classroom Management shows you how to Build lasting relationships with your students Maximize teaching time Reduce behavior issues Enhance student ownership Improve parental involvement Experts love the Movie Teacher philosophy "No matter what grade you teach, there’s something of great value inside. Two Big Thumbs UP!" -Alan Sitomer, CA Teacher of the Year and Author of Short Writes"Immensely fun and illuminating to read!" -Jeffery D. Wilhelm, Distinguished Professor of English Education at Boise State University"Hollywood might not make a movie about you, even if you read and apply every suggestion in this book, but you and your students are much more likely to feel like classroom stars because of it." -Chris Crowe, English Professor at BYU, Past President of ALAN, author of Death Coming Up the Hill, Getting Away with Murder: The True Story of the Emmett Till Case; Mississippi Trial, 1955; and many other YA booksWave Goodbye to classroom management issuesGrab Hacking Classroom Management today, become a movie teacher tomorrow, and forget about classroom management FOREVER!

    "Basics of Web Design: HTML5 and CSS3, 2e "covers the basic concepts that web designers need to develop their skills: Introductory Internet and Web concepts Creating web pages with HTML5 Configuring text, color, and page layout with Cascading Style Sheets Configuring images and multimedia on web pages Web design best practices Accessibility, usability, and search engine optimization considerations Obtaining a domain name and web host Publishing to the Web

    Wilczek’s groundbreaking work in quantum physics was inspired by his intuition to look for a deeper order of beauty in nature. In fact, every major advance in his career came from this intuition: to assume that the universe embodies beautiful forms, forms whose hallmarks are symmetry—harmony, balance, proportion—and economy. There are other meanings of “beauty,” but this is the deep logic of the universe—and it is no accident that it is also at the heart of what we find aesthetically pleasing and inspiring.Wilczek is hardly alone among great scientists in charting his course using beauty as his compass. As he reveals in A Beautiful Question, this has been the heart of scientific pursuit from Pythagoras, the ancient Greek who was the first to argue that “all things are number,” to Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and into the deep waters of twentiethcentury physics. Though the ancients weren’t right about everything, their ardent belief in the music of the spheres has proved true down to the quantum level. Indeed, Wilczek explores just how intertwined our ideas about beauty and art are with our scientific understanding of the cosmos.Wilczek brings us right to the edge of knowledge today, where the core insights of even the craziest quantum ideas apply principles we all understand. The equations for atoms and light are almost literally the same equations that govern musical instruments and sound; the subatomic particles that are responsible for most of our mass are determined by simple geometric symmetries. The universe itself, suggests Wilczek, seems to want to embody beautiful and elegant forms. Perhaps this force is the pure elegance of numbers, perhaps the work of a higher being, or somewhere between. Either way, we don’t depart from the infinite and infinitesimal after all; we’re profoundly connected to them, and we connect them. When we find that our sense of beauty is realized in the physical world, we are discovering something about the world, but also something about ourselves.Gorgeously illustrated, A Beautiful Question is a mind-shifting book that braids the age-old quest for beauty and the age-old quest for truth into a thrilling synthesis. It is a dazzling and important work from one of our best thinkers, whose humor and infectious sense of wonder animate every page. Yes: The world is a work of art, and its deepest truths are ones we already feel, as if they were somehow written in our souls.

    Children read more fluently, write with greater ease, and spell more accurately when they know these high-frequency words! These fun, ready-to-go practice pages let kids trace, copy, manipulate, cut and paste, and write each sight word on their own. Features words from the Dolch Word List, a commonly recognized core of sight words. Also includes games and extension activities. For use with Grades K-2.