Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    The text provides a thorough, how-to explanation of each of the steps of the design process--from initial contact with the client to a completed master plan. The text's numerous illustrations and useful case study examples offer a rich learning experience for students. Whether you are just starting your design career or are a current practitioner, this valuable resource is sure to enhance your skills and knowledge.

    Macroeconomics1. Maximizing UtilityDecreasing Marginal Utility | Opportunity Costs2. Evaluating Production PossibilitiesProduction Possibilities Frontiers | Absolute and Comparative Advantage3. DemandDeterminants of Demand | Elasticity of Demand | Change in Demand vs. Change in Quantity Demanded4. SupplyDeterminants of Supply | Elasticity of Supply | Change in Supply vs. Change in Quantity Supplied5. Market EquilibriumHow Market Equilibrium is Reached | The Effect of Changes in Supply and Demand6. Government InterventionPrice Ceilings and Price Floors | Taxes and Subsidies7. Costs of ProductionMarginal Cost of Production | Fixed vs. Variable Costs | Short Run vs. Long Run | Sunk Costs | Economic Costs vs. Accounting Costs8. Perfect CompetitionFirms Are Price Takers | Making Decisions at the Margin | Consumer and Producer Surplus9. MonopolyMarket Power | Deadweight Loss with a Monopoly | Monopolies and Government10. OligopolyCollusion | Cheating the Cartel | Government Intervention in Oligopolies11. Monopolistic CompetitionCompeting via Product Differentiation | Loss of Surplus with Monopolistic CompetitionConclusion: The Insights and Limitations of Economics

    Yet residents of compact urban centers, David Owen shows, individually consume less oil, electricity, and water than other Americans. They live in smaller spaces, discard less trash, and, most important of all, spend far less time in automobiles. Residents of Manhattan--the most densely populated place in North America--rank first in public-transit use and last in per-capita greenhouse gas production, and they consume gasoline at a rate that the country as a whole hasn't matched since the mid-1920s, when the most widely owned car in the United States was the Ford Model T. They are also among the only people in the United States for whom walking is still an important means of daily transportation. These achievements are not accidents. Spreading people thinly across the countryside may make them feel green, but it doesn't reduce the damage they do to the environment. In fact, it increases the damage, while also making the problems they cause harder to see and to address. Owen contends that the environmental problem we face, at the current stage of our assault on the world's nonrenewable resources, is not how to make teeming cities more like the pristine countryside. The problem is how to make other settled places more like Manhattan, whose residents presently come closer than any other Americans to meeting environmental goals that all of us, eventually, will have to come to terms with.

    Now, he's a man on a mission, the founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy, crisscrossing the country in a grassroots campaign to change the way we look at energy in this country. While pundits proffer false new promises of green energy independence, or flatly deny the existence of a problem, Hofmeister offers an insider's view of what's behind the energy companies' posturing, and how politicians use energy misinformation, disinformation, and lack of information to get and stay elected. He tackles the energy controversy head-on, without regard for political correctness. He also provides a new framework for solving difficult problems, identifying solutions that will lead to a future of comfortable lifestyles, affordable and clean energy, environmental protection, and sustained economic competitiveness.

    It was founded in a bizarre but momentous "Land Run" in 1889, when thousands of people lined up along the borders of Oklahoma Territory and rushed in at noon to stake their claims. Since then, it has been a city torn between the wild energy that drives its outsized ambitions, and the forces of order that seek sustainable progress. Nowhere was this dynamic better realized than in the drama of the Oklahoma City Thunder basketball team's 2012-13 season, when the Thunder's brilliant general manager, Sam Presti, ignited a firestorm by trading future superstar James Harden just days before the first game. Presti's all-in gamble on "the Process"—the patient, methodical management style that dictated the trade as the team’s best hope for long-term greatness—kicked off a pivotal year in the city's history, one that would include pitched battles over urban planning, a series of cataclysmic tornadoes, and the frenzied hope that an NBA championship might finally deliver the glory of which the city had always dreamed.Boom Town announces the arrival of an exciting literary voice. Sam Anderson, former book critic for New York magazine and now a staff writer at the New York Times magazine, unfolds an idiosyncratic mix of American history, sports reporting, urban studies, gonzo memoir, and much more to tell the strange but compelling story of an American city whose unique mix of geography and history make it a fascinating microcosm of the democratic experiment. Filled with characters ranging from NBA superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook; to Flaming Lips oddball frontman Wayne Coyne; to legendary Great Plains meteorologist Gary England; to Stanley Draper, Oklahoma City's would-be Robert Moses; to civil rights activist Clara Luper; to the citizens and public servants who survived the notorious 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building, Boom Town offers a remarkable look at the urban tapestry woven from control and chaos, sports and civics.

    

     I have described the fundamental concepts of Price Action in the Part I, the basic knowledge which any trader needs. In Part II, I have illustrate seven TRAP setups you can find on any chart, along with examples and studies for you to better understand the TRAP concept. The only consistent setup you will find on every day, every market and every time frame. • Common Trap • The “Stop-Loss” Trap • “The Giant” Trap • “Failed Breakout” Trap • “Back to Back” Trap (Double-Trap) • News Trap • Morning Specials Trap setups come with minimal risk and maximum potential reward. It’s very simple to understand and exploit. This EBook is written in simplest English, that everybody can understand the complexity of market within 1 week.

    Detroit, once the richest city in the nation, is now its poorest. Once the vanguard of America’s machine age—mass production, automobiles, and blue-collar jobs—Detroit is now America’s capital for unemployment, illiteracy, foreclosure, and dropouts. A city the size of San Francisco and Manhattan could neatly fit into Detroit’s vacant lots. In another life, Charlie LeDuff won the Pulitzer Prize reporting for The New York Times. But all that is behind him now, after returning to find his hometown in total freefall. Detroit is where his mother’s flower shop was firebombed; where his sister lost herself to drugs; where his brother works in a factory cleaning Chinese-manufactured screws so they can be repackaged as “Made in America.” With the steel-eyed reportage that has become his trademark—and the righteous indignation only a native son possesses—LeDuff sets out to uncover what destroyed his city. He embeds with a local fire brigade struggling to defend its neighborhood against systemic arson and bureaucratic corruption. He investigates state senators and career police officials, following the money to discover who benefits from Detroit’s decline. He befriends union organizers, homeless do-gooders, embattled businessmen, and struggling homeowners, all ordinary people holding the city together by sheer determination. Americans have hoped for decades that Detroit was an exception, an outlier. What LeDuff reveals is that Detroit is, once and for all, America’s city: It led us on the way up, and now it is leading us on the way down. Detroit can no longer be ignored because what happened there is happening out here. Redemption is thin on the ground in this ghost of a city, but Detroit: An American Autopsy is no hopeless parable. Instead, LeDuff shares a deeply human drama of colossal greed, ignorance, endurance, and courage. Detroit is an unbelievable story of a hard town in a rough time filled with some of the strangest and strongest people our country has to offer—and a black comic tale of the absurdity of American life in the twenty-first century.

    Hop on a bike and that view will brighten drastically. Travels with Willie is about finding adventure and facing fear, embarrassing blunders and language barriers, ice cream and kindness, Cuba and Colombia, Turkey and Thailand, the world's steepest street and the world's cheapest engagement ring, catching a thief and losing a zebra, a father's touch and a farmer's embrace, buying time and spending another night. Fellow bicycle travelers will smile with recognition, and arm-chair travelers might find themselves wandering into a bike shop, looking for a passport to adventure.

    

    Updated just in time for 2016, this guide is the freshest on the market. Amazon Echo is not just a piece of hardware, it is not just the cylindrical product it appears to be. It is a revolutionary facilitator of your dream lifestyle, and the great news is that it just keeps on improving with every update! Amazon Echo takes the Intelligent Personal Assistant market from binary to human. The times of receiving unconvincing, often unhelpful and completely robotic responses from our devices is over and Echo is here to lead the way. Aside from covering the basics in detail, from unpacking to set-up to synchronization with your home devices, this user guide will cover the full range of features on offer with your Amazon Echo. Changing your wake word Understanding and using your Dialog History Controlling parts of your home with your voice How to use the Amazon Echo app How to get Echo to give you information, from live sports scores to the weather in Dubai! How to stream music through Echo's impressive speakers How to shop with your voice Why you will never need an alarm clock again How to handle the Kitchen with Echo's help Travel and traffic information specific to your journey or commute How to manage your shopping and to-do list How to enjoy Audibles wide range of audio books with your Amazon Echo Getting the latest news Some funny little Easter eggs that are built into the device! And plenty more! Amazon Echo is changing people's lives all over the world and this guide will help you change your own. If you are deciding whether to purchase the device, have a read through my guide and I'm certain by the time you are finished, there will be only one option in your mind! This book is available through Kindle Unlimited.

    

    Join this pregnant mom of two as she journeys yet again through the rough and tumble life of a pregger. Boldly proclaiming taboo truths on those touchy subjects that books gloss over and doctors 'forget' to mention.

    In Glasgow, in the 1980s neither the Police nor the Public could understand why grown men were fighting over the rights to sell ice cream, the violence was extreme, and the streets of the housing estates were turned into war zones. Crowds of youths gathered on the street corners, while adults hung from their flat windows watching real-life scenes far more exciting than anything they could see on TV the smashing of Ice cream vans and cars, slashings and stabbings of rival Ice cream men were a nightly occurrence. And the reason behind the violence was that you could earn more money selling Ice cream than you could from selling drugs. The lack of shops in the vast run-down housing estates with thousands of families who had money to spend was a captured market providing an excellent living for the Italian families who controlled the Ice cream trade in Glasgow. Tam McGraw was building a reputation as an up and coming gangster who led a team that specialised in post office, factory, and cash and carry raids throughout Scotland. Tam McGraw realised that he could earn a lot more money a much easier way than robbing post offices, he could sell Ice cream. But first Tam had to test the strength of the Italians and the reaction of the police. McGraw went for the jugular right from the start. He knew Marchetti would not give in easily, and they would try to defend their territory. So he started with Carntyne one of Marchetti's most lucrative routes. Marchetti Brothers were about to suffer brutality and destruction of a kind they could never have imagined in their wildest nightmares. McGraw planned to be the Ice Cream King of Scotland, and Carntyne is where he would lay the foundations of his throne. Nothing or no one would stand in his way. This is the real story of the Glasgow Ice Cream Van Wars. The shocking violence mixed with a decent portion of Glaswegian humour will keep you turning the pages until the end. Written in a broad Glaswegian dialect with a lot of swearing, the author writes as he speaks. This book might not be suitable for those who prefer perfect grammar and proper English. But if you can see past that then I am sure you will find it an enjoyable read. Teddy Rennoc.